Okinawa exercise offers glimpse of the future

WESTPAC Rumrunner was held in January, built around a counter air mission. In the exercise, 24 F-15s launched to intercept USN F-18E/Fs launched from Iwakuni. The F-18s were flying cover for SOF units that were attempting to infiltrate the island. During the exercise, four F-15s, and a Japanese E-2D refueled at Kadena, with the F-15s rearming in a test of the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept. In addition, USN E-2Ds, and Patriot batteries added layers to the exercise.

The exercise was a chance to try out base defense tactics and practices, which haven't been trained for or tested in a long time. It's a pretty significant change in thinking. The Air Force is using various exercises to learn all they can about both base defense, and the ACE concept. Eventually, the Air Force plans to employ the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) concept. Part of the ACE concept includes sending small groups of fighters to remote airfields, as well as building up defenses. This would include prepositioning weapons and systems.

The results of Rumrunner were a mixed bag. They prevented the "invading" F-18s from getting within 100 miles, but the SOF team was able to land. Their infiltration aircraft were "killed" immediately though.

A local exercise held in January called WestPac Rumrunner appeared to be built around a routine counter-air scenario: Twenty-four Boeing F-15Cs scrambled from Kadena AB to a point about 100 mi. east of the island to intercept “invading” U.S. Navy Boeing F/A-18E/Fs launched from MCAS Iwakuni on Japan’s mainland. Meanwhile, Special Operations Forces (SOF) aircraft attempted to infiltrate a team of commandos on the island.

Underlying that routine setup, however, was a glimpse of the future. Four Kadena-based F-15Cs refueled and rearmed during the exercise at MCAS Futenma on Okinawa. Another mainland Japan-based Navy E-2D, which supported Kadena’s F-15Cs against the invading F/A-18E/Fs and SOF teams, refueled at Kadena. Although those seem like trivial logistical details, both offered a chance to test the Air Force’s new Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy. Moreover, the Navy’s Northrop Grumman E-2Ds and local MIM-104 Army Patriot batteries added layers to the defenders’ battle-management tasks.

aviationweek.com...

Having a full airfield at 100% capabilities?Why didnt they do a pre emp Cruise missile strike first with electronic jamming to diminish the defences and force then send the planes in?Make it more interesting guys...

I remember Obama? Announcing a pivot to that region while we were involved in 2 wars in the Middle East, but the situations there changed and the pivot got postponed.
I wonder what naval assets participated in that exercise?
US China relations are heating up.

Sounds like Agile Eagle. They need to be cooperating with the Marines on EABO, and figuring out what the logistical footprint looks like. Because ultimately we're much more likely to end up being the invasion force into South China Sea reacting to China, than be equipped to keep out a sudden Chinese attack like this.

a reply to: RadioRobert

I see this as preparations to protect Taiwan.

a reply to: CharlesT

We're probably not going to be able to base small dispersed units around Taiwan if it comes to that. Formosa Strait is only 100 or so miles wide.

It's over 700 miles from Hainan to the Spratly's for example. Okinawa islands are about 500 miles from Shanghai.

Dispersed operations and EABO schemes might work there. Not around Taiwan.

a reply to: CharlesT

You know, I wonder what the consensus is within the Pentagon and CIA with regards to China's intention to take Taiwan back by force. While we didn't see anything turn hot during Cold War 1, I think it's safe to say at this point China REALLY wants to "re-unite" Taiwan with the motherland. Will the US let it be another Pearl Harbor or will we stay vigilant?

a reply to: Masisoar

China would act so quickly we wouldn't even have time to react.

a reply to: CharlesT

They can completely level most of the island. That's why so much of it is underground.

The hard part would be subduing it. Mines, mines, and more mines complicate seaborne invasion plans, and China doesn't have sufficient sea or air lift to really make it happen.

Taiwan's plan is basically fight a guerilla war with their Navy and Air Force and deny China's ability to bring ground forces to bear. Then hope the US is able to project power and disrupt China's power projection.

But if China strikes out, it's going to be quick and overwhelming. Taiwan's ability to come to battle is going to be extremely limited. And our ability to project force from Japan and Guam is going to be rather limited compared to our most recent engagements. I'm not sure the carrier forces as currently composed are going to be capable of anything other than containment and sea control.

It'd be a bad time, all around. It'd be essentially impossible to subdue Taiwan without forces which they do not have. But Taiwan would not be a pleasant place to be, nor would it be easy/safe to use Taiwan as a place from which to project power.

Pretty sure China is happy with the slow political insurrection, err, reunification drive they are sponsoring. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party is pushing heavily for reunification. Which is not desirable, but perhaps more desirable than a protracted war. Certainly for China.

a reply to: RadioRobert

Crazy Times

How many F/A-18s were there?

I would expect at least a 2:1 kill ratio for the Eagles, or am I being a bit mean on the Sailors.

a reply to: RadioRobert

we would see a large build up of readiness and deployments to the coast in china before any invasion and they would more than likely cut the internet in china as well as any other communications out.

China is CRAZY to think we wont protect Taiwan with ever increasing significance maybe even up to a winner takes all situation.

And if allot of Americans start to die then god help China, dont get me wrong China is for sure a real threat but if it came down to it via financial pressure and the obliteration of china navy and air force might bring them to heel.

When i was in China i got a good look at a military hospital and the soldiers that i saw were skinny and honestly not allot discipline so that makes me think once missiles started hitting navel bases in China it would turn into a cluster F

China has a no first use policy on nuclear weapons but i think if we started to push them back across their own land i doubt that policy would hold.

its crazy to think that anyone with nukes wouldn't use them in the face of losing them, like the saying goes use it or lose it


lets just hope China will play nice

a reply to: penroc3

Of course, China will play nice. They are not stupid and prefer the long game over hastily adventures. As long as they can keep their power structure intact and their people in line at least. Things would need to go pretty bad on the political and economic front for China to lash out.

As for Taiwan, the PRC can reduce the island to rubble but taking it would be next to impossible.
China simply doesn't have the capability to land and supply the equivalent of at least a heavy Army Corps on the island. To be fair, they have a decent amphibious and airborne capability they keep expanding and if they really wanted to they could utilize civilian shipping to get troops across the straits, but Taiwanese and Anglo-American forces would inflict catastrophic casualties during the crossing.
Even a total loss of the invasion force would be in the cards, at least if they miscalculate the effectiveness of the enemy's response. Their margin of error would be incredibly thin and this won't change anytime soon, if ever.

In fact, I don't think the Chinese amphibious buildup is aimed at Taiwan at all. They are focussed on the South China Sea. And if war with the US does happen at some point, maybe they'll even be looking at the First Island Chain. Ever thought about what it would take to occupy the islands Northeast of Taiwan? Unlike Taiwan, they are not defended by 100.000+ troops and 20mil population.
There are some very juicy strategic targets like the long-range radar station on Yonaguni/Ishigaki, the SIGINT station at Miyako. Also, there are many airports like on Yonaguni, Ishigaki, Hateruma, Tarama, Shimojijima and Miyako, even at Kumejima Iejima or Yoronjima if they can neutralize Kadena and Naha.
The US talks a lot about dispersing airpower and somesuch, i think the far more interesting challenge would be to hold those islands against a Chinese Amphibious Force after they threw a thousand missiles at Okinawa.

a reply to: penroc3

It's safe to say that if China says something, the opposite is true. That goes for their "No First Use" policy as well. I imagine the rhetoric for taking back Taiwan will increase (as is happening currently), just to bolster the domestic support for such an operation. As their amphibious capabilities grow, I can see them engaging in more exercises to intimidate Taiwan.

If and when it finally kicks off, I don't think China will provide much of any indication. Due to the proximity of their forces to Taiwan, China will be able to mobilize fairly quickly and I highly doubt the US is going to have a substantial amount of forces permanently staged in the local area to deter any of that.

The US may inevitably have to bite the bullet on this, if the 2030 timeframe for a Taiwan conflict comes to fruition, I fully expect China's amphibious capability to deliver plenty of troops and armor to the island as well as a substantial amount of mines in and around the Strait. We would need an aggressive strategy (with US troop deployments to Taiwan) to make it a larger risk for China.

a reply to: penroc3

Zero reason to invade China lol You'd be happy to restore status quo ante bellum and call it a day (or year).

a reply to: mightmight

I don't think we can hold off a determined incursion into the Spratly's or Okinawa islands. We could make it extremely costly, but we couldn't stop it. That's why I said we are much more likely to be fighting our way back into the South China Ses or East China Sea than holding it long enough to use dispersed ops.

a reply to: RadioRobert

i didn't say invade china as a whole i was thinking more the insertion of SOF and sub launched missiles at coastal Chinese ports and other logistical targets.

If China tries to take the island back the US will have to show overwhelming force and the willingness to push our SOF's into their territories.

the only thing China really has is numbers and old stolen US tech and some newer homegrown stuff. I spent a good amount of time in china as part of my schooling(think doctors with out boarders but for students). China is on its way to being a real threat but arent there yet.

and when i say threat i mean the ability to beat America in an all out non-nuclear war.

What would be interesting to see is who would come to China's aid in their attempt to take the island back.


and at the end of the day sometimes people(governments) that start problems for the world need to be taken down a few pegs(personal opinion)

double post