“We’re going to have substantially less than 100k deaths”

www.cnbc.com...

Per POTUS:

Trump said early estimates indicated the U.S. could have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from the coronavirus and up to 2.2 million if the U.S. didn’t take any action to control the pandemic. He said states like New York have recently reported declining hospital admissions and nationwide the number of new cases is flattening, “substantially suggesting we’re near the peak.”

“We’ll see what it ends up being but it looks like we’re headed to a number substantially below the 100,000 that would be the low mark, and I hope that bears out,” Trump said.

He’s probably right.

My data says that the “severe/critical” case rate is materially declining relative to new cases. Death rate of those cases is falling slightly as well.

BUT!

For those of you who nerd out of the data front you probably noted one crucial missing detail - no time bound.

I bet we do get more than 100k deaths all-in over the coming year or two. That wouldn’t shock me at all. But by the same token, we also know that many things kill that many people over the course of a year or years.

I point this out as I have a sneaking suspicion that the MSM will continue to talk about the deaths for some time - and provide you with zero scale as a result. This keeps the fear alive and they’ll play it up until people either a) don’t care any longer or b) enough data is released that you can’t continue to hold the doomsday scenario any longer without putting your idiocy on full display.

I think we’re getting closer to point B. There’s still plenty of scary headlines but that is slowing - and more fact-based stories are emerging that are positive.

Oh Totally! I thought I just saw Fuaci say it was 60,000 now. ( we wont have that either)

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Thats what my Uncle was saying to that you don;t know how many people that this virus could kill in over a year tiem frame or so. But going what the "task Force" was saying. They made it seem like there models were for a month time frame. Whne you combine it with the guidelines and bench marks that Trump began with at the start of the month. It made it seem like we are going to have 100,000 people die in a months time frame. "We have a dark two weeks ahead" remember that?!

Just wait til Trump starts opening up the country to getting back to work.
24/7...MSM will blame Trump for every single new CV death for opening up the country too soon.

Im sorry, Im really confused here.

I have always assumed that the 100k-200k death projections were over an 18 month period. No one ever said it was a 2 week projection... just that the next 2 weeks would be probably the worst part.

200k deaths is alot whether its in a month or a year.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

wow! only 100.000? that's nothing. i'm rather pro-life but who am i telling? luckily the government and the state media, especially fox, took this virus seriously in time. well done, america!

Heart attacks are up 4x nationally. China reported that reinfection people were having heart attacks. These are not being counted either. Some of these are the same home pickups that aren't be counted.

originally posted by: sligtlyskeptical
Heart attacks are up 4x nationally. China reported that reinfection people were having heart attacks. These are not being counted either. Some of these are the same home pickups that aren't be counted.

Covid attacks the heart as well. Notice many do not have respiratory symptoms.

khn.org...

In addition to lung damage, many COVID-19 patients are also developing heart problems — and dying of cardiac arrest.

As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.

That work has already resulted in changes in the way hospitals deal with the cardiac implications of COVID-19. Doctors have found that the infection can mimic a heart attack. They have taken patients to the cardiac catheterization lab to clear a suspected blockage, only to find the patient wasn’t really experiencing a heart attack but had COVID-19.

Jorde said that after COVID-19 patients recover, they could have long-term effects from such heart damage.

originally posted by: American-philosopher
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Thats what my Uncle was saying to that you don;t know how many people that this virus could kill in over a year tiem frame or so. But going what the "task Force" was saying. They made it seem like there models were for a month time frame. Whne you combine it with the guidelines and bench marks that Trump began with at the start of the month. It made it seem like we are going to have 100,000 people die in a months time frame. "We have a dark two weeks ahead" remember that?!

I do remember that!

And that’s actually one of the points I have tried to analyze by tracking data. At no point did we even come close to scratching the surface of a trend that would get us to 100k deaths - never mind 240k deaths.

By the end of next week, I’m guessing we’re at about 30-35k deaths. Not even CLOSE to what was predicted and all of the things we’re enduring had been predicated on.

And I’ve said this before, but about 7.5k people die daily in the US alone. One death about every 12 seconds. When you scale The Vid against our standard business - and then consider who the overwhelming majority of the fatalities can be attributed to (elderly, pre-existing conditions, full blown ‘betis, etc.) then you realize that the death count attributed to The Vid is inconsequential.

originally posted by: Lucidparadox
Im sorry, Im really confused here.

I have always assumed that the 100k-200k death projections were over an 18 month period. No one ever said it was a 2 week projection... just that the next 2 weeks would be probably the worst part.

200k deaths is alot whether its in a month or a year.

Did you know complications tied to lead poisoning kill ~400k people a year? Seriously. Look it up.

200k deaths out of a 330mm population is a rounding error. And even more of a rounding error thinking globally.

It’s not if you’re stuck thinking in absolute terms with no scale - sure - 100k is terrifying.

But, when you realize 10k people a year die on the toilet.

www.cleverly.me...

That’s right, 10k people die trying to clear their bowels. And we have lost ~15k to Covid.

Plus when you realize 50k+ people die weekly in the US, this no longer carries the weight you’re referencing.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

IMO

The same type of people Who oversee the computer modeling of covid 19, also oversee the presidential polling processes.

Let that sink in.

Why are you talking in terms of "X per year" compared to something that's really only been a big thing for a few weeks? Do you see the fallacy?

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I was looking at number the other day. Approximately 2.5 million people die annually in the US. I was guesstimating that number could of climbed to anywhere from 5-7 million deaths due to the corona virus if things went badly.

I think that the quarantine guidelines implemented will seriously put a dent in that guesstimate. Hopefully we keep that number under 100k.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

400k people die in the US every year to lead poisoning?



Ehhh It's just people dying. No big deal... right?

And when there are 100,001 deaths will Trump take responsibility for spreading false information?

originally posted by: hombero
Why are you talking in terms of "X per year" compared to something that's really only been a big thing for a few weeks? Do you see the fallacy?

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Adding to that but all of these numbers are mix match. They use US numbers then jump on a world wide number, then back to compare to a US number.

Jeeze people! Over 102k people have already died from this in only a couple months!

"But but but... the flu and cancer and plane crashes and broken hips kill more people..."

Yeah.. those are problems too! Just what we need.. Another virus that kills hundreds of thousands of people ON TOP of the numbers of everything else contributing to death.

"But but but... It's still a small number compared to the flu... Why quarantine?"

Oh I guess it's true that it's no big deal until it kills your mother, your father, grandparents or your wife and kids...

amiright?

I remember reading somwhere that approximately 80.000 people in US die from so called "ordinary flu" every year. I am wondering what that figure is going to be now? Are they going to count those that died from"ordinary flu" into corona deaths? If the figure is substantially less than 80.000 than that would be the case. I think there is lot of manipulation with those numbers.

Some folks are just not going to let it go. Just have to be right, just have to be right. Look, somewhere in the middle we will co-exist. Lives saved by measures taken to save them VS what we give up in return. Don't make this political because there's not ONE of you that would have done the job and not be criticized for it. We, meaning the ENTIRE planet are not ready for this kind of thing. That's all there is to it. But you also CANNOT destroy peoples lives because of it either. It's definitely a very very fine balancing act. Things ARE going to go back to something resembling what we had before. Like it or not. Hopefully WE, as in the supposedly smart animals that "rule" this planet need to get together and do something so the response is better. The truth of it all though is, in the end, if this was a kill shot virus we'd be in big big trouble right now. We would never stop something like a killer virus, or an asteroid or anything like that. So maybe just sit back, enjoy your days and keep in mind that this will all get better...soon. OR, keep beating that terror drum and live in fear. Whatever.

a reply to: BoscoMoney

what are you talking about "resembling what we had before" Fauci said that we might ever shake hands again?? I thought I heard him say that?? A woman on the radio was saying that she thought it was a good thing that maybe if people were not allowed to touch her ever again.

Sure we might be stadiums again. but I think there could lasting consequences from this that we have yet to foresee.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser


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