China The US and Canadas COVID19 Case-Fatality numbers say the same thing

I will never believe anything that comes out of China, or Russia, but that is just me.

I've been a number cruncher for most of my career. The numbers for Cases or Case-fatalities
will never be 100%, so we have to look for trends. The trends for Case-fatality for the US, Canada and China are all saying the same
thing. I think this shows how deadly, or not deadly the disease is. It is telling us for the people that actually tested and got Covid-19, how many of those people died? As more testing is done that number should go down for everyone across the board regardless of country. Of course
with the limiting of testing usually the sickest are tested first.

coronavirus.jhu.edu...

Look at the numbers, these are from John Hopkins as of 04/27/20. I just put them in my excel for easier reading.
The more testing you have the more accurate the percentage are. I just wanted to put actual numbers out there for those that think
different countries are telling a different story, from what i'm seeing, it is (numbers that is) saying the same thing. Of course some countries like Italy have a larger elderly population, and kiss each other on the cheek more etc. Some countries might have more obese people, some might have healthier people, so we have to take that into account.

Look at the number, look at the huge differences in confirmed cases, then move over to case fatality, they are all very close for this sample.
I think the death per population is useless unless they test every single person for Covid.

a reply to: JAGStorm

When you look at the European numbers, France, Italy, Spain, they look really high compared to the rest, but then you get to Germany, very low.
I too wondered why..

www.nature.com...

Germany has also tested many people with few or no symptoms, lowering the death rate on paper.

So maybe France, Italy, Spain tested mostly sick people.

I gave you a star and a flag for your thoughts and the work you have done. My question in all of this are the numbers. We can not figure out mortality rates unless we actually know how many are carrying the virus.

As far a deaths in the USA if you are hit by a bus and crushed but live long enough to get to the hospital if your blood shows you had the virus..... in way to many cases your death certificate will say COVID-19 because it is a money maker for the hospital and a good reason to keep the economy shut down.

Sorry I do not have faith in hardly anything that is being reported with regards to the numbers.

a reply to: 727Sky

The numbers will never be 100% until every single person is tested in every country using the exact same parameters. That’s not going to happen, so we have to extrapolate from the data we do have. You can still see trends with that. I’m actually quite surprised how close some of the case fatalities percentages are.

a reply to: JAGStorm

It's pretty messed up we will never know, if it's bad we get screwed, if it isn't we get screwed....yay to be us.

a reply to: JAGStorm
As a german that sounds like a joke to me. Because:

Corona Virus: There are no tests for many Covid patients
T-Online (german)

Who is being tested for an infection with the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus in Germany?

Not everyone who thinks their symptoms indicate the coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 is also tested in Germany. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) recommends that people who meet the following criteria should be tested:

People who have symptoms that match the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus (e.g. cold, sore throat) and have had contact with a confirmed coronavirus case within the past 14 days.

People who have symptoms and have been in a risk area determined by the RKI within the past 14 days.
Frankfurter Rundschau

Problem is that from 10 people who want or need to be tested 9 don´t get tested here. Even if they meet all the above conditions. One of the meanwhile uncountable things that makes no sense if you want to protect the people or to fight the virus. It is right that we tested more than others. But that means we are good only because the others are worse. We could be much, much better than we are now. Without that neoliberal system that gives money to share-holders and tax-criminals. We are around 82, 83 million people here. At the end of march they tested around 1 million. Doesn´t sound that great for that "high-tech nation", for the nation of poets and thinkers, for the export world champion, for the advanced industrial nation. We can´t even produce those silly and useless paper masks anymore. Still havre to buy usless ones from China:

"Eleven million masks, all junk"

Germany has a hard time procuring corona protective masks - CSU politician Andreas Scheuer also fell on his nose whith ordering from China.
Spiegel

Once we really were good. Before they brought down the wall for globalism. Before they created the Euro for globalism. Before they started to create the "United States of Europe" EU for globalism. Now we are only better than those that are worse. But that doesn´t mean good anymore. Only good thing with that Event201 corona virus is that more and more people realize now what´s wrong with our nation, system, politics, with that robber baron capitalism and how dangerous it is for the peole who make the robber barons richer and richer. Not enough yet and i don´t know if it will be enough to change something in the near future.

But i guess it will be a hot time for those really responsible, many people didn´t realize yet that not the virus killed our freedom and middle class economy, people don´t realize that the virus and everything that happened till today was just a light breeze compared to what is coming now. People didn´t realize yet that powerful robber barons had to switch the system to their likings before the next bankster crash which was just around the corner. They made it look like the virus is responsible for their repeated failures and greed now. Meanwhile am pretty sure they created this mostly harmless virus (Corona, the disease Covid-19 is not that harmless but the corona virus itself is not as contagious as the normal flu corona virus as the numbers tell us) that by the US funded lab in Wuhan without knowledge of the chinese and set it free there to make China look like the culprit. You know, "China Virus, Wu-Flu" propaganda and stuff. But that has less to do with the US government but more with the Gates Foundation, Johns Hopkins, the WEF and all those greedy rich that get richer right now because others lose everything. Because the middle class loses it´s economy right now, because the poor are completely forgotten again. But the greedy rich and known Scrooge McDucks fill their money bins right now.

Guess we have to wait another one or two months till it gets hot here. Thats the time when the "corona rescue credits" with up to 7% interest rates are used up (by the few that got one yet) to buy food and pay the rent for another two or three months. While the borrowers often weren´t and aren´t allowed to make money. To pay these credits and the rates back and to protect their business. Millions of small businesses are ruined because of a panic hype and a sytem switch. If the people finally notice that it´s over for their future plans, that they worked for years just to be poor now because of a curfew that was not required in these incredible dimensions. For a flu virus. Again, i don´t say that Covid-19 is harmelss or something, it´s an evil disease. But pleasedifferentiate between Corona and Covid-19 and look at the numbers and who gets what of both, what happens then and why. For around, as we know now, 0.03 of germans that get ill and die from Covid somebody cvrashed the whole system and life as we knew it.

Tbh

People counting now?

Pointless

None of this will look the same by 2021 or 2022 that’s how long this virus will be ravishing the globe for unfortunately, even if a vaccine pops up tomorrow for mass production it Still isn’t going to be here till 2021

People pointing out highest deaths now like this is over next week are nutjobs, incapable of anything close to critical thinking, mostly because they’re just “political thinking” 90% of the reporting is political in nature, same as the lunatics who want lockdown forever and don’t seem to know what that would look like... HELL... a real life hell is what that will look like, complete collapse

It doesn’t matter if you massive test and case isolate, you still need massive resources to do that and eventually the virus will out pace you and you’re in lockdown again and the greater depression looms nearer, those who successfully did that early, they’re still at risk again as you’re open for business

It doesn’t matter if you lockdown, this virus is here and it will either A slowly kill and destroy your economy or B quickly kill and destroy your economy that’s a fact people need to wake up to

Save your charts, they won’t look anything remotely similar by the end of the year after possibly the 3rd wave

All these country’s claiming they’ve done well and successfully stoped the virus

No you haven’t, when your economy opens you’re going down again simple

The only winner here are the countries who have filtered the virus through its population the quickest and below capacity and heading towards heard immunity, which is nobody at the minute, but there are a couple of cities close to that, Wuhan, NYC, London, Milan, and other cities most impacted, they can return to normal soonest

Countries with the biggest infections, they also have the biggest blood donor list for serology, blood plasma treatment to further aid ICU capacity, for now they’ll just be for treatment of the elites, just one drop is sufficient to give protection against the virus

The politicalisation of COVID19 pandemic has turned people’s heads to utter mush, it’s not a points scoring or laugh at the most deaths, it’s get through it the quickest

a reply to: TritonTaranis



Maybe pointless to you but I think it provides a lot of info in this small snapshot. In a way it actually makes me feel a lot more hopeful.

No I don’t think it’s going away, it was made quite clear the only reason for quarantine was to flatten the curve and stop deaths from overcrowding. There isn’t a vaccine and I actually don’t think there will be an effective one. One thing we are learning is that ventilators aren’t helping that much. If you don’t keep track of these things, including death, how would you ever know?

This isn’t a discussion about the next Great Depression, even though I think that is coming. This is simply a look at numbers, numbers that have been provided up to this point and fully acknowledging it’s just a sample and not all encompassing. Of course it matters, if we don’t keep track there is no way to know what works, what doesn’t.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Everyone in the world would need to take a virus test along with an antibody test in a short span to ever really deterrmine death rate, and that isnt going to happen. Although its pretty obvious that if its so transmissible we most likely peaked before we were even looking for it.

If the numbers are the same across the board does that mean everyone bashing the USA and it’s government for botching the quarantine process are wrong? Because some countries on list received high praise while other were flamed and apparently there is no real variation in the numbers.


a reply to: JAGStorm

a reply to: JAGStorm

I spoke to my daughters yesterday about antibody testing.

That will be the game changer in terms of morbidity.

None of my family members have been tested. However:

One daughter is positive she had it, just before lockdown started she had a "virus" that landed her in the ER, she had a high fever and trouble breathing, later she complained about a weird thing that happened to her feet but let it go because she was so miserable. It hurt so much to breathe that the ER gave her a strong opiod to help with the pain and sent her home. No test. Before and after she had very close contact with her very young child and her husband, because none of them thought it was COVID 19. Now she is certain it was.

The other daughter is positive 2 of her children had it just before lockdown. They had the worst colds she had ever seen and ran fevers. At the time she thought it was "just colds", looking back she is sure it was COVID 19. She said that shortly after the youngest 2 recovered from their "colds" that she and the older child got sick with what she dismissed as really really bad allergies. She is now fairly certain that they all had COVID 19.

There are perhaps millions upon millions out there who had it and dismissed it. Before testing was available, how many like my daughter were told it was just a virus and to go home and gut it out, and were never tested?

The true mortality rate will not be known until there is massive, widespread and nearly universal antibody testing, which shows the number who had COVID 19 and recovered.

The one daughter is so certain she had it that she is going to insist on antibody testing until someone listens so she can donate plasma.

We don't have the full picture yet. With testing only available for the very sick for the longest time, we have no idea of what the true mortality rate is yet.

My guess is close to 1% from the studies done in Germany, and in the US where they sampled the general population for antibodies. reason.com... www.nytimes.com...

The numbers have tended to be indicative of hospitalizations.

This became rather obfuscated when reporting of cause of death changed in some places, as they also increased testing at the same time. It seems something always "comes up" that keeps that number steady. Whether that be lack of tests, or changing reporting, or lack of test supplies, or slow processing, or reporting according to date of when the *report* was received (rather than the date of death itself).

Regardless, Id say the most pertinent data will be pertaining to hospitalizations. Releasing and presenting those numbers as overall rates was irresponsible at best.

Been saying it for a while too.. Looking at, say, 5-10% fatality rates among the hospitalized is actually pretty in line with many infectious diseases. As transmissibility increases, however, the raw numbers themselves will be larger. It then becomes about managing hospital occupancy more than anything, and absolutely ensuring that occupancy capability does not reduce due to lack of patients for an extended period.

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
It doesn’t matter if you lockdown, this virus is here and it will either A slowly kill and destroy your economy or B quickly kill and destroy your economy that’s a fact people need to wake up to

Thank you for more fear-mongering nonsense.

We each and every one of us have hundreds of TRILLIONS of viruses inside us, all the time.

What is one (or 10 or a thousand) more?

It is called the circle of life.

Anyone who coughs and dies in the US died of covid. Our collection of evidence here has hit a low, the CDC if making up statistics to justify their killing our economy. Sweden is doing alright with their statistics. Sure, they have lost some people, but everyone has lost people and they won't probably have another major outbreak this coming winter. In the end we must look at the true figures and evaluate them correctly. We should never have done it the way we did it in the USA, we should have just taken better care of those who are most at risk. They should have taken people off the ACE2 inhibitor drugs right away and switched them to other meds, most of those people on them could have switched, they knew about the ACE2 connection two months ago, they knew how the virus worked before that. but our medical people ignored evidence they should have not ignored. Finally they are saying no new patients to receive ace inhibitors but still will not change existing patients meds.

This country sucks, they claim no evidence, but in essence it is no evidence that they accept.

a reply to: The2Billies

I spoke to my daughters yesterday about antibody testing.

That will be the game changer in terms of morbidity.

I agree with this and is why the data here makes me hopeful. I truly can only see most numbers going down.

a reply to: JAGStorm

The big difference is, they are not currently, and have not been, testing people who are asymptomatic. For the past six weeks they have not even been testing people with mild symptoms, rather, such people have been advised to stay home and only come in (whether for testing or for treatment, or both) if symptoms become severe. Therefore it can be posited that the actual death-per-case rate is actually much, much lower.

Unfortunately with the (still) rationing of testing to only more severe cases, and so many (untested) people recovering at home without ever having even seen a doctor, except perhaps by videoconference, the actual death-per-case rate will only be known after the fact, when antibody testing is done on a large cross-section of the population.

a reply to: JAGStorm

So, they are all lying. A vast conspiracy of both enemy and allied states colluding to achieve some pointless goal that diminishes them all.

Or,

They are all genuinely trying to track a pandemic. To monitor if they are succeeding in their efforts.

Hmm...

The numbers are either meaningless lies, which means that they are useless, and one administrations' insistence that another authority is 'inexcusably lying', is an equal indictment of themselves, or, the numbers are true, which means the accusations are false, the lies of an administration damned as incompetent by the evidence of the statistics.

originally posted by: 727Sky
I gave you a star and a flag for your thoughts and the work you have done. My question in all of this are the numbers. We can not figure out mortality rates unless we actually know how many are carrying the virus.

As far a deaths in the USA if you are hit by a bus and crushed but live long enough to get to the hospital if your blood shows you had the virus..... in way to many cases your death certificate will say COVID-19 because it is a money maker for the hospital and a good reason to keep the economy shut down.

Please cite a single case where that ever happened.

You are repeating a false supposition, as if it were happening everywhere, all the time.

If hospitals were doing that, it would invalidate the numbers, true, but what about in all the other countries who don't have the same screwed up, profit only, 'health' system? And if the numbers are just lies, how does anyone know they are managing resources and making headway against the epidemic?

Sorry I do not have faith in hardly anything that is being reported with regards to the numbers.

Perhaps you have not actually reasoned this out, and have an opinion formed through listening to lying propagandists and now that opinion has been voiced, reinforced by repetition, you will not waver?

A little OT sorry but just popping by with another great video from Mr Cullen. Ignore it and suck up the mainstream and government advice if you want, good for you, you must be the "free thinker" of the household

originally posted by: chr0naut
a reply to: JAGStorm

So, they are all lying. A vast conspiracy of both enemy and allied states colluding to achieve some pointless goal that diminishes them all.

Or,

They are all genuinely trying to track a pandemic. To monitor if they are succeeding in their efforts.

Hmm...

The numbers are either meaningless lies, which means that they are useless, and one administrations' insistence that another authority is 'inexcusably lying', is an equal indictment of themselves, or, the numbers are true, which means the accusations are false, the lies of an administration damned as incompetent by the evidence of the statistics.

Hello, and Yes yes yes! I am so excited by reading your response because you see what I do, you see it!
I personally think they are true. There is no way every single country is lying and has the same agenda. Has there ever been a time in history where every country can agree, heck no! Republicans and democrats can’t agree within one country. There is a margin of error to any number reported. So in a way they are almost all equally faulty. The fact that those numbers are pretty much saying the same thing would be a miraculous coincidence of astrological proportions or..........they are closer to truth than some are comfortable to admit

Perhaps you have not actually reasoned this out, and have an opinion formed through listening to lying propagandists and now that opinion has been voiced, reinforced by repetition, you will not waver?

You wrote this to another poster. I agree. People are terrible at math, statistics and very odd to me, percentages. If they had any reasoning at all it is right there clear as day. Again, it’s not perfect, but as numbers people know, you almost never get to work with perfect, you work with moving targets. Numbers tell a story.