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Dr. Fauci: Covid19 death rate likely less than 1 percent, more akin to seasonal flu

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posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 12:46 PM
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**If this was posted a while ago, I apologize. I did a quick search for the title of the paper and didn't find it on the site.**

First I'll remind everyone that the media and left wing bloggers and pundits loved Dr. Fauci.

He was "the adult in the room."

He was "Americas's last hope for truth" about the virus.

CNN called him "Trump's coronavirus truth teller."

He was even compared to Michael Jordan.

But lately they're starting to like him less and less. Last week he scolded the media for pitting him against Trump. He even told off one of the reporters in the daily briefing on Thursday? I think it was. He seemed exasperated by the reporter's typically ridiculous line of questioning, said something sarcastic and walked away from the mic. Can't really blame him. Later in the session he apologized to the reporter, classy guy. I wouldn't have.

A month ago, Dr. Fauci, along with two other authors, published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine on Thursday. In it, they make a number of predictions that have proven accurate, such as:


The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread.


and


However, given the efficiency of transmission as indicated in the current report, we should be prepared for Covid-19 to gain a foothold throughout the world, including in the United States. Community spread in the United States could require a shift from containment to mitigation strategies such as social distancing in order to reduce transmission. Such strategies could include isolating ill persons (including voluntary isolation at home), school closures, and telecommuting where possible.9


Here's the part many here aren't gonna want to hear, my emphasis:


On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2


This makes perfect sense, especially here in the U.S. As I'm writing this, the U.S. death rate is a little under 1.7%. For comparison, South Korea, which everyone is hailing as the model for how to handle this, has a 1.5% death rate. Source for all those numbers. You'll have to do the math yourself.

The difference is, South Korea did mass, randomized testing, so their numbers are likely much more accurate than most other countries' numbers. In the U.S., on the other hand, we're only testing people who are sick. That is artificially inflating our death rate. If we were randomly testing like South Korea did, that would dramatically increase our overall number of infected, but it would also dramatically drive down our death rate.

So since Dr. Fauci has been dead on with his other predictions, let's try this one. Estimates vary, but some say as high as 86% of cases may be asymptomatic or mild, and therefore wouldn't be getting counted in the U.S. right now.

Let's be conservative and go with one of the lower estimates, that 60% of people have no symptoms. That means the current U.S. number of infected is likely more like 284,193. With 1,903 deaths, that gives us a death rate of only 0.67%, similar to a severe flu pandemic, just as Dr. Fauci said.

If the higher estimates are right, that means 86% of cases aren't being counted in the U.S. right now. That means our current number of infected is more like 811,979. With 1,903 deaths, that gives us a death rate of only 0.23% or just over 2x the seasonal death rate for flu in the U.S.

Let's stop the panic and fearmongering folks.




posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 12:47 PM
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Regarding media coverage of this when it was published:

CNN did briefly mention comments of his like this on their website. As far as I can tell, MSNBC and NBC never reported it digitally. NY Times buried it in an opinion piece with the headline "Coronavirus School Closings: Don't Wait Until It's Too Late." Fox News didn't cover it as far as I can tell.

This is all web reporting. It may have been mentioned on air on some networks, but if what I've been seeing is any indication, facts like this are being reported quite sparsely.



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 12:56 PM
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posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 12:58 PM
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Here's part of the exchange Fauci had with that reporter. This isn't the whole thing, the guy was basically trying to bait Fauci into calling out the WHO Director, basically just trying to gin up more controversy and bull#. Fauci wasn't having any of it.

WHO has been sucking China's ---- too much, but Fauci just didn't want to get in that mud pit.
edit on Sat Mar 28 2020 by DontTreadOnMe because: edited profanity


+6 more 
posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:09 PM
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a reply to: face23785

Besides china this is all the medias fault.

We know governments even ours are going to lie and drip feed info.

But our media is supposed to be informing us of these dangers . they knew what was going on in China months ago but all they wanted to report on was the ###### impeachment .

They could have done some real journalism and made sure we knew what was coming months ago and to be prepared then . BUT IMPEACHMENT for withholding aide to Ukraine was all that mattered then they withheld aide from us WTF?

They actually had half the country saying its just the flu then when they try and change their tune half the country doesnt believe them because they have been crying wolf for the last 3 years

This is all on the media it is there job to inform us . And they suck at it..
edit on 28-3-2020 by sobored because: (no reason given)


+9 more 
posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:10 PM
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The truth is slowly coming out... we blew up the global economy over the flu.

Once all this settles, the big questions will be who hyped this up and why? Just mass hysteria brought on by social media or other alternative reasons.

It is only so long before people start questioning data and assumptions. Of course, many of us have been doing this from day 1 saying the SAME EXACT THINGS as Dr. Fauci in the article above. However, many people fall sucker for appealing to authority where unless a Ph.D or someone known says it, they ignore the facts and logic.

Who will take responsibility for causing this global fustercluck?



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:12 PM
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a reply to: face23785

Everybody knows. But even under the best circumstances it's around 1/2 million people dead which would have lived under normal circumstances.
And since the number where the course of the disease is serious ie needs hospitalisation is 14% that would mean no less than 52million people are at risk of dying once the health system is overwhelmed.
That's not "No problem" that's 52.108.000 humans, Joes and Johns and Marys and Annas and.... (all numbers US not world wide)

You *insert insult
edit on 28-3-2020 by Peeple because: clarification



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:14 PM
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a reply to: face23785
It's easy for me to believe that the death rate is close to the flu.
However, it only takes small increases in the rate of transmission, critical care patients, and recovery time, to overwhelm to hospitals. As we are seeing in Spain and Italy, the death rate climbs when they can't treat the critical patients.
It is not time to panic. It's time to take this seriously.


+11 more 
posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:15 PM
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Yeah. Never mind what happens when hospitals fill up. It's only as bad as the flu.

Your source:


The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms.6,7


I wonder why seasonal flu doesn't require mitigation strategies.

Community spread in the United States could require a shift from containment to mitigation strategies such as social distancing in order to reduce transmission. Such strategies could include isolating ill persons (including voluntary isolation at home), school closures, and telecommuting where possible.9


The CFR is a moving target and a distraction. What matters now is the number of hospitalizations. Why is that so difficult for some to understand ?
edit on 3/28/2020 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:19 PM
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Again, if it were JUST Covid-19 we were dealing with? No problem.

But it's an ADDITION. And overwhelming our healthcare facilities. It's a real problem. Please take it seriously.



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:25 PM
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I think the key here is the 86% of cases may be asymptomatic. I said weeks ago that it is infeasible to think that these urgent care facilities would be highly infected without a large part of the local population also infected. If you think about it these facilities do not have a high volume of people flowing in and out. On any given day these patients see very few people and live in a very sterile world compared to everyone else, but they get it as everyone else doesn't... Don't but it...

People are getting the virus and giving it to others with no one the wiser. They might think they have a small cold, or seasonal allergies, or nothing at all. It is estimated the real case number is 5 to 10x the reported because of this, and even taking the lower 5x it would total skew the death rate well below 1% at .3. The 61 million number they use to get to .1 death rate during a flu season is also a number that is pulled out of their ass. The only true numbers are those who end up in the hospital and those who die. In a typical flu season those who end up with severe conditions and need hospital care is close to a 10% death rate.

In the US most are not tested unless they need hospital care so if 1900 have died and lets just take 80% of the 116k tested that would mean 93k hospitalized with 1900 deaths so that would be 2%....Well below the 10% we would see from a typical flu season.

I'm not going to say this is not as bad, but .3 would be more inline with how bad it might be.


edit on 28-3-2020 by Xtrozero because: (no reason given)


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posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:25 PM
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a reply to: Phage

Nevermind that both parts you just quoted were already quoted in the OP. Way to add precisely nothing to the thread.




posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:27 PM
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originally posted by: Peeple
a reply to: face23785

Everybody knows.


If everybody knows, why am I still seeing people claim this is 20x deadlier than flu?


originally posted by: Gnawledge
Again, if it were JUST Covid-19 we were dealing with? No problem.

But it's an ADDITION. And overwhelming our healthcare facilities. It's a real problem. Please take it seriously.


No one is saying not to take it seriously. There's a lot of middle ground between "stop the panic and fearmongering" and "don't take it seriously."

What is with you guys and these false dichotomies?
edit on 28 3 20 by face23785 because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:27 PM
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Just like to point out that in the USA the mortality rate of seasonal flu is 0.05%. Whichever way you try to cut the statistics the Covid-19 mortality rate will be significantly higher, at least based on the current situation elsewhere. I am not including the Chinese figures as it seems the Chinese authorities have been dishonest in their reporting.

Best work out the mortality rate after the disease has passed, rather than hoping it will be "...less than 1 percent, more akin to seasonal flu" as per the OP title.



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:27 PM
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a reply to: face23785

I was sorting through the gish galloping. Pointing out the pertinent points.

CFR is a distraction at this point. That's all it is.

edit on 3/28/2020 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:30 PM
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originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Gnawledge
Again, if it were JUST Covid-19 we were dealing with? No problem.

But it's an ADDITION. And overwhelming our healthcare facilities. It's a real problem. Please take it seriously.


No one is saying not to take it seriously. There's a lot of middle ground between "stop the panic and fearmongering" and "don't take it seriously."

What is with you guys and these false dichotomies?


False dichotomies?

I'm just trying to insert some sensibility here. Covid may not have the numbers of the seasonal flu. Thing is, it's new. We don't know it. We know the flu, have data, and deal with it every year. Covid-19 is new. We don't have much data. Just trying to say, take it seriously...it's an unknown.



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:31 PM
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originally posted by: paraphi
Just like to point out that in the USA the mortality rate of seasonal flu is 0.05%.


0.1% according to Dr. Fauci's article. Even if I accept your number, which may be accurate in some years, our current mortality rate may be as low as 0.23%, 4x higher. A far cry from the baseless 10-20x which people keep repeating. That's the only point I'm making here.


Best work out the mortality rate after the disease has passed, rather than hoping it will be "...less than 1 percent, more akin to seasonal flu" as per the OP title.


As per Dr. Fauci you mean?



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:33 PM
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a reply to: face23785

I was wondering why the fearmongers in the media stopped saying Fauci's name. Now we know why. Glad he began distancing himself from those damaging our country.



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:34 PM
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originally posted by: Peeple
Needs hospitalisation is 14% that would mean no less than 52million people are at risk of dying once the health system is overwhelmed.
That's not "No problem" that's 52.108.000 humans, Joes and Johns and Marys and Annas and.... (all numbers US not world wide)

You *insert insult


Where do you come up with 14%? If 86% is asymptomatic that doesn't mean the remaining 14% are in the hospitable. It means that 86% have such low symptoms they don't even know they have anything. A big part of the remaining 14% are people who get sick BUT get over it like a bad flu...As we push past 98% we start maybe to see cases that need more care than just home bed care.

Your 52 million is also based on the WHOLE population and the transfer rate is 1 to 2.2 about the same as the flu. During a bad flu season we see about 60 million that get it not 350 million....

During a normal flu season about 1% of those infected (60 million) need hospitalization and about 10% of them die.


edit on 28-3-2020 by Xtrozero because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 28 2020 @ 01:39 PM
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a reply to: face23785

Because they're not good at math? Because this is still developing and nobody really knows? Because the truth is between your hypothetical 0,23% and Italy's 9% and a lot of it is depending on how we all handle this?



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