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Stanford study shows Covid-19 less deadly than flu

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posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:02 AM
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I slip and fall off a cliff, and the injuries are really bad, and I am not going to make it. I only have a few hours to live. The EMTs don't know that yet. So they fly in a helicopter to pick me up and take me to the hospital. The chopper gets there in fifteen minutes. The hospital is only ten minutes away by chopper. On the way to the hospital, the chopper crashes and everyone dies, including me. Would you say I died from the fall off the cliff, or would you say I died as a result of a helicopter crash? There are rules and laws as to how someone lists the cause of death.

However, if someone is on the edge, and the virus is the final nail in the coffin, that is far different than someone who is healthy, gets the virus, and dies solely from that.

We see that some healthy people are getting the virus and dying. But I suspect, most are people who were operating on borrowed time.

I think the biggest problem with this virus is how long you can have it and still spread it, and how easily it is passed on. Those two factors weigh heavily into the equation. It's not only that the virus kills. It's that this virus with those two factors can overwhelm a health system that isn't prepared or has the capacity to take care of lots of people at once. Which means, not only will people who get the virus and have to be in a hospital, and suffer. It means those with other problems like heart attacks and broken arms will not get the proper medical attention if needed. The system will be overwhelmed with patients and lots will die as a result.

All that being said, poverty and ruin create a lot of death also. So as I see it, it's a very fine balancing act we are in.

I am always fascinated that most people seem to see things in black and white. That people seem to think there isn't a third option. That option being somewhere in between.




posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:02 AM
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It's not the first time Stanford university has come out with something fishy

The John Hopkins university gives a death rate per hundred confirmed cases as over 12 % in Britain and over 10 % in other European nations.

It might suit some overseers to tell you that it's not that bad a disease , and give it three or four weeks you'll find out what a pandemic can do.

How did it get called a SARS virus if it's so mild ?

Maybe dont get caught up with figures mattering too much , (except the r0 bring well high ) , because...

viral pnumonia is rare and a b nightmare to deal with.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:06 AM
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originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: TheLieWeLive

It has not been here since November. It wasn't identified at all in China until November.
37,000 people in eight weeks not four but way deadlier than the flu.


Where did I say it was here since November and again how would we know if we were not testing for it then?



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:11 AM
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a reply to: Sillyolme

How many people do you know that died? Personally, I’m curious to how this has affected you besides inconvenience at the market?

Have you had to crawl over any of those bodies stacking up?



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:12 AM
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a reply to: trollz

You're delusional, bud.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:15 AM
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What they've done is take a large irrelevant number and water it down .and leave out critical factors.
Proximity to diseased patients ... the size of the viral load you might get in the first place is also determinative of the outcome , that's why doctors nurses and public transport workers like bus drivers are high risk with high numbers of deaths regardless of underlying conditions they were healthy in the first place , and then ... Dead .
They say , wash your hands ... Is dead right because if you collect a large load of the virus and then contaminate your nose with it , youre more likely to die . It incubates but you could take on millions of virus in the initial infection , and if it's there in numbers in the first place you're going to get a serious disease and more quickly too.
Viral pnumonia .. imagine just how infectious a piece of mucus from affected lungs is .. very dangerous
edit on 18-4-2020 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:19 AM
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From the OP's source, Russia Times (again):


Titled ‘COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California,’ the study was published on Friday at MedRxiv, a service that prints health studies before they have been officially peer-reviewed.


From the website RT links to:


Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.


Nuff said.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:20 AM
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originally posted by: TheLieWeLive

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: TheLieWeLive

It has not been here since November. It wasn't identified at all in China until November.
37,000 people in eight weeks not four but way deadlier than the flu.


Where did I say it was here since November and again how would we know if we were not testing for it then?


He feels it in his bones.

This disease wasn't even unleashed until December...December 24th seems to be the key date

The 3:50 mark of this video shows the timeline start



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 09:54 AM
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originally posted by: Liquesence
From the OP's source, Russia Times (again):


Titled ‘COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California,’ the study was published on Friday at MedRxiv, a service that prints health studies before they have been officially peer-reviewed.


From the website RT links to:


Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.


Nuff said.


For anyone interested, here is a critique of the Stanford study:

LINK

Probably, very few here will be able to follow the math, but here are the author’s main conclusions:


“To summarize, there are three broad reasons why I am skeptical of this study’s claims.
First, the false positive rate may be high enough to generate many of the reported 50 positives out of 3330 samples. Or put another way, we don’t have high confidence in a very low false positive rate, as the 95% confidence interval for the false positive rate is roughly [0%, >1.2%] and the reported positive rate is ~1.5%.

Second, the study may have enriched for COVID-19 cases by (a) serving as a test-of-last-resort for symptomatic or exposed people who couldn’t get tests elsewhere in the Bay Area and/or (b) allowing said people to recruit other COVID-19 cases to the study in private groups. These mechanisms could also account for a significant chunk of the 50 positives in 3330 samples.

Third, in order to produce the visible excess mortality numbers that COVID-19 is already piling up in Europe and NYC, the study would imply that COVID-19 is spreading significantly faster than past pandemics like H1N1, many of which had multiple waves and took more than a year to run their course.”


edit on 4/18/2020 by Blaine91555 because: fixed link



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 10:22 AM
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originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: UKTruth

It's possible the number of infected are much higher and they were asymptomatic. Large scale testing to determine who may have been infected could begin soon, and if it does, it will tell us more. Right now there are just a lot of unknowns. It's very possible it is more infectious, and less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Doesn;t really make any sense. If a large number of people had it and had no symptoms then why all of a sudden did people start dying and being hospitalised?

No one, or very few, in the US had this virus until a couple of months ago. That makes more sense looking at the numbers.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 10:25 AM
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This coronavirus did a lot for this country in ways we do not see yet. For one that there is a vast amount of stupid in this world via those who deny there is a problem for those who seek to stoke the flames of the dead by spreading it. It has brought me to question if the founding fathers knew the majority of Americans would lack reason and common since when writing the constitution and if they had known what Ignorance would emerge in major times of crisis. In the last 20 years, so many have revealed they lack intelligence, moral aptitude, and common decency and to even consider giving them voting rights.

take for example

9/11 the masses believe what the government told them and do not question what appears to be the biggest load of bs and would take quite a bit stretching to make the government's story fit.

The masses believe the Iraq war was about WMD's.

Now here the covid and every country in the world is reporting cases and death and these lunatics deny its existence.

We the smarter folks in America need to seriously start thinking about requiring the masses to take an aptitude test before allowing them to vote.

Because now their ignorance and refusal to observe common since are encroaching on the rights and safety of others.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 10:27 AM
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The way they count Coronavirus deaths...dies of cancer but had Coronavirus, died of gunshot wound but had Coronavirus, etc. I’m surprised there aren’t a lot more deaths.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 10:31 AM
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a reply to: Middleoftheroad

But ooh we are going to run out there and label every death with skepticism because someone starts an unfounded rumor that all COVID deaths didn't happen.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 10:39 AM
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a reply to: tinktinktink

Why not people like you seem to think quarantines and social distancing work. You probably also think since the government gave everyone 1200 bucks, everyone that lost their job is just good to go now right? Or that inflation won’t happen even though they’re just inventing money out of thin air? Problem is the cure is by far worse than the virus, like not even in the same ballpark. But you keep on spreading that fear. In the end you will be paying for it too and your kids and their kids and so on. I’m glad we have smart people like you around.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 10:52 AM
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originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: trollz

Do over 2,000 people a day die from the flu?
The CDC numbers for flu deaths is 27-65k a year.
The US is already at 37k dead from Covid-19 in just 4 weeks.

Where does that leave your linked analysis?



The Chinese Coronavirus is way more contagious than the flu. The flu takes an entire season to cycle through the population and still some people avoid it, and vaccines work for others.

The Chinese Coronavirus kills more in a short period of time, but not necessarily more when extrapolated for an entire season.

And the Chinese Coronavirus is more deadly to people over 60 than than Influenza but less deadly to those under 60.

I came up with a number of .3% several weeks backs simply based on the numbers the MSN said they were using for their models. I don’t know who was putting together the models but they don’t appear to be very good at math.

If the new models based on random testing for those with antibodies are correct, Social Distancing did little to help where people live in large concentrations because by the time this was implemented most people in those large cities were already infected.

Every time Trump pats himself on the back for saving so many lives I cringe because of the number of lives that he destroyed with the financial shutdown. Something needed to be done, but bringing our economy to a hault was a knee jerk reaction based on bad models.

Most likely masks, social distancing and hand washing would have been enough. Bars and restaurants could have stayed open with capacity restrictions, small businesses could have stayed open with customer restrictions and masks for everyone. Large gatherings (under 100) could have continued with masks and proper sanitation protocols. And we would have had similar or maybe even better results without destroying the economy. We could have slowed down the economy without destroying it. Instead we simply destroyed it.


edit on 18-4-2020 by Isurrender73 because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 11:00 AM
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originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: UKTruth

It's possible the number of infected are much higher and they were asymptomatic. Large scale testing to determine who may have been infected could begin soon, and if it does, it will tell us more. Right now there are just a lot of unknowns. It's very possible it is more infectious, and less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Doesn;t really make any sense. If a large number of people had it and had no symptoms then why all of a sudden did people start dying and being hospitalised?

No one, or very few, in the US had this virus until a couple of months ago. That makes more sense looking at the numbers.


It is simple. It affects the weakest people.

The vast majority of the population can get it and show no symptoms, but there is a small portion who for some reason are affected more by it. Just like how regular flu can kill the elderly and other people who have severe co-morbidities.

We have several observable studies with cruise ships and now the US carrier where we can conclusive see that the majority who were infected were in fact asymptomatic. Some get a little sick like any other common cold. However, it does appear to really push over the edge anyone who is already severely unhealthy.

What these studies are showing us is the lock down is totally unnecessary as most people have probably already been exposed to some degree. What we should be doing is changing habits to protect those who are more at risk. For example, changing practices at nursing homes, etc. Encouraging more hand washing. Putting up glass shields (My local Target put up plexiglass for the registers).

Common sense things.... not blowing up the entire freaking global economy which will cause far more indirect deaths and mayhem.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 11:00 AM
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I don't think people are realizing this very, and I DO MEAN VERY, simple fact, about the USA...

We were already just 3 days away from chaos.

You throw a new virus into this all, - ( Our Nation, Simply wasn't design, to have so many sick at once )

It doesn't matter how many die, how many survive, it's SIMPLY ABOUT the DISRUPTION.

Why isn't that understandable? -

Lack of information + MASS Disruption + Lack of preparation = CHAOS.

The last 30 years, our nation hasn't been stockpiling an preparing for this, we've been selfishly hoarding money via shaving off the "prep costs" as we didn't see a need ( most said, "we weren't in WW1 or WW2 times" )

You introduce an new threat ANYwhere, and this will be the result, it takes about 3 months to form new habits, this time is that "adjustment period".



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 11:02 AM
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a reply to: trollz

People don't die from the virus, they die from the bodies reaction to the virus. Where ever people are reading that nonsense that people aren't dying from COVID - 19 don't seem to realize that majority of the people are drowning in their own fluids.
If someone has the virus in them, the bodies reaction is what kills you. Your own immune system kills you. And yes, BECAUSE OF THE VIRUS IN YOUR BODY.



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 11:05 AM
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How can anyone base a death count on only “tested” infection rate.... OH yeah because a guy on the news wearing a lab coat said it was legit.....


The people in here using worldometer, are sad examples of productive minds. Please continue to regurgitate whatever the media tells you, “it’s for your own good”. Forming an opinion and analysis based off of ALL the available data isn’t good (sarrrcasmmm)



posted on Apr, 18 2020 @ 11:06 AM
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a reply to: Tranceopticalinclined

You forgot “mass panic” as one of the factors.....



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