Pushing back patient zero, possibly good news

a reply to: Boadicea

The fear campaign is unreal. I know people who are in complete panic and terrified despite belonging to demographics with 99.9% recovery rates. And they are begging for the government to "do something!". Scary .

December 2019:
300 Flu deaths in US in a week

The number of deaths from the flu this season reached 1,800 nationwide, including 22 children, and the illness is spiking earlier than it has in years.

At least 300 people died from the flu in the week ended Dec. 21.

Were any of those misdiagnosed, or is it just a particularly bad flu season, too? If the media reported breathlessly on each flu death, would we be in the same spot?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: RadioRobert
The decisions are not being made on the basis of fatality rates, but on hospitalization rates.

How many people are hospitalized solely based on testing positive for SARS-Cov-2, regardless of their symptoms or lack thereof?

Everyone was talking about a weird fast moving flu back in January.
Went through my community like a wild fire. No severe cases but it moved so fast through our house. One day one son came home from work not feeling well and the next morning the rest of us were feeling sick. Husband was sicker and was down for ten days. I was fine after a very short time. Like three days. But I've had a lingering cough ever since too.

a reply to: brewtiger

Italy town finds 40 of 60 volunteers for blood donation have antibodies

I said earlier in the week somewhere (maybe here), that if they aren't aggressively testing for antibodies now that the test exists, they are deliberately prolonging the crisis. Knowing that 60% of the population (if true) already has been exposed and has antibodies would kill most of the panic. It means it's already widely spread and people have been exposed already (and survived). This is oddly only mentioned in the media when it tries to highlight potential danger of infection. "We only have x-thousand confirmed cases, but experts say the number could be 20 times higher!"

Just like there's been no effort to test-widely and figure out what % are mild/asymptomatic. That would collapse the high-mortality rate being presented -- we're four months in, and we are still predominantly testing people with serious symptoms (or who are rich and have well-connected doctors). If you only test serious conditions, then of course your confirmed numbers are worse as a % bc you're testing a minority of actual cases.

Expanded testing would kill the narrative and panic. If you have antibodies, you could return to work relatively safely, be allowed back into civilization from your cage, etc If that number is the predicted 4-20 times the actual number of confirmed cases, we are well on our way out of the panic. But we're not testing? Why?

I'll buy the first few weeks was a cockup that delayed production of a test that worked. But we're in it four months now (just going on the first US case -- add another two for earliest acknowledged case in China). No excuse for lack of testing now. Both for the virus and antibodies.

All the models are garbage-in, garbage-out without that data. Prevalence is THE key data point. Widespread testing would tell you today's number of infections. Antibody testing would tell you the total number of people in a community who have already been exposed. Both those numbers are higher than confirmed testing data driven by limited testing.

The media is a fear machine, and policymakers are enabling it. Why?


If everyone in this thread with questions like SoM, myself, and others could be tested for antibodies and have their stories confirmed, they could reenter society with zero fear. We'd also have a lot less scary data and more complete models. Why isn't prevalence testing priority #1?

a reply to: RadioRobert

Thats interesting. I heard a lot about prior cases to officials start date

Im inclined to believe it. The CCP knew for many months IMO

Official doomsday models for the US have gone from 2.2 million to 240,000 with social distancing to 81,000.

Who could have seen it coming?

N ewsweek

During the study period, the authors of the pre-print say there were nearly 450 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the area served by the water treatment facility, but the latest results suggest that this figure could be an underestimate, although more research is needed to verify this. While the team currently lack the data to provide an accurate figure for the number of people infected in the area, they estimate that it could be anywhere between 2,300 and 115,000—far higher than the official figure in both cases.

More evidence of large numbers of asymptomatic populations.

And m ore.

Their data shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections and the true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions. Their study is available online at www.uni-goettingen.de/vollmer.

Hopefully the Swedes are slowing down.

link

Just 77 deaths yesterday

www.medrxiv.org...

The spread of a novel pathogenic infectious agent eliciting protective immunity is typically characterised by three distinct phases: (I) an initial phase of slow accumulation of new infections (often undetectable), (II) a second phase of rapid growth in cases of infection, disease and death, and (III) an eventual slow down of transmission due to the depletion of susceptible individuals, typically leading to the termination of the (first) epidemic wave. Before the implementation of control measures (e.g. social distancing, travel bans, etc) and under the assumption that infection elicits protective immunity, epidemiological theory indicates that the ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 will conform to this pattern. 
...
Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. Importantly, the results we present here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease.

a reply to: RadioRobert

Most people assume that a terrorist act requires gunfire and explosive devices.

This covid campaign, as you correctly point out, contradicts that public perception. People have fear in their eyes. This is a campaign of terror with mainstream media as the biggest element.

www.medrxiv.org...

Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

Yes, it appears the herd immunity is growing quickly.

a reply to: Salander

We can hope!

LISTING OF DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH PRESS RELEASES
LAcounty.Gov

Los Angeles (April 20, 2020) - USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought.
...
Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600

.

Using the smaller derived number gives us a 0.27% mortality rate in LA. Using the larger number gives us a 0.135% mortality rate.
Using the current confirmed cases number gives us 7.5% mortality rate in LA.

This is happening everywhere they do serology samples for antibodies. The case numbers skyrocket and the mortality rate correspondingly plummets.

San Jose is saying it's first death is 6 FEB now. Gotten from community spread. Between that and China moving back to November, is there any doubt about the early spread of this virus?
Which means all that "massive spike" was probably due to increases in testing trying to catch up to infections, not necessarily logarithmic growth in infections themselves. No wonder so many people are showing antibodies.

France

A patient treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.

This means the virus may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought.

Dr Yves Cohen said a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.

The patient, who has since recovered, said he had no idea where he caught the virus as he had not travelled abroad.

The news is finally catching up...

French patient zero possibly occurred in November. Thread by MSBC.

a reply to: RadioRobert

The evil people behind the scene will make a deadlier virus that attacks Anti-bodies just like AIDs if Gov aren't keeping watch and following false propaganda to attack other countries. Watch and learn Mad will always be Mad.