2018 flu vs cov-19

originally posted by: Isurrender73

originally posted by: ScepticScot
60k deaths is the low end estimate with the mitigation measures.

With out them the death toll would have been much much higher.

We can’t even say for sure when this disease first came to the US. If this disease showed up in late November or December and spreads as rapidly as reported we are likely flattening the curve the same way we do every year with the flu. Everyone gets it, some people show little to no symptoms, some people get various degrees of illness and some people die. Then the end of flu season comes. This is an annual cycle that has been going on since the first flu season, whenever that was.

You must also consider we have vaccines for the annual flu and a lot of people have built up immunities but it still kills 60,000.

So any new strain is likely to have a higher mortality rate than the previous strains. Maybe we should practice better protocols for the elderly and immune compromised but the rest of us need to continue living.

It is impossible to know what mitigation has done to the curve, but if it believing in mitigation makes you feel better about giving up your rights I’m certain the government will let you know how successful mitigation is.

Yes we do have some natural immunity and vaccinations for the flu, things we don't have for this virus. That is kind of the point.

It has already been covered that there are ,real world examples of what this virus can do without sufficient and early mitigation measures.

It's pointless to keep comparing this to seasonal.fly as It us Not the same.

We aren't giving up our rights, we are responding to an emergency situation with temporary measures.

originally posted by: Isurrender73

It is impossible to know what mitigation has done to the curve. However, if believing in mitigation makes you feel better about giving up your rights I’m certain the government will let you know how successful mitigation was. And how necessary it is to give up our rights for mitigation.

originally posted by: LordAhriman

originally posted by: Scepticaldem
You know anyone really sick with covid? I had it for 4 days 2 weeks ago....

But you know all about it right?

Lolz🤪

I do. He's been in ICU on a respirator since Monday night. Did you test positive? Or just get the sniffles and assume you had it?

I inquired 15 times but they wouldnt give me a test...

But no bud, I was really bad for 1 night, more than sniffles....

Lolz😜

a reply to: payta

My point about mitigation is not that it can’t and doesn’t work.

It’s that we may have had this virus the entire flu season and only started mitigation towards the end of the natural cycle. If this virus acts like other Corona viruses and doesn’t do as well in the warmer climate, it is natural for the numbers to be going down through April. Which I believe is why Trump originally said we would be good in April.

Mitigation can work but at what point do we start mitigation? I am certain that some of the countries that didn’t have quite the influx from China as the US who started mitigation efforts at the same time as the US will have better results due to mitigation.

We can even see that regionally here in the US.But that is not the scenario we have playing out in our larger cities here in the US.

And statistically speaking this is not the Spanish Flu, and has not proven to be too hard on the younger population.

I have said from the beginning that the elderly and immune compromised should isolate to avoid this disease. But the rest of us should have kept working IMO.

I even posted a thread a few weeks ago in support of some mitigation steps being taken, just so you understand I did not change my stance due to the numbers you have presented.

a reply to: Isurrender73

In this case, I think its of great importance to look at what other countries have gone through.
I have been following the development since january, and the USA acted a bit late on this one. The UK did too.

So I have predicted these countries would be hit the hardest.
Brazil is also on the way to being hit hard by the virus.
I think we've seen in countries like Italy and Spaion what happens if you dont act early to stop the spread. Thei main issue is the 14 day incubation period, which is a long time, and puts you always two weeks behind the real scenario.

a reply to: payta

I agree with you. But I don’t blame the leadership of some of these countries, as I think the major transportation hubs had this virus sooner than was understood.

Here in the US Trump got push back every step of the way. And now those that were pushing back are blaming him for not acting soon enough. It’s quite absurd the political landscape here in the US.

Can’t speak for other countries but that is my take here. And I still think Sweden’s response, although may have a slightly higher initial death toll will likely have been as effective as the mitigation steps take elsewhere in the long run.

Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

Maybe the whole thing is Just Another Dam Exercise, or maybe it wasn't. Everyone used to practice hiding under desks due to the risk or likely hood of a nuclear war between the States an the Siovets, which never happened.

Yet, if the states were to ever have a call to arms, how many would bend over to service in nice single file line?

I'm hoping that the states will be back to grinding at the end of the month...hopefully.

originally posted by: SeektoUnderstand
so by using logic.... 85-95% of this country has or has had this “virus”..... meaning it’s a nothing burger.

I believe I stated that a LONG time ago ... less the nothing burger part.

But you and most other people have ignored your critical thinking; decided to trade your rights, freedoms and peice of mind (once again) for a fear campaign created by the government and media.

Not this guy.

In return to offer you a solution for your fear based on common sense techniques that we’ve known about for decades.

Don't put words I'm my mouth WallOfTextGuy. I'm not happy about ANY of this.

The flu which isn't just one virus killes 80k per year coronavirus killed 60k in a few months. Sounds like legit reasoning...
*SMH*

It doesn't take a math wiz to impose Italy's death toll to Americans population and see how bad it could have been.

a reply to: paraphi

Well, its probably because they are both infectious diseases. And, the worst pandemic in (relatively) recent history was.. "the" flu (H1N1). H5N1 isnt so great either, but has yet to truly reach a global outbreak.

So, the medical treatments and symptoms may differ, but its the same subject. Of course, most people erroneously look at the flu as that seasonal thing that we get a semi-effective vaccine pushed on us

You are totally correct about the statistics though. They were heavily abused during this time, and combined with a pretty high level of ignorance of infectious diseases (alongside how many die worldwide, even from things like Tuberculosis), people were whipped up into a panic real quick.

Do note, this is coming from someone that believes we should absolutely have protocols in place for just these situations. We know they happen, and especially in the last ~50 years, the west has gotten "lucky" in that most outbreaks dont take hold.

That said, there are ways to go about that without doing what was done. In the US, we are still our "Father's" children in many ways. Hell, a simple change of tactic in one regard would have many less angry: incentivize the desired behavior instead of punishing the "bad" behavior. We are already spending a ton of money, might as well direct it instead of just throwing it in the air.

The problem is that that punishment, in many cases, directly contradicts some Documents that we hold dear. Well.. Some of us. There are issues beyond that, in consolidating centralized corporate control, but not too many seem to care about that. Or what nations might be continuing their buyout of the west in general. Or how much.. business interest.. other nations may have bought in the areas with the most social influence.

I think there is a lot more going on here, and thats what has me concerned.

originally posted by: SeektoUnderstand
a reply to: Snarl

And Fauci and other medical professionals have consistently said the total of “infected” is likely 100-1000x more than we can show because “lack of testing”.....

... 85-95% of this country has or has had this “virus”....

I don't believe Fauci ever said that. If he did, I would like to see a reference.

What Fauci and other experts have been saying is that without increasing our testing by a factor of 100 or 1000--to include some random testing--we can't know for sure what fraction of those who are infected actually develop symptoms. In places where that level of testing has been done, Iceland, for example, it turns out that about 50% of those infected develop symptoms.

So, that would mean a factor of only 2x.

Currently, there are more than 450,000 known COVID-19 cases in the US. 1000x that number would be more than 450,000,000, quite a bit more than the entire population of the US. I'm sure you'll admit that that is not mathematically possible?

originally posted by: ScepticScot
60k deaths is the low end estimate with the mitigation measures.

With out them the death toll would have been much much higher.

Maybe. Maybe not.

How many deaths will be due to the mitigation efforts?

How many suicides, heart attacks/strokes caused by the stress from losing jobs/livelihoods or even their lifes work (building a business) due to the forced shutdown and constant hyper-fear mongering?

originally posted by: Rob808
According to CDC data 80,000 people died in 2018 in America alone from the flu.

Actually, that number is highly questionable - and manipulable.

It is actually probably much much higher, by at least a factor of 10.

When someone dies from complications from the flu, but they have serious underlying health issues, their cause of death is usually listed as the underlying health issue - unless the CDC wants to boost flogging flu vaccine sales, in that case they'll boost the number of deaths to scare the vulnerable into getting the vaccine of the day.

a reply to: Jamie2018

DOCTOR : Hey Canada we need to take your temperature, bend over and spread your cheeks.

CANADA : OK Doctor, I will do anything to stop the spread of this deadly virus.

DOCTOR : Your temperature is a bit high, self isolate for another 2 weeks.

CANADA : Whatever you say Doctor, I'm just a Canadian - I don't ask questions, I just do as I'm told.

We just have better healthcare.

Our societal habits regarding social distancing is not any different than other countries going thru this engineered quarantine. So, stop being petulant in your response. Again, maybe our total infected/death rate per capita are lower due to a difference in infrastructure and not for the "submissive* reasons you project ...?

If you want to go down that road of being submissive society; I have a long list of what the American population is lacking that is considered basic needs in other developed nations. Don't go there...