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originally posted by: Hefficide
a reply to: Grambler
My guess would be that the isolation and social distancing frees up medical resources that would otherwise be expended in their absence that, in turn, improves the prognoses of those already infected.
Even with mitigation the predicted deaths is a horrifying number.
Lipsitch goes on to say, “We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.
So, the scenario Dr. Birx is ‘assuring’ us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy’s problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the U.S.
Lipsitch added, “We remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.”
The epidemiologist adds, “Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate, and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.
originally posted by: shawmanfromny
The virus model I'm referring to is the Imperial College London model, which is headed by Professor/Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson.
Many state governors and city mayors in the US are using an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now, which uses the data from the Imperial College London virus model. These US state and local officials use this tool to make decisions on shelter-in-place orders and what needs to be closed in their state/cities.
Here's some interesting information on the mapping tool site COVID Act Now: Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump. The game’s website is now defunct.
In an article published on March 24, Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta stated that the Imperial College London model was flawed:
Government policy and guidance crafted in an effort to “flatten the curve” of coronavirus-related deaths has largely been based upon an Imperial College London model headed by Professor Neil Ferguson.
The terrifying model shows that as many as 2.2 million Americans could perish from the virus if no action is taken, peaking in June.
However, that model is likely highly flawed, Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta argues.
Yesterday, epidemiologist Neil Ferguson offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).
“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.
So much for the prediction of 2.2 million dead people in the United States...I guess the sky isn't falling after all. I wonder if this new revelation will be discussed by the fear mongering media in the US? I have a hunch President Trump is aware of this and it's probably the reason why he wants to get people back to work by Easter. Thoughts?