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Hopes that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready by September are hanging in the balance, as the scientists developing it are concerned that a slowdown in the rate of infection in the general population could invalidate the human trials currently taking place.
Prof. Adrian Hill, Director of the Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, has told The Telegraph that there is only a 50-50 chance that the vaccine his team has been developing can be successfully tested.
The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally. However, that is unlikely to happen if the virus is not spreading, meaning that no conclusions can be drawn one way or the other about the vaccine’s efficacy.
Hill expects that fewer than 50 people in the test population will catch the virus, but if less than 20 test positive the results may be useless.
It is a race, yes. But it’s not a race against the other guys,” he said. “It’s a race against the virus disappearing – and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.
“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining.”
Vaccine experts say Moderna didn’t produce data critical to assessing Covid-19 vaccine
We don’t know results from the other 37 trial participants.
Moderna disclosed the findings from eight subjects because that’s all it had at that point.
“I do think it’s a bit of a concern that they haven’t published the results of any of their ongoing trials that they mention in their press release. They have not published any of that,”
Moderna did not release its clinical trial study or raw data,but its press release,which was freighted with inconsistencies acknowledged that three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention."
Moderna did not explain why it reported positive antibody tests for only eight participants.These outcomes are particularly disappointing because the most hazardous hurdle for the inoculation is still ahead
The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo.
The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally.
originally posted by: ketsuko
The news from England is grim if you're holding out hope for a vaccine before you will exit your home.
originally posted by: shawmanfromny
its press release,which was freighted with inconsistencies acknowledged that three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention./quote]
Out of how many? 37? 3 out of 37 had serious side effects?
Sounds like this one is going the way of the earlier one for SARS-Cov that killed some people.
Anyone got a link to those trials that ended in utter failure, complete with dead bodies?
originally posted by: PapagiorgioCZ
All they need is good enough placebo and a new one next year. IMO they wont release it before the possible second wave because everyone would know it's fake.
originally posted by: shawmanfromny
A former Harvard Medical professor, interviewed by CNBC on May 20, states that Moderna's press release was "premature" and not impressive. He also stated that he's not sure we'll be able to develop a vaccine for Covid-19, because no one has ever successfully developed a vaccine for a coronavirus. He states that HERE.