One thing that really annoys me about the reporting and conversations on the current CoronaVirus global infections, is the way the governments, the
media, and even us personally, keep comparing countries as if it is some type of horse race... as if there is a comparable difference.
As if one country is doing better than another country.
Unless the country is 100% isolated, we are all exactly the same... maybe just a few weeks either way depending on the severity of the measures being
taken... that's exponentials for you. There are only 2 countries, that I can see, that are not part of the global population anymore (100% isolated);
and maybe Bahrain
Rather than looking forward as what numbers will look like tomorrow or next week, the better way is to work backwards from global population (minus N.
Korea and Bahrain), find an averaged inflection point from a set of exponential's fitting with our current infection totals and rate what it will look
like based on where we currently are), and then divide your countries population to figure out how many infected you will be having at the inflection
point... that is what will happen, based on our numbers and mathematics, regardless of ANY measures your country puts into place... unless 100%
The numbers look something like:
Inflection point - Mid-May to Mid-June globally, (this means every country in the world will experience those numbers between this point in time)
It equates to about 10-12 million infections a day globally (divide by your countries population to figure out what your daily infection rate at that
Once we reach inflection, the graph will look linear (10-12 million a day consistently for at least a couple weeks), then you will see number s
decline (in the first year).
This is fundamental and mathematics... if still connected as a population (just one supply chain), there is NO difference between countries at
edit on 27-3-2020 by puzzlesphere because: (no reason given)