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“We’re going to have substantially less than 100k deaths”

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posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 05:26 AM
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originally posted by: DanDanDat
And when there are 100,001 deaths will Trump take responsibility for spreading false information?


Trump never takes responsibility for negatives they're always someone else's fault.

It's worth noting that 2,108 people died in the past 24 hours and the US has not yet reached its peak , current known death toll is 18,693 with over 500.000 known to be infected.

Hopefully with better weather the peak will come sooner rather than later.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 08:48 PM
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a reply to: BoscoMoney

about what Fauci said about shaking hands? he said it? during one of the task force briefings.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 09:37 PM
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originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

IMO

The same type of people Who oversee the computer modeling of covid 19, also oversee the presidential polling processes.

Let that sink in.


Yep. if we learned one thing from 2016 is that's pollsters are NOT to be trusted... there's an insane amount of bias in those reports.... like a lot...



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 09:37 PM
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originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

IMO

The same type of people Who oversee the computer modeling of covid 19, also oversee the presidential polling processes.

Let that sink in.


Yep. if we learned one thing from 2016 is that's pollsters are NOT to be trusted... there's an insane amount of bias in those reports.... like a lot...



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 09:41 PM
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originally posted by: gortex

originally posted by: DanDanDat
And when there are 100,001 deaths will Trump take responsibility for spreading false information?


Trump never takes responsibility for negatives they're always someone else's fault.



Of course not, he's a politician; he might as well quite before saying something is his fault. Can you imagine the hysteria that would follow in the news cycle if a president admitted a mistake? The American news industry, and so the American people, would never accept a president who had made a mistake... and that's why we never get one that does.
edit on 11-4-2020 by DanDanDat because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 09:42 PM
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originally posted by: StallionDuck
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

400k people die in the US every year to lead poisoning?



Ehhh It's just people dying. No big deal... right?


Dude you're from Planet Doom and Gloom - you should feel comforted by these numbers!


I'm joking. But on a serious note I need to be clear that I'm not trying to now, and never have been, discounting the loss of human life as trivial. It's saddening, some people are in horrific emotional pain - thousands globally were scared to the moment of their passing. It's extremely humbling and heady stuff. I concede that point entirely.

The scaling is to say that most people think in absolutes - which is the ENTIRE PROBLEM. 100k people die every two weeks in the US alone. 57mm humans died globally in 2015. We have nearly 8bn people on this planet. So, yeah, taken in the context of all of the other things that kill people regularly, this isn't a big deal.... and that's been my point all along.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 09:50 PM
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originally posted by: StallionDuck
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

What point is that? That most people are downplaying this ordeal?

I don't know of anyone who died of the flu in years. So far, I know 2 people not all that 'far from home' that's died to this. Granted, these aren't people I know personally but it's fairly close to home.

Just remember... In a couple months, you need to come back to this post and admit you were wrong.

Look at the numbers... 1.7 million infected. 377k people made it out alive but no telling what they made it out with. 102k dead.

Guess what.. There are still 1.7 million people infected. A ungodly amount infected but unknown or unreported.

Read that again until it makes sense.

377k people survived with and without severe health complications.

102k dead

1.7 million still actively infected with unknown conditions.


I guess 1 out of 4 dead so far vs the ones that recovered to 'some' extent isn't so bad, is it?


20k people in ONE COUNTRY dead

16k dead in Spain

13k dead in France

9k dead in the UK

6 THOUSAND people dead in one city - New York CITY. Not New York STATE.

This is only over how long now? It's been a little over 2 and a half months and nearly 20k dead in the US alone. It started slow and it quickly started going up hill.


Don't nit pick the numbers. Cities are going to have a high dead ratio because of the amount of people in close proximity. That's 84% of the US population. Countries are already starting to have a second wave of infected. People who just got over it are getting it again... The flu doesn't do that... unless you get another strain, that is and that's not very often.


Playing this down is the same essence as those idiots who knew this was going on and decided to go spring breaking... They're scared now and they should be. I'd hate to kill someone in my family due to my own stupidity.


Go on... Play this down all you want. I wont tell you I told you so but I'm certain someone will.


Keep fear alive dude. Keep fear alive...

How can you hold to this when this can be scaled 10 ways from Easter Sunday, the data is coming in WAY WAY WAY below what was "predicted", countries in the EU are on the precipice of re-opening, and you're over here bagging on some "morons" who wanted to get his party on over spring break?

Please link me to articles that support the mass death of partying spring breakers.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 09:54 PM
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originally posted by: StallionDuck
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

400k people die in the US every year to lead poisoning?



Ehhh It's just people dying. No big deal... right?


You know... I thought about this a little more...

What do you think my point is?



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:14 PM
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originally posted by: EnigmaChaser
Keep fear alive dude. Keep fear alive...

How can you hold to this when this can be scaled 10 ways from Easter Sunday, the data is coming in WAY WAY WAY below what was "predicted", countries in the EU are on the precipice of re-opening, and you're over here bagging on some "morons" who wanted to get his party on over spring break?

Please link me to articles that support the mass death of partying spring breakers.

You're comparing the current numbers with the worst case estimates made at the beginning which relied on everyone going about their normal day-to-day activities (essentially no lockdown measures). Yes the numbers are a lot lower, because people took the predictions seriously and reacted to them. That was kind of the point... But of course now the hardcore deniers will pretend the low numbers are nothing to do with the lockdown measures and it was all just a sham for no good reason! ~facepalm~
edit on 11/4/20 by Navieko because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:18 PM
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a reply to: Navieko

The 150,000-240,000 "predicted" by the IHME model was WITH social distancing measures. It was 2,200,000 without. And now the CDC Director already admitted it was put out to scare people, so I don't have to pretend those numbers were ever legitimate. We went from 200,000 to 60,000 estimate (both with social distancing) in eight days. That's an Easter Miracle, I guess.
edit on 11-4-2020 by RadioRobert because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:24 PM
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a reply to: RadioRobert
What those estimates will not tell you, is how many lives were saved by implementing the lockdown measures. did they get the severity of the flu wrong, or simply underestimate the effectiveness of the lockdown measures? An estimate is simply an educated guess using the best available data... but when we're dealing with a fluid situation that we've never really experienced (in this day and age) before -- it seems sensible to err on the side of caution and go with the "better to be safe than sorry" option. Sorry but lives are more important than our ability to go on with our usual daily routines.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:24 PM
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originally posted by: Navieko

originally posted by: EnigmaChaser
Keep fear alive dude. Keep fear alive...

How can you hold to this when this can be scaled 10 ways from Easter Sunday, the data is coming in WAY WAY WAY below what was "predicted", countries in the EU are on the precipice of re-opening, and you're over here bagging on some "morons" who wanted to get his party on over spring break?

Please link me to articles that support the mass death of partying spring breakers.

You're comparing the current numbers with the worst case estimates made at the beginning which relied on everyone going about their normal day-to-day activities (essentially no lockdown measures). Yes the numbers are a lot lower, because people took the predictions seriously and reacted to them. That was kind of the point... But of course now the hardcore deniers will pretend the low numbers are nothing to do with the lockdown measures and it was all just a sham for no good reason! ~facepalm~


Facepalm? You do realize that you're making a point that's unprovable... right? Unless you have the ability to go all Star Trek on us and run "alternate timelines" then we only have the reality we have.

You also are parroting the "official narrative" really well - which makes me highly suspicious given the data that's been put out on this subject - which others and I covered at great length in other threads.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:25 PM
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originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Navieko

The 150,000-240,000 "predicted" by the IHME model was WITH social distancing measures. It was 2,200,000 without. And now the CDC Director already admitted it was put out to scare people, so I don't have to pretend those numbers were ever legitimate. We went from 200,000 to 60,000 estimate (both with social distancing) in eight days. That's an Easter Miracle, I guess.


bingo.



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:33 PM
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originally posted by: Navieko
a reply to: RadioRobert
What those estimates will not tell you, is how many lives were saved by implementing the lockdown measures. did they get the severity of the flu wrong, or simply underestimate the effectiveness of the lockdown measures? An estimate is simply an educated guess using the best available data... but when we're dealing with a fluid situation that we've never really experienced (in this day and age) before -- it seems sensible to err on the side of caution and go with the "better to be safe than sorry" option. Sorry but lives are more important than our ability to go on with our usual daily routines.


How about neither, because they already admitted that their numbers were a scare campaign to get people compliant. And I am not against people taking precautions. I do, too. We all have families. Take responsibility for your own decisions.
I AM against the gross Constitutional infringement justified by lies, and terrorizing people because I want to manipulate them to do something. It will never be okay, and now they know exactly how easy it is to strip you of rights in a "crisis" real or imagined.
"Better safe than sorry," indeed.
edit on 11-4-2020 by RadioRobert because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:37 PM
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a reply to: EnigmaChaser
Why unprovable? It's actually really simple maths. Before the lockdown measures were implemented (which would obviously skew the data now) it was well established that the R0 of the covid-19 virus was significantly higher than the flu, the incubation period for the covid-19 virus was significantly higher than the flu, and the hospitalization rate is much higher than the flu. With the available data it appears the death rate is significantly higher than the flu.

Using that available data it was simply a matter of doing the maths which is where those initial estimates came from... and they are still correct as of this moment -- IF -- nothing had been done to stop the spread. That's what you don't seem to understand, the estimates/models are used as a guide to how we should react. Once we react, the estimates change. As we react more, the estimates change again -- as the numbers change. It's not rocket science. That doesn't mean the original estimates were largely incorrect -- it just means we avoided those scenarios by taking action.
edit on 11/4/20 by Navieko because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:47 PM
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a reply to: EnigmaChaser

It's exactly what so many of us predicted. No matter what, they did the right thing. They've built themselves a nice safe non-falsifiable position. There will be zero accountability for any of it. In fact, large segments of the population are going to cheer them. They "saved the day", and it only cost us fundamental civil liberties like the first amendment and the economy.

No threshold for action. No threshold for when it will end. Completely ruling by decree. Arresting parents for being in the park with their kids, breaking up funerals and religious assembly by gunpoint threatening them with permanent closure, can't go out side without papers, generated tens of millions of unemployed in weeks, collapsed entire industries, injected inflationary faux liquidity, began the road to an even larger upcoming mass homeless pandemic, breadlines abd and empty grocery stores, and we're still apparently cheering them on. "Good job! We saved a completely indeterminate number of people!"

It's really brilliant because the wartime themes (invisible enermy, at war, etc) play alongside the fear and promote unity, while it simultaneously feeds the narcissistic need on two levels: "I'm helping. I'm doing something. Look how much I care" AND "I care more than her! I am better than her" encouraged by weaponizing people to snitch on neighbors and family.


edit on 11-4-2020 by RadioRobert because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 10:51 PM
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a reply to: Navieko




and they are still correct as of this moment -- IF -- nothing had been done to stop the spread


NO. The IHME models were "best case" WITH social distancing. None of the actions changed. Stop lying.



The White House presented sobering numbers on Tuesday that the best-case scenario with full mitigation measures in place is between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the United States. Those figures would exceed the U.S. death toll from the Vietnam War and Korean War combined.

Link



posted on Apr, 11 2020 @ 11:18 PM
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a reply to: RadioRobert

Nailed it.

Absolutely spot on.

Bravo



posted on Apr, 12 2020 @ 10:13 AM
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originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Navieko




and they are still correct as of this moment -- IF -- nothing had been done to stop the spread


NO. The IHME models were "best case" WITH social distancing. None of the actions changed. Stop lying.



The White House presented sobering numbers on Tuesday that the best-case scenario with full mitigation measures in place is between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the United States. Those figures would exceed the U.S. death toll from the Vietnam War and Korean War combined.

Link


Boom.



posted on Apr, 12 2020 @ 01:47 PM
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originally posted by: StallionDuck



Oh I guess it's true that it's no big deal until it kills your mother, your father, grandparents or your wife and kids...

amiright?



I already lost a grandmother due to the flu. You don't see me crying for quarantine over it.
edit on 12-4-2020 by Firepac because: (no reason given)



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