Covid19, the airline industry. Where do we go from here?

a reply to: Zaphod58

Not arguing. I have no issue with helping businesses. I have nothing against them making a dollar flying people around in airplanes.

As long as that help comes with conditions. No CEO bonuses or stock buy backs. Payroll covered up to xx%. If a business is too far gone or structured too poorly, let it go into the sunset. It was not healthy anyway.

If the airline industry looks a lot different after the smoke has cleared, that is to be expected. There are a lot of industries which will look different. However, IMHO a possible change in the landscape is not sufficient reason enough to prompt throwing money down the hole to maintain some status quo.

Who knows, maybe a more robust and financially sound industry will emerge. Maybe this was needed. There are a lot of talented and motivated people out there who could do a great job. Regardless, the suck-o-meter will be on high for a while.

a reply to: thebozeian

I think this will be the excuse for legacy carriers to:

Dump pension obligations and debt and restart.

Dump old planes and get new ones (The MAX debacle means there will be a ton of brand new planes sitting without owners and it will be a buyers market

Emerging Airlines or ones that survive will be those that already had a pretty lean business model, or outright government support aka Flag Carriers

We will see much more of a Ryan Air / Southwest model (hard to believe they are almost a legacy carrier) even for long hual.

It will be years if at all global air traffic gets back to what it was pre COVID.

a reply to: FredT

Yeah well somehow confidence has to returned for people to resume flying around again, not to mention other industries like cruise ships, after being stuck on one for a few weeks or months is enough to cross that off the bucket list.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Yeah, I mean it may be till the end of the decade till we see people not freaking out over coughing on a plane and the economics will also keep traffic down. people will spend a few years simply recovering from a financial standpoint and any money spent on a vacation may stay local or in country for a while till people feel comfortable with their finances. Heck anybody with a 401K/403b will put the breaks on spending to shore up retirements. I'm down about 25% at this point

And Cruise ships, I never wanted to go before and this was the final nail. Yikes Ill bet many regretted saving a few hundi by getting that inner berth with no windows

As if flying isn’t the most uncomfortable process And experience to deal with from boarding to getting off the plane.....most of the unpleasantness being the other travelers....maybe airlines restructure to fly fewer times a day/week/month...provide better procedures for boarding and enforce a “no crowding the gate” policy among other things....charge more to get some comfort options back on a flight....all in all make it a better experience. Higher price cuts down on the number of folks who will fly. Fewer trips cuts costs but possibly gets a full plane. Enforce policy on the plane for folks to act civilized and not like they are in their own home. Dress to fly, not in your pajamas, leave your shoes on....I could go on with how entitled people think they are on planes.....this is turning into a rant. My apologies.

a reply to: FredT

I wasn't keen on them either, when I was younger got caught out on one of those ferrys that go between Calais and cover, it was scary and sealed my resolve to never be stuck out to sea In a tin can.

Oh well were in for the ride now, next stop whoknowswhereville.

a reply to: wdkirk

Yeah I grew up flying in the 70's when you still dressed up. Nowadays they are basically at best a Greyhound bus with wings or at worst some sort of cattle car.

My favorite these days is the ones that pay for the extra room and act as if they got a first class ticket

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Alien Abduct

They did suspend slot rules.

Starting up an airline is not an easy task, even if you are able to buy up existing aircraft. It makes far more sense to preserve the existing airlines than go through the long drawn out process of starting up new airlines and having a significant gap in capabilities, only to see them fail.

No need to start up new ones. There are literally airlines waiting to fill those spots, hence why the current airlines continue to fly empty...because they don't want competition to take their spots.

originally posted by: ABNARTY
a reply to: Zaphod58

Not arguing. I have no issue with helping businesses. I have nothing against them making a dollar flying people around in airplanes.

As long as that help comes with conditions. No CEO bonuses or stock buy backs. Payroll covered up to xx%. If a business is too far gone or structured too poorly, let it go into the sunset. It was not healthy anyway.

If the airline industry looks a lot different after the smoke has cleared, that is to be expected. There are a lot of industries which will look different. However, IMHO a possible change in the landscape is not sufficient reason enough to prompt throwing money down the hole to maintain some status quo.

Who knows, maybe a more robust and financially sound industry will emerge. Maybe this was needed. There are a lot of talented and motivated people out there who could do a great job. Regardless, the suck-o-meter will be on high for a while.

It’s a good job you are not in charge, you would be flying us head first into a major recession.

Covid virus clears and no one can go on holiday or travel for business because all the airlines are closed.

Hospitality business further impacted by lack of tourists.

Half the aircraft industry laid off.

Pension companies heavily invested in aircraft industry takes a further spanking....

I could go on but you get the point.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

The slot rules are suspended. They're continuing to fly mostly empty because they need to move the planes to places where it's cheaper to park them, or because they actually do have people still flying, even if it's only a few. It's not about competition as it is having routes to come back to. Even if they lost the slots, at this point, no airline in the US would even try to take them, because, depending on where the airport is, they're expensive as hell, and they can't throw that kind of money around. And when they start flying again, their credit rating is going to suck, and they won't be able to afford them then either.

If this goes on long enough there aren't going to be any competitors to take over. And if there are, we're going to end up with one or two airlines. There are three airlines I can think of off the top of my head that could get through this without assistance, and none of them are US based airlines. And one of the three is a "if they're careful and smart" they could get through it. This isn't a matter of mismanagement, as it is of being forced to accept massive losses. The IATA initial estimate was less than $100B in losses. On March 5th, it was $113B in losses. Today, it's at least $252B. Several airlines are rapidly closing on $1B, and they're still flying. Within a week or two, even domestic flying is probably going to be stopped outside cargo flights.

a reply to: Zaphod58
I'm expecting to get a stand down letter tomorrow. Apparently the first wave of stand downs was based on the following, "are they taking leave during the April school holidays? If yes, stand them down for the whole month". And I took a week in late April so that qualifies me for the initial stand down period. Its getting very eerie out there. I have never seen such a quiet airport. We are flying A380's for a few days from SYD to LHR via Darwin, that's a route I never expected to see. If I'm there when we ground about 40-50 aircraft locally I'll take some pics and post them up. Its not like I will have much else to do after other than home schooling my 7 year old.

a reply to: Forensick

It’s a good job you are not in charge, you would be flying us head first into a major recession.

Um...that's coming whether I am in charge or not. Bailing out the airline industry will not stop it.

Covid virus clears and no one can go on holiday or travel for business because all the airlines are closed.

My bad. In this time of crisis I overlooked folks wanting to fly to Tahiti for some sun and sand. I need to get my priorities straight.

Pension companies heavily invested in aircraft industry takes a further spanking....

Again, my apologies. I forgot the only businesses taking a hit right now are the airlines. I forgot investing was an assured thing. It always pays out. Never takes a dive.

I could go on but you get the point.

You got that right. No matter how many people die or how bad we gut the finances of the country, we need to stay focused on ensuring the airlines stay afloat. Because once we lose a Southwest or a United, there is no replacing them. No one will ever again figure out how to meet the demand of people wanting to get from A to B in an airplane.

a reply to: ABNARTY

No, we need to keep them afloat, because when the recovery comes it will help to have existing companies that aren't struggling to get their feet under them. If you follow this, several airlines are using their passenger aircraft to fly cargo around, and others have a strictly cargo component. Both are going to help now, and both will help later. A new company is going to start up with 5 or 6 routes and fly them for months before trying to expand. And that's in a good economy.

If you have companies that have 100+ routes already existing, they can step right back into those routes and fly cargo and people to areas that are taking longer to recover and help with their recovery immediately. A new airline would take time getting planes, getting clearances to operate, e.t.c.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Jeezus. Thanks for the info. I hope the American based airliners stay afloat because I just bought stock in the top 3. I'll be biting my nails for a while now.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

Currently, in addition to the few passenger flights operating, American and United are operating special cargo only flights using 777 and 787s. American has 4 a week to Germany and back from Dallas. United is planning 40 charter flights pulling cargo.

Just about everyone is looking at parking 2/3rds of their fleet minimum. Lufthansa has already parked somewhere around 700 of 763. Delta plans to park 600 of 910, unless they end up shutting down domestic passenger routes entirely.

a reply to: Zaphod58

OK. I give up. Bail them out. Time to buy low. Might as well recoup some of my tax money.

a reply to: ABNARTY

This is one of the few cases I support a bailout. This isn't mismanagement, or something the airlines did to cause it, and it's not that they're too big to fail, it's that they're too important to fail right now. If they tank any other time, let them. But right now, we need an air bridge too much.

We live in the DFW area & it's amazing how quiet it's been without all the air traffic. Is it bad that I'm kind of hoping it doesn't come back?

a reply to: PhantomTwo

I usually research the area before I buy Or move into a house.

Comparisons between February and March-

Feb-





March-