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Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio: The number of symptomatic individuals who die of the disease among all individuals experiencing symptoms from the infection. This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported cases, because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die. This parameter reflects the existing standard of care and may be affected by the introduction of new therapeutics.
Each scenario is based on a set of numerical values for biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. These values—called parameter values—can be used to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19in U.S. states and localities. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19.
originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: awhispersecho
aren't those scenarios, and not actual data?
Not trying to anger anyone, just looking at facts.
The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables. 19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies.
With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC [source], this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City
Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)
Actual Cases with an outcome as of May 1 = estimated actual recovered (1,671,351) + estimated actual deaths (23,430) = 1,694,781.
originally posted by: awhispersecho
Of course the numbers would be much lower if not for the terrible nursing home situations and probably are much lower because many more people have surely had it and not been tested or confirmed. Of course this is nowhere to be found in mainstream media or social networks which is odd because I thought we were supposed to believe the science and the CDC. .......
originally posted by: texas thinker
a reply to: Gryphon66
It's been a long day, perhaps my math skills are rusty.
If I divide deaths number by total cases confirmed number I get 0.06 percent.
Can that be right?
originally posted by: hutch622
a reply to: texas thinker
Try total cases divided by deaths instead . That gives you a ratio of roughly one in 16 die from the infect . Divide 100 by 16 for your percentage .