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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality & healthcare demand

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posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 10:45 PM
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The following is a research paper authored by 32 medical experts whom are part of the Imperial-College COVID-19 Response Team.

Even though i posted this research paper as a response in another thread, it is important for as many people as possible read this research paper and realize this virus is a real threat.

In this research paper they conclude that if there is no response to this, or if people just act like "this is the regular flu" we could be seen a total of over 510,000 deaths in Great Britain, and the U.S. could have 2.2 million deaths because of SAR-CoV2/COVID-19.



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Whilst our understanding of infectious diseases and their prevention is now very different compared to in 1918, most of the countries acrossthe world face the same challenge today with COVID-19, a virus with comparable lethality to H1N1 influenza in 1918. Two fundamental strategies are possible2:
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Results

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months(Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scaleof the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B)than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due tothe smaller size of the country andits older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
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16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

A lot of people, even in these forums, want to act as if this virus is "just like the regular flu", but it isn't so. This virus has the potential of infection infections and death that the H1N1 1918 pandemic, aka the Spanish flu, caused and could even be worse.

In that other thread I also gave the following info. Which btw I do not own, or hold stocks on "quinine."

"BTW, to those that don't know this tonic water with quinine could be effective in helping recover faster if you have COVID-19.

Quinine was used effectively to fight malaria for centuries(not decades), and malaria treatments like Hydroxicloroquine and chloroquine have been proven effective against COVID-19.

However, like always consult with your doctor. People that shouldn't use quinine include pregnant women, among others, so consult with your doctor always before using quinine.


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Use. Quinine has been used for the treatment of malaria and associated febrile states, leg cramps caused by vascular spasm, internal hemorrhoids, varicose veins, and pleural cavities after thoracoplasty. Dosing. Quinine has been widely studied as an antimalarial, and has been used at doses of 325 mg to 1 g as the sulfate salt.
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Quinine


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Diseases that decimated New World populations included smallpox, chicken pox, bubonic plague, whooping cough, typhus, and malaria. An indirect consequence of the Columbian Exchange was the discovery of quinine which is an anti-malarial drug. Quinine is from the bark of the cinchona tree found in mountain forests of Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. This present from the New World was not discovered until the 19th century.
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THE COLUMBIAN EXCHANGE

Quinine was also effective in treating the bubonic plague/the black plague, and other illnesses that cause high fever.



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By the time Europeans reached and colonized the Andes the indigenous population already used the bark of the Cinchona tree (quinine) to treat malaria and other types of fever.
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The global history of quinine, the world’s first anti-malaria drug

Althou some doctors are not recommending quinine, my mother has had neuropathy in her legs for years, and the only thing that makes the pain, and cramps go away is tonic water with quinine.

BTW, my mother's neuropathy is from pinched nerves caused by several herniated discs in her spine. She was a nurse in South Florida and had an accident while pushing one of those large hospital beds.

Today we bought a few bottles at Albertsons, and they were 69 cents each liter of tonic water with quinine. You don't need a doctor's prescription to buy tonic water with quinine.

I recommend people to buy tonic water with quinine. But it's up to you what you do, and again ALWAYS consult with your doctor first."

BTW, I am not calling for the "destruction of our Constitutional rights" but people have to remember the difference between anarchism, and the responsibilities that come with freedom.




edit on 1-4-2020 by ElectricUniverse because: add and correct comment.




posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 11:02 PM
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I don't know about in the USA but in the Uk it is Indian tonic Water that has the quinine, ordinary tonic water doesn't. It was very popular during the British Occupation of India due to malaria and was originally exported from Peru in the form the tree bark and soon after in the 1800's seeds were being smuggled out of Peru and the rest is history
and gin & tonic was born!



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 11:07 PM
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a reply to: PhyllidaDavenport
Add a touch of lime juice to prevent scurvy. Hell, might as well add some juniper (gin).



posted on Apr, 2 2020 @ 12:10 AM
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I'll just drink my coffee. It has some quinine in it. I may pick up a couple of bottles of tonic water and use that to brew the coffee. I read somewhee it actually makes good coffee when you do that.



posted on Apr, 2 2020 @ 10:07 AM
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only problem is you would have to drink 20 liters of tonic water a day to get enough quinine to be effective. a reply to: ElectricUniverse



posted on Apr, 4 2020 @ 02:24 AM
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originally posted by: HODOSKE
only problem is you would have to drink 20 liters of tonic water a day to get enough quinine to be effective. a reply to: ElectricUniverse



You don't have to drink so much quinine to help your body fight this virus. It isn't a cure but it would help your body fight this virus.



posted on Apr, 4 2020 @ 04:00 AM
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I have read that breathing in through the nose also helps. Our nasal passage not only help filter viruses from reaching the lungs they also have cells that help combat viruses. So when taking a breath, check that it's 100% from nose. If not, close your mouth, when outside. You don't want to give a virus direct passage to your lungs.



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