28 Days Later, Have you Changed Your Mind About the Covid-19 Outbreak?

28 days ago, I asked what would it take for people to change their minds about the coronvirus in the US. I saw some people claiming it was an utter farce. Other people were claiming it was the end of the world. Two weeks ago, I followed up to ask if anyone had changed their mind. Now, I am back once more to get a feel for what the folks on ATS now think.

Let's lay out some information.

The most common virus to compare covid-19 to has been influenza[1] The CDC has stopped tracking the flu cases and providing estimates on April 4th[2]. There will probably be a 'final' report some time in the future about the actual totals. For the time being, people will have to go with their estimates for the flu season this year. That was from October 1st, 2019 to April 4th, 2020 as per the CDC. This seems shorter than the past: normally the flu season tails off into the first week of May. With the last update of April 4th, the CDC decreased the number of deaths from their estimate on March 28th. No, I dunno way. They gave an estimate before of 63,000 dead and then decreased it by a thousand to 62,000. They also changed the start date to October 1st. The total estimated cases for the flu this year were between 39 million to 56 million. This gives us an officially recognized flu season this year as being 156 days long. This, in turn, increases the average deaths per day to over 397.

In contrast, the first reported case of covid-19 in the United States was on January 19th, 2020[2]. To today's date, that means we have had a 'covid season' of 98 days. As of time of posting, there has been a total[4] of 964,075 reported cases[5] and 54,375 deaths. That gives an average daily rate of death due to covid-19 as being over 554. There is some uncertainty as to the total deaths, as there are a hundreds more heart attack victims per day in NYC than the norm. Are these caused by the virus? Or not as a knock-on effect of people who are not seeking treatment out of fear of the virus? Finally, it should be noted there are a large number of cases where people exhibit little to no symptoms of the virus, so the accurate numbers for the total infected and ultimately recovered is almost guess work.

Additionally, covid has been stymied at least in part by the various 'shelter in place/at home' and social distancing orders, which was not done for the most part with the flu. On the flipside, the flu had a really bad season because the vaccine was pretty ineffective as they selected the wrong strains to vaccinate against. However, this has not been the worst flu season ever even when dismissing the 1918 'Spanish' (really, Kansan) flu epidemic. In some years, we get up to 73,000 dead from the flu strains. On the gripping hand, covid-19 is infectious even before the symptoms show up.

Some other tidbits about the virus. 2/3s of those who are hospitalized are over the age of 65. It can and does kill those younger though. Also interestingly, a number of those who were 45 and younger who caught the virus and recovered are dying of stroke. That's rather unusual for the age group and the tentative feature in common has been the viral infection. Furthermore, there have been a handful of cases where people are testing positive for the virus after having recovered and tested negative. The WHO warned the virus may not be granting immunity to those who have recovered...which is rather odd.

So, my fellow ATSians, what do YOU think? Have you changed your mind? Is this more serious than you thought? Is this less serious than you thought?


1. That's actually multiple strains rather than, as far as we can tell about covid-19, one so far.
2. www.cdc.gov...
3. www.nejm.org...
4. www.worldometers.info...
5. These are supposed to be tested and verified.

No.

And after the antibody testing numbers out of California and New York, now I'm even more sure the panic reaction was bulls#.

a reply to: anzha

Nope, haven't changed my mind.

I still think the virus can be very dangerous for a whole lot of people.

I also still think that if you are at high risk you should take precautions but the rest of the world should be allowed to go about their business. I stay home as much as possible but I don't think everyone else should be forced to.

originally posted by: anzha
28 days ago, I asked what would it take for people to change their minds about the coronvirus in the US. I saw some people claiming it was an utter farce. Other people were claiming it was the end of the world. Two weeks ago, I followed up to ask if anyone had changed their mind. Now, I am back once more to get a feel for what the folks on ATS now think.

I'm the same. I actually suggested 60k as a closer number back when the hype was 250k+. My reasoning was that it was about 2 times as transferable than the normal flu, healthy people were not dying from it, and it seemed to be harder on the system than what a bad flu typically is.

This is what I looked at and used 60k as a scenario of 2 or 3 times a normal flu season.

We also are seeing that Sweden's non-lock down shows about the same death rate, but they will have herd immunity and we get round 2.

a reply to: anzha

No, still think this not a real threat.

Most likely they have known about the crow disease for some years, and they have been saving it for later.

It's hard for me to know what to think about the virus because we still don't know the long term health effects it can cause. We don't know if the virus goes dormant and reactivates itself. There are too many unknowns about the virus right now imo.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
My reasoning was that it was about 2 times as transferable than the normal flu

I think a lot more people were infected than by some of the more contagious influenza events. I 'think'. Without anyone having numbers to back up anything, mine is just another opinion in the storm.

healthy people were not dying from it

Still haven't seen what the real fallout is. The flu doesn't tend to permanently scar its victims. Not sure if what we're hearing about COVID-19 is more hype.

it seemed to be harder on the system than what a bad flu typically is.

I 'think' I had it. I don't think I was hit as hard as my wife and son (who 'think' they had it back in January), though we all had similar symptoms. It's certainly not as bad as Pneumonia ... and not as bad as a case of flu I had so long ago I can barely remember anything more than thinking, "I'll always get a flu shot from now on."

DBCowboy made a post a while back (that I can't find) hitting "just the facts":
It's contagious, people have died from it, it's a worldwide problem.

Everything else is probably some level of doom porn.

United Kingdom -> pop. 66 million -> 20,000 covid deaths = 0.03% of population dead

United Kingdom -> mortality rate 550,000 per year roughly 45,000 deaths per month

United States -> pop 327 million -> 50,000 covid deaths = 0.01% of population dead

United States -> mortality rate 2.8 million per year roughly 233,000 per month

(source, google searches "UK mortality rate 2018" and "USA mortality rate 2018")

"People are dying" just in small numbers compared to the normal monthly mortality rates in these two countries at least.

So, no change of heart here - still an over-inflated bull# pandemic of lies, IMO.

What outbreak?

Oh you mean the takeover of our nation.
The dehumanization of our existence.

Nah, it's as much of a farce as it was in the beginning.

Nope, my opinion is still about the same. Not such of a problem as they are making it up to be. Yes, it is hard on the old, especially in nursing homes, and those on meds for some health conditions, It being contagious and the publics and governments response to this virus is what I was most worried about. Also, I do not like the way that they were stopping family from visiting people on their death beds, some people like the last rights given too.

I think the government over reacted. The politicians were probably worried because they are on these meds and lots of them are older, and their friends are also older. It would have been better to take care of isolating those who were at high risk instead of what they did here. I think a lot of this hype was made to stimulate profit to some medical supply industries that some politicians friends invested in. I also wonder how well they will be keeping track of the money to make sure it was all spent appropriately, I would bet a lot of people will run off with this stimulus money, also I bet billions will wind up in the hands of people it should never have gone too. In a computerized world, technology is the new tool of the con man and thieves. All you need is the personal information of someone and their check can be rerouted into a different account.

Haven't changed my mind.

The total shut-down probably helped stop it spreading out of control, but still, with precautions no reason to NOT start opening business's back up.

Still believe even more so, that CV19 is too deadly to mess with without personal precautions. Doesn't mean we're all not going to be exposed or get it by the fall, but that the longer it takes for us all, the better the outcomes will be. The medical community needs time to catch up.

NOPE! "28 days latter"? It's still a farce! An excuse for T.P.T.B. to grab power.
Anyone that jumps into my foxhole and suggests, "they're here to save me"? Automatically, gets put on "reload my magazines" duty, or "get out of my foxhole".
I honestly think, Pres. Trump is deflecting as much of the "new world order" B.S. as he can, without getting a J.F.K. haircut.

There's some sick sh*t going down here.
Any government, during a "transitional" stage, is for the "people". That is a historical fact. After that? The "law", is for the survival of government. Another historical fact.

It is a "new" book, written a thousand times, years ago, over and over. Any new "emergency" to "protect" the "people", is a threat to people.
Any "educated" individual has this knowledge. But
"Educated" trained people, will? Willing strip themselves of all clothing and humility and self worth, and step into the shower of "safety" and "civil good". Only to be showered with the cleanliness of "public safety". None of this is "news". It is an old play book, used thousands of times, throughout world history. During every disaster/pandemic, "emergency".
Historically speaking. The "loss", never adds up to the gain of the "new found (lawful) authority".

a reply to: anzha

No, my mind hasn't changed.
This is all still by and large, nonsensical and alarmist.
Humans are still, by majority, panicky, easily manipulated animals.
Free thought and speech is still being discouraged in favor of groupthink/speak.
Yeah, nah.
Mark me down for still being over this over hyped, underwhelming, farce of a crisis.

⏳☣🦅🇺🇸🧻

I went from a level of concern about the virus outbreak (refuse to call it a pandemic at this point) to a huge level of concern about wrecking the economy for something that looks less and less lethal as the antibody tests data comes in.

a reply to: anzha

I don't know what I think the virus will ultimately do (not referring to economy, etc at all here.) Fairly certain my wife had it (respiratory sick, lost sense of smell and taste) for 2-3 weeks. Son was sick for a couple of days. Daughter and I didn't have any noticable symptoms. This goes back 6 weeks now.

On the other hand, I see that the general thinking is that this is mainly an upper respiratory disease, when all signs point to it being more of a heme/hemoglobin attacking disease, along with other bodily systems (lungs, kidneys, brain, heart, vascular.)

3 nasty new coronaviruses in 17 years - I also don't think this is the last of virulent, novel coronaviruses. I believe there will be more, and there will be worse.

I still have no idea what the hell is really going on, so I'd say that has stayed quite constant so far.

I still believe the virus to be highly contagious and dangerous.
But, it’s way too early to understand what it is and what it can do. We know it’s especially lethal for the elderly and people with underlying illnesses.

What bothers me is the certitude of certain people that’s it’s totally safe for most of us and saying the whole world is overreacting over it.
And of course, I’ll bet most of the people saying it’s nothing and we need to stop the confinement ASAP are all Trump supporters, so obviously I’m not surprised.

With all this said, I’m leaning toward the fact that China lied about the numbers and it’s potentially about to get a lot worse than we think. And if it is , it’s about to get really bad and it’s mostly because of those idiots who think it’s a joke.

Well, working in a hospital where 1/3 of our beds are taken up with mostly comatose covid patients with numerous tubes down their throats, I have to say no. My view of the covid 19 as far worse than the flu (I’ve never seen anything from the flu like what I see daily now) has not changed. If you think it’s overblown, it’s because you are not a hospital worker, or it hasn’t hit anyone close to you yet. And FYI, the majority of the patients I see like that look like me. Mid thirties-forties, no real underlying co morbidity.

The MSM got what they wanted. They have destroyed President Trumps talking points. the raging economy and unemployment. Now make way for a liberal.

originally posted by: pexx421
Well, working in a hospital where 1/3 of our beds are taken up with mostly comatose covid patients with numerous tubes down their throats, I have to say no. My view of the covid 19 as far worse than the flu (I’ve never seen anything from the flu like what I see daily now) has not changed. If you think it’s overblown, it’s because you are not a hospital worker, or it hasn’t hit anyone close to you yet. And FYI, the majority of the patients I see like that look like me. Mid thirties-forties, no real underlying co morbidity.

Different story out here in California.


To answer the OP. I still think it was an overreaction. I understand why though, with the uncertainty surrounding this virus, where it came from how does it spread. But as we begin to move from hypothetical models to real data we should begin to understand more and start moving back to pre lockdown protocols.

There is some deep issues though with these contrasting stories from the experts. Watch the video above of doctors in the field recounting their experience with the virus. Very different from what the mainstream media and science experts are saying.

Even the conflicting reports about treatments and therapies, almost like there is a conspiracy to discredit any cure that doesn’t end in a vaccine.

The early call for Ventilators and mask by the CDC as their solution made me loose faith in their abilities. No foresight to look into treatments at all. But chose to have everyone wait for a vaccine. Sad we worked so hard to get all those ventilators, when we could have worked just as hard on treatments and therapies.