China may be Detonating Nuclear Weapons in Underground Tests at Lop Nur

There's not a ton of information on the subject. However, the US has accused China of doing nuclear weapons tests[1,2,3]. These are not subcritical tests, as allowed in the Test Ban Treaty[4]. These are full blown nuclear explosions. These tests are also taking place below ground at China's equivalent of the Nevada Test Site[5]. The US detonated several hundred nuclear weapons in subterranean chambers after the early 1960s treaty banning nuclear explosions above ground. The Chinese equivalent is Lop Nur[6].

The Chinese appear to be testing new nuclear weapon designs[7]. These are relatively low yield weapons. The US has recently deployed a low yield nuclear weapon on its nuclear submarines[8] and has been looking to replace its very old nuclear weapons in general, most of which date back to the fall of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War. Neither the US nor China are the driving nations for this new nuclear arms race. The Russians are the ones who started the whole thing and have some of the most batshbt crazy tech of the bunch. That said, the US started last, but is doing some serious catch up.

The US states China "may" have tested nuclear weapons rather than definitely stating so because there needs to be multiple sources of data for a confirmation. The first source normally is seismic. When a nuke explodes, it causes a very unique seismic wave, a mini earthquake, that is wildly distinct from a real earthquake and conventional explosives. Sensors placed around the world by the US gov - both for geological and weapon test monitoring - pick up the explosions. The next step is to have the WC-135 Constant Phoenix[9] fly by and attempt to detect nuclear isotopes released by the test. However, Lop Nur is not exactly close enough for the WC-135 to fly anywhere near. No other nation has piped up saying they have detected anything either. Hence, 'may' rather than 'definitely.'

It should be noted that China and US can, technically, test nuclear weapons. The US signed the treaty and has been abiding by the terms, but Clinton (nor any president since) has submitted the Test Ban Treaty to the Senate to be ratified. Every president has known the Senate would shoot it down. However, this is not the only treaty the US has not ratified and is abiding by. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is another such[10]. China signed the Test Ban Treaty, but has not formally ratified it. They are not 'technically' bound by it.

China has denied they have done any tests[11]. There were rumors China did some tests back in 2018. The Chinese internet certainly thinks so and wonders why the US didn't protest then. It's a bit of a weird and somewhat amusing juxtaposition where the Sino internet says one thing - and it is HEAVILY censored - and the gov says another.

1. www.reuters.com...
2. www.janes.com...
3. www.wsj.com...
4. en.wikipedia.org...
5. en.wikipedia.org...
6. en.wikipedia.org...
7. www.tandfonline.com...
8. apnews.com...
9. en.wikipedia.org...
10. en.wikipedia.org...
11. www.aljazeera.com...

a reply to: anzha

Constant Phoenix should still be able to detect any signature, without getting too close to the test site. The problem is deploying one of them. There are only two and they're showing their age. The first of three KC-135s was supposed to begin conversion to WC last September, but it'll be awhile before they're ready to fly active missions.

So could this cause earthquakes in places that have not had them recently, or islands to tip over?

a reply to: anzha

Were there "earthquakes" detected at Lop Nur?

What if they are testing them in space? Can we detect a nuke explosion if it happens outside of the Earth's orbit.

ETA - From a quick search I only find stories like the ones linked in the OP. None mention any earthquakes at Lop Nur, that I could find. Did find a pic of the site.Nuclear tests-Claim a US "trick" to push West-led treaty: China

a reply to: LookingAtMars

The US gov did not disclose how they knew.

If they were tested outside earth orbit, the world would have TOTALLY noticed. There are enough telescopes pointed everywhere these days and the gamma and xray telescopes would have picked up a massive spike.

a reply to: apydomis

No. They don't cause earthquakes, they have a seismic signature that's similar to an earthquake that's detectable on seismographs.

a reply to: anzha

Not to mention the interesting effects detonating one in space had on the Van Allen Belts.

a reply to: anzha

There are enough telescopes pointed everywhere these days

Maybe so, but the space is big and deep.

a reply to: Zaphod58

What if it was done far out, like Neptune or Pluto.

Doubt we would detect it.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

They did a test many years ago both in the upper atmosphere and in orbit. The upper atmosphere caused EMP effects 700 miles away. The orbital test caused the Van Allen Belts to go insane.

They can test deeper in orbit, but pretty much everyone is going to see the launch, and be able to track the payload and see the detonation.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

It would take years to get there. You're then looking at weeks to get any data back. By the time it detonated you'd already have a new warhead in the works.

a reply to: anzha

It's too bad that they were vague about things and we don't have a date range on this. I would love to see the seismic data for that period.

Multiple sources running this story Janes is on the top of the Google list.

Lop Nur desert had some interesting "conspiracies" in the past.

Check out the photo of Peng Jiamu in this write up.
He supposedly spent his life filtering Carnallite ore.

www.adventure-journal.com...

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: LookingAtMars

It would take years to get there. You're and weeks to get any data back. By the time it detonated you'd already have a new warhead in the works.

That was an extreme example. I think they could launch a secret weapon with a legit mission. Maybe just on the far side of Venus. Don't think it could be detected. No way every bit of space is being watched.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

And how are you planning to hide the launch? Once the launch is detected, you can track the payload, see it leave orbit, and track it from there. And you're still looking at over 3 months and hundreds of millions of dollars just to detonate a test warhead.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Just saying it could be done if you really needed to test something like this in secret.

And how do we know if the US detected something in space or on the ground. They are not saying what they are basing this accusation on.

ETA - If we can hide planes with stealth, I am sure a payload could be hidden in space.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

The test was detected at a known testing location. If it was detected in space there was no need to say anything beyond "we detected possible nuclear weapons tests by China". There also would have been reports of a launch.

Yes, you could test in space, but the cost, time involved, and difficulty mean that it doesn't make sense to. It also wouldn't be as secret as you think. It's far easier to track an outbound object than it is to find one you know nothing about.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

If you can’t “see” your test, say because it has detonated on the far side of Venus...

How will you know if your test was a success?

Anything sent in the bomb package would be destroyed by the blast, if it occurs.

Then again, it might just be that the radio stops working, because...they just do sometimes.

And, even if the result of the test do get sent back successfully to Earth, every radio telescope on the planet tracking an unacknowledged radio signal beaming from “something” heading to, and now in the vicinity of, Venus, will pick up the signal.

Even encrypted, it won’t be difficult for the world’s intelligence services to “put two and two together”.

Great thread before this gets derailed by the space exploders just gonna let you in on a secret if we have not been back to the moon since f4eva (kicked off) how are is China gonna send rocket into space undetected?
Plus the Firmament would stop it.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

What consequences should China face if true? They are already in the hot seat for bio weapon escape now they are testing nukes that is some scary snip.



a reply to: anzha

a reply to: CrazyFox

Odd how the firmament didn't stop us going to the moon, Mars, Venus, or out of the solar system, but it will stop the Chinese.