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North Korea - Likely next steps

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posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:10 PM
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Wasn't exactly sure where to put this one, it has lots of potential tentacles.

As of this post it seems reasonably clear that something serious is going on in NK, up to and including the likely death or long term incapacitation of their leader Kim Jong Un. Assuming this to be true, the world must now begin to focus on what comes next.

North Korea cannot exist in its already fragile state without a leader, and with Un out of the picture this creates a power vacuum.

Some are saying Un's sister, Kim Yo-Jong, could be the heir apparent due to her recent rise in the political party. Personally, based on my experiences in Asia, I think this is very unlikely. And, I suspect what will actually happen will be far less palatable.

Un's sister, Yo-Jong, does have a voice in the party, but women in NK don't hold any power, and the men of the Party will not allow a woman to be in command, certainly not the military. On the other hand, Yo-Jong has been a close confidant of Un for some time now, and is seen as a big participant in re-branding the party image to the world.

One thing which does look to be certain is China, at some point, dispatched a team of 'medical personnel' to NK, seemingly at the behest of Un's personal physician. This team, by all reports, also included high ranking Chinese-NK relations liaisons.

The potential for the re-unification of North and South Korea will not be tolerated by the Chinese, and they will stop at nothing to prevent this.

Consequently, what I believe is going to take place, and is likely happening as I write this, is the Chinese will attempt to prop up a NK military government in NK. From a South Korean perspective (and an American perspective) this is the worst possible outcome. We could be sitting on the brink of the Armistice between the two Koreas falling. Very bad indeed.

In the coming days and weeks, we should be focusing our attention on what Kim Yo-Jong does. If she suddenly disappears or goes into exile, the message will be clear. If she makes appearances or announcements, this may be indicative that she has been somewhat successful in shifting the cultural bias somewhat. In other words, she could ascend to power. What is unclear is, if this were to happen, to what degree would it destablilize the NK military leading to possible civil and military unrest.

What are your thoughts?




posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:15 PM
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Great OP, something is going down and, as usual, China is there to capitalize.



The potential for the re-unification of North and South Korea will not be tolerated by the Chinese, and they will stop at nothing to prevent this.

I thought this was a great point, China is and has been involved in what is happening,whatever it is, that is my belief.
This could be related the "Christmas Gift" Kim Jong Un promised, we have to watch how this scene plays out.
The world is shifting and changing.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
Wasn't exactly sure where to put this one, it has lots of potential tentacles.

As of this post it seems reasonably clear that something serious is going on in NK, up to and including the likely death or long term incapacitation of their leader Kim Jong Un. Assuming this to be true, the world must now begin to focus on what comes next.

North Korea cannot exist in its already fragile state without a leader, and with Un out of the picture this creates a power vacuum.

Some are saying Un's sister, Kim Yo-Jong, could be the heir apparent due to her recent rise in the political party. Personally, based on my experiences in Asia, I think this is very unlikely. And, I suspect what will actually happen will be far less palatable.

Un's sister, Yo-Jong, does have a voice in the party, but women in NK don't hold any power, and the men of the Party will not allow a woman to be in command, certainly not the military. On the other hand, Yo-Jong has been a close confidant of Un for some time now, and is seen as a big participant in re-branding the party image to the world.

One thing which does look to be certain is China, at some point, dispatched a team of 'medical personnel' to NK, seemingly at the behest of Un's personal physician. This team, by all reports, also included high ranking Chinese-NK relations liaisons.

The potential for the re-unification of North and South Korea will not be tolerated by the Chinese, and they will stop at nothing to prevent this.

Consequently, what I believe is going to take place, and is likely happening as I write this, is the Chinese will attempt to prop up a NK military government in NK. From a South Korean perspective (and an American perspective) this is the worst possible outcome. We could be sitting on the brink of the Armistice between the two Koreas falling. Very bad indeed.

In the coming days and weeks, we should be focusing our attention on what Kim Yo-Jong does. If she suddenly disappears or goes into exile, the message will be clear. If she makes appearances or announcements, this may be indicative that she has been somewhat successful in shifting the cultural bias somewhat. In other words, she could ascend to power. What is unclear is, if this were to happen, to what degree would it destablilize the NK military leading to possible civil and military unrest.

What are your thoughts?


edit on 25-4-2020 by fringeofthefringe because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:35 PM
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This one?



edit on 25-4-2020 by visitedbythem because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:42 PM
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This is my 2 cents.

China and NK used to be one. NK was just an extension. Until DJT.

I believe NK was part of Trumps plan to corner China. He could offer NK safety and in turn they would provide manufacturing for global goods to spur their economy and make then not so dependent on China. TPP was gone and China was had the foot of the US on them with trade.

I don't think any of the global players liked this. You saw how all the meetings were treated in the media. The whole time I think SK was on board too. It was a chance for NK to actually come into the global economy.

Now suddenly COVID? Jun dead? US in a tailspin economy?

If he really is gone this could be the time that China decides to put someone in power and that could change the area forever.



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:46 PM
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a reply to: matafuchs

Exactly my thought too. They were getting tired of the antics anyway. Perfect timing.
edit on 25-4-2020 by ColoradoJens because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:49 PM
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I guess we need to put our trust in Pompeo and his CIA contacts to deal with this. trump was pals with Rocket man so perhaps this can be a chance for trump to use his considerable diplomatic skills. I can see how trump and Lil Yo-Jong might be able to spark up a friendship. Or eventually lead to WW3. With the shape the worlds in currently, anythings possible.
edit on 25-4-2020 by olaru12 because: syntax repair



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 03:50 PM
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I'd take either one er, take either one over Kim.

"May we live in interesting times"
edit on 25-4-2020 by Plotus because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 04:03 PM
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Another proxy war in the making Is a real possibility. I expect China would like to see their weapons systems tested in combat with the West, without having any real skin in the game. China is teetering on the edge of war in the South China Sea, but their best weapons systems are all theory.

If China pushes NK and the South into a real confrontation, it’s not going to be like in the 50’s. This will be over in a few days.

Who ever leads the North will be wise to keep the peace. I do agree with you on the sister. Kim Yo-jong has little chance of holding power.
edit on 25-4-2020 by Nickn3 because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 04:12 PM
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a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

I just hope that any people living under a brutal dictatorship, one day enjoy freedom.



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 04:40 PM
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a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Yo-Jong makes Kim Jong Il look perfectly sane. If she ends up in power, she's almost going to have to be utterly ruthless and brutal, even if she wasn't inclined to be already. As you said, the generals won't just line up and accept her rule. Either way, I suspect Pyongyang is about to get bloody.



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 04:47 PM
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They could end up with his older brother taking over and when it comes to China I really hope they will go for it.
Because at this point everything China is doing is being watched closely and their grave is getting deeper.



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 05:14 PM
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One thing which does look to be certain is China, at some point, dispatched a team of 'medical personnel' to NK, seemingly at the behest of Un's personal physician.


What if they were not all a medical team but had a CCP leadership transition team embedded.



Un's sister, Yo-Jong, does have a voice in the party, but women in NK don't hold any power, and the men of the Party will not allow a woman to be in command, certainly not the military. On the other hand, Yo-Jong has been a close confidant of Un for some time now, and is seen as a big participant in re-branding the party image to the world.


Hong Kong's Carrie Lam is nothing but the mouth piece of the CCP but presents a softer image to the world ... all power still comes from the barrel of a gun plus without China's support N.K. would be what ? So... what if China throws their support behind Yo-Jong and tells the generals this is the way it is going to be ? I wonder if she answers to Yo ?

Many possibilities and a fertile ground for speculation. Maybe Kim is not dead but suffered a near death experience where he was shown what an idiot he has been and survives only to change his ways.. (hahahah good luck with that one).

I wish Trump would make a long distance phone call to Kim and say, "Hey buddy what's up?" Since he hasn't that we know of maybe Kim has a big tube or rubber ducky shoved down his throat and can not talk ?

Maybe the medical team who arrived in N.K. brought the Wuhan flu with them..?

Sorry I just woke up and have not had my morning ration of coffee... so I may be speculating while still partially asleep....



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 05:18 PM
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a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

If she ascends to power I think there will be quite a few executions to get the point across.

Question is, how cut throat is she?



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 05:24 PM
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a reply to: Nickn3



Another proxy war in the making Is a real possibility. I expect China would like to see their weapons systems tested in combat with the West, without having any real skin in the game. ...


This is a good point, and it would play heavily in justifying military spending in China.



If China pushes NK and the South into a real confrontation, ...


I'm not sure China will play it out that way, too brazen. They'd turn the world against them, and it would crush their economy. Chinese are smarter than that. What I think they may try to do is help NK stand up a hardline military regime, and create an absolute humanitarian catastrophe along the DMZ. Imagine millions of NK's attempting to flee NK, only to be cut to ribbons by mines, artillery, small arms. The world media would have an absolute multi-year, continuous, orgasm over that spectacle! The US would, technically, be unable to do anything until the carnage and conflict crossed the DMZ. The media would go absolutely insane then! Unlike Darfur where millions died, this region of the world has been under the spotlight and microscope for 70 years.



...it’s not going to be like in the 50’s. This will be over in a few days.


And that's the most ominous part of all. If Chinese national forces start going head-to-head with US forces, it will escalate faster than most people can imagine. The first carrier strike group we lose...the nukes are coming out. Same with the Chinese. Then it's payback time! THAT, should truly SCARE people!



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 05:30 PM
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Logistically, it's a whole lot easier for China to mobilize in this region than western forces. To some in NK, China may be perceived as the savior. The west is in a tough position because out best cards are in not advancing. So, China will likely play the political card on the world stage.

It's a terrible, awful, cliché, but..."What happens in NK...stays in NK".

ETA - There is nothing to lose, really, in NK if large segments of the population are decimated (from a Chinese and NK perspective). More resources, less people to spread it across. NK is nothing more than a buffer zone to the west to China. On the southwest they have the Himalayas, on the north Russia, and on the east and south they have Myanmar and Vietnam as well as the oceans. Their only real vulnerability on land is the Koreas. This should also illustrate why Taiwan and Japan are such hot commodities from a basing standpoint.
edit on 4/25/2020 by Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 05:34 PM
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originally posted by: grey580
a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

If she ascends to power I think there will be quite a few executions to get the point across.

Question is, how cut throat is she?


For a woman to rise to and hold power in a traditional Asian culture, she would have to be 10x more ruthless than anything we've seen out Lil' Kim. You think it was bad he fed people to his dogs? You ain't seen nothin' yet if she gets into power and stays there. She more or less has to. That's just going by reading about those few women who did manage to obtain and hold power in that region in the past.



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 05:46 PM
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a reply to: ketsuko



For a woman to rise to and hold power in a traditional Asian culture, she would have to be 10x more ruthless than anything we've seen out Lil' Kim. ...


This is correct. An absolute maniac. Else, she'd be fed to dogs after being blown to shreds by AAA canons...on TV! She'd have to be even more merciless than Jong Un, and Jong Il before him (combined even). She will have to be the reincarnation of Satan himself to quell the military machine from assassinating her!
edit on 4/25/2020 by Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 06:03 PM
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a reply to: Flyingclaydisk




Un's sister, Yo-Jong, does have a voice in the party, but women in NK don't hold any power,


hmmm, reminds me of someplace....

THE UNITED STATES

At least Korea & China have both had Women rulers in the past.
Strange times that North Korea will have a woman leader/President before we do.

What will be even more strange is if Biden gets a woman Vp, and then passes away and then she is President.

So if NK & the US both have Women presidents soon my grandma will sit up in her grave.



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 06:05 PM
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originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: ketsuko



For a woman to rise to and hold power in a traditional Asian culture, she would have to be 10x more ruthless than anything we've seen out Lil' Kim. ...


This is correct. An absolute maniac. Else, she'd be fed to dogs after being blown to shreds by AAA canons...on TV! She'd have to be even more merciless than Jong Un, and Jong Il before him (combined even). She will have to be the reincarnation of Satan himself to quell the military machine from assassinating her!


Oh yes!!! Wu Zeitian!

www.youtube.com...
edit on 25-4-2020 by JAGStorm because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 25 2020 @ 06:06 PM
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The North Koreans looked up to Dear Leader so wouldn't you expect an elaborate State funeral first?
I wouldn't want to speculate on regime change at this point his death isn't being reported in NK yet is it?



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