Covid Economic Recovery: Faster Than You Think

originally posted by: litterbaux
a reply to: CriticalStinker

Don’t know you, but I have the same sentiment as a lot of people including you. All this money being created out of thin air is bad, very bad. The market rally is very very typical in a bear market, shake out the bears for the next leg down. I’m very very bad at trading, but there’s one thing I know about myself, when I feel FOMO do not buy.

I’m not buying anything right now, holding SNY, DIS, DFS, TQQQ and lesser amounts in about 20 other companies.

50% cash for the next leg down.

“Market rally is very very typical for a bear” wtf does that mean?

Please link me to charts or data of the S&P 500 that reflects your assertion.

Spoiler alert - This is a trick question btw because you’re find nothing to that end.

I spent a good chunk of my career studying capital markets. I can tell you everything in your post basically outlines half of the cognitive mistakes most investors make.

originally posted by: EnigmaChaser
I've been reading on here (and articles) about how "screwed" we are economically and will be for the foreseeable future.

What say you, ATS?

And what about the problem of automation? Will the economy ever truly recover?

In fact, the total inflation-adjusted output of the U.S. manufacturing sector is now higher than it has ever been. That’s true even as the sector’s employment is growing only slowly, and remains near the lowest it’s been. These diverging lines—which reflect improved productivity—highlight a huge problem with Trump’s promises to help workers by reshoring millions of manufacturing jobs. America is already producing a lot. And in any event, the return of more manufacturing won’t bring back many jobs, because the labor is increasingly being done by robots.

Boston Consulting Group reports that it costs barely $8 an hour to use a robot for spot welding in the auto industry, compared to $25 for a worker—and the gap is only going to widen. More generally, the “job intensity” of America’s manufacturing industries—and especially its best-paying advanced ones—is only going to decline. In 1980 it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in the U.S. Today it takes five jobs.

The automated, hyper-efficient shop floors of modern manufacturing won’t give Trump much room to deliver on his outsized promises to bring back millions of jobs for his blue-collar supporters.

source

It’s precisely the kind of thing that both Clinton and Trump, with varying degrees of emphasis and policy prescriptions, have pledged to accelerate as a way to cure America’s blue-collar woes. Using tougher trade policies with China and others to restore the nation’s manufacturing sector will bring home jobs, the theory goes.

Ranir’s experience appears to back up such assumptions at first blush. After all, now it is American workers who are busy around the clock churning out 13,000 toothbrush heads a day for Wal-Mart, Walgreens and other retailers.

There’s just one catch: Thanks to the new robotic manufacturing process that Ranir adopted, it takes only four workers at the American plant to do the same job that almost certainly required dozens more in China. And they spend much of their time watching to make sure the computer-driven machines are working properly.

Instead of the clang and bustle of a traditional plant, the four workers go about their chores in a clean-room setting, wearing large white protective hats. So what the Ranir story actually shows is not how easy it would be to bring back manufacturing jobs, but how small the results can be, thanks largely to the very thing that made the return possible: automation.

source

Automation and A.I. Programs are going to continue constricting the job market and human labor is becoming more and more obsolete. The economy was sick before the virus as well, needing regular injections of large amounts of cash from the top. The major economic problems were not created by the virus only highlighted by it and they will not be fixed even when the virus goes away.

originally posted by: EnigmaChaser
If you think we're dealing with a dead cat bounce here I think you're sorely misguided...

Oh yeah!

The fact that I talk about PEOPLE and you talk about MONEY says it all.

Again, GOOD LUCK.

originally posted by: Krakatoa
I thought before this everyone in the world hates the U.S. So, why should the U.S. give a crap about helping those countries and citizens that openly hated on us before?

Karma's a bitch, huh?

If so many hate you, why do so many try and talk sense into you to protect you from YOUR masters.

KARMA'S A BITCH, yes.

originally posted by: DanDanDat
Which part of the world are you referung to?

I am refering to anywhere that isn't the U.S. of course.

The U.S. is the only country mentioned in the OP like it is the only country that matters and can function omnipotently.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Sorry but you're obviously naive enough not to understand that things can fundamentally change. For example this statement although previously a reasonable truism , doesn't refer to today's realities .

But like Buffet has said, "stocks are the only thing people don't want to buy when they're on sale". Rings true here too apparently.

When people don't get to buy things , it does not matter what they want to buy, and you can't have a sale without things to put on sale.

You mention hairdressers and restaurants , you make no mention whatsoever of imports or exports .

Seriously , like the last poster said , GOOD LUCK !!

a reply to: American-philosopher

🎶 My hair like Jesus wore it. Hallelujah I adore it.

a reply to: nerbot

Exactly ... It's facepalm moment

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I agree, at least in the basic premise. I've been lookig at it more in the broad terms of all the injection of cash - which, yes, obviously increases the debt, however, it will also serve to - with lag time, even after "normalcy" returns, heat the economy.

Normally, that would also make us think inflation, even "hyper-inflation", at least relative to what we in the US think of as reasonable inflation. Not "we just 50:1 split our currency" like what happens in 3rd world countries sometimes.

However - the value of the dollar (or other nations' currencies) is largely a function of its value vs other currencies, much moreso than it is a function of its value vs gold, or oil, for example. Basically all major economies have injected stimulus money. How we utilize and weather it vs everyone else will determine how well inflation is held down.

The next level, which I believe will take place over a longer timedrame, and is largely dependent on policies, is that a lot of production is likely to be shifted out of China.

How much manufacturing comes home will depend on market demand and policies (trade policies / tarriffs, tax policies and how conducive they are to stimulating domestic production.) Much will be diversified - supply chain gaining more tendrils, purchasing of critical items from suppliers in more nations - this will be largely dependent on quotas, etc.

Corporations, by design, will automatically choose the cheapest option for manufacturing. They won't diversify where they import from "just 'cuz." This needs to be influenced largely through policy. Consumers won't say, "No, I'm not taking my blood pressure meds if they're made in China"

Last thought, as I'm rambling. Prescription medications in the US are INSANELY expensive. We thinknof this as being because of the R&D, etc - not the cost of mixing drums of chemicals and pressing them into pills. The cost savings of producing medications which cost hundreds pr thousands of dollars a month in China, rather than in the US, simply can NOT be that big!

Fauci is singing a lot different tune now than a few weeks ago....

KEY POINTS
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed “cautious optimism” that the deadly coronavirus outbreak is slowing down in the United States.
Fauci said that parts of the country may start to reopen as soon as May.
While the country won’t suddenly turn back on like a “light switch,” there are “indications” that some of the metrics used to gauge the crisis “are starting to level off” in some areas, Fauci said.

www.cnbc.com...

Give it another week...

The market - in my view - is pricing in the thawing narrative. We probably have a little ways to go on the upside there - with some wiggles along the way, to find the right price for equities today.

I’ll be interested to see who opens up first as obviously some states represent a materially larger contribution to GDP than others - but I’m of the mind it doesn’t matter who opens up first really. Once the country sees people are out and about it’s going to be hard for others to see it - it will force other states hands - and I suspect red states will open first. Lefties will rail on that and then be proven wrong when we find out it’s ok to be living life again.

Best thing that the Dems could do for their 2020 bid is plant the flag of victory over via the west coast governors - “see! Look what we did - we flattened the curve!” - sound the bell their going to be ok going forward at scale and ramp up their economies. That would not only be a surprise to the upside for markets but they get to win on both fronts - solve the virus and still care about jobs.

The extended lockdown game will backfire come election time methinks if they don’t.

One other thing to consider here is how wonderfully the left coast played its people economically.

Do you think people who have money are actually going to be crippled by this financially? Very unlikely over 45-90 days.

To “protect the vulnerable” they made the economically “vulnerable” more dependent. It’s a thing of beauty if you’re a leftist. You get to “take care” of two swaths of the population, for different reasons, under the same storyline.

I say this not just as it pertains to the recovery, but also to highlight the damage this is causing while it going on and the implications of the actions.

It’s the above observation, couple with others, that make me SMH every time someone says “the Governors of the west coast did a great job!” BS. They ruined many more lives than they saved and created slaves to the system - wake up people.

So am i too assume you wont get a chipped vaccine? You do see where this all going? The virus is a cover up to a failed financial system since 08. The MSN is throwing propaganda bombs our way.. For me the lies and deceits are a tell tale sign of a greater agenda..a reply to: EnigmaChaser

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

It may seem obvious to you (and me), but do note that many who are touting the "success" of draconian measures are quite consistent in their behavior for years now.

The seeds were planted long ago, Trump seemed to have served as the impetus to start the flowering cycle, and this event is what is bearing fruit.

Many talk about things like "the left eating their own," but the unique part about this new age of programming is that it is behavioral, and not based in actual content. The content of thought is more incidental, only serving as a focus for programmed behavioral response.

Weve never seen a Cult established on this scale, through these means. Its absolutely brilliant work, even if it aint good. Its all based in projection, doublespeak, and hijacking idealism to direct it into action. Specifically, action that has nothing to do with those ideals.. the Green New Deal vs actual environmental concerns being just one example.

Ive even experienced in my personal life with people that should really know better. If you dont go along with the *behavior*, you are considered *opposition*. The content/subjects du jour can change literally overnight. If you dont go along with it, there is a very well defined box you get thrown in. Usually in terms of "far right," "racist," "blind Trump supporter," and now framed on the focal point of covid19. Basically any and every term we see the media start hammering ~2012

One of the facets it all hinges upon is creating echo chambers and addiction to extreme emotions/responses, which is quite easily done with tech and addictive social platforms. However, it is also critical to make sure folks in those echo chambers get their input only from those chambers. So, the perception of anyone outside of them must be shaped in a way that never, ever lends itself to consideration. Things like personal opinion are really only "acceptable" in terms of responding to the almighty Sources and Links.

It may seem only tangentially related, but I believe how this all shakes out is quite strictly dependent on how this behavior is directed/misdirected. Even things like automation are almost solely perceived in terms of corporate implementation. Very little is examined outside of that context, within or outside the cult, as they have made certain we are all looking at the seeds they planted instead of the rest of the "garden."

In other words, I think its all up to the corporate state where & how this goes. They established the cult, spent the last few years firming up the shores of the anti-cult.. and now can direct both dependent on what seeds they plant. Its far beyond politics.. Or borders, for that matter..