Proof that the COVID-19 Corona Virus is 20x Worse than the Common Flu? Please?

a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

You

China had a heavy hand response early on and are now almost completely recovered.

Is that a true statement?

China had a heavy hand response early on and are now almost completely recovered.

www.wsj.com...

WUHAN—It was on Dec. 10 that Wei Guixian, a seafood merchant in this city’s Hua’nan market, first started to feel sick. Thinking she was getting a cold, she walked to a small local clinic to get some treatment and then went back to work.

Eight days later, the 57-year-old was barely conscious in a hospital bed, one of the first suspected cases in a coronavirus epidemic that has paralyzed China and gripped the global economy.

Snip

Even after Chinese President Xi Jinping personally ordered officials to control the outbreak on Jan. 7, authorities kept denying it could spread between humans—something doctors had known was happening since late December—and went ahead with a Chinese Lunar New Year banquet involving tens of thousands of families in Wuhan.


Snip

He was also leading the response when authorities let some five million people leave Wuhan without screening, and when they waited until Jan. 20 to announce the virus was spreading between humans.

originally posted by: sunkuong
a reply to: ThinkingCap

After 12 months youll have better stats to compare to influenza or common colds.

Sheesh its only march. Who can say the long term impact with any great certainty.

The immediate impact indicates a higher incubation and transfer rate

How do you know it hasn’t been around a year? We just got the test.
Nobody can say, I believe that’s the point. And what immediate impact is that? A mortality rate based off of no test, flawed test and only testing the sickest?

a reply to: neutronflux
Yes thats true.

People were borded up in their homes with no warning based off official "suspicion of infection "

In a heavily populated country like China many broke protocols and were severely punished when caught.

Healthy people were lumped together with the sick in mandatory quarantine. All this once deniability was impossible...which they tried.

There was even a "US soldiers infected China" claim (false information) being peddled by China at first.

They hid this for months possibly. IMO that points to this NOT being a natural viral outbreak. Why hide the fact when SARS didnt have to be hidden?

This is the same Bill Gates foundation patented virus that was stolen from a Canadian disease research center by a Chinese researcher.

When this comes out, and it will once we arent contending with looming civil unrest, when it does pop there will be global scorn against China.

Maybe even unilateral war against it if China gets greedy and keeps buying up failing western utilities and corporations like they are doing now. Makes it all look planned from a practical perspective. Especially since they are recovering faster than some western countries affected by this.

You could argue that China had the foresight to risk mild danger and loss short term at home so as to fair better than the world and come out on top economically after the dust settled.

If it was your job to seek and alert others to potential enemies and their capabilities then that would be a logical train of thought to pursue.

originally posted by: HelloboysImbackguy
...
Its already nuts at hospitals here. We are starting to see how Italy's early days played out but at a faster rate which is not good. At all.

I sort of got the impression that the spread development (the daily increases in the statistic: "cases/1M pop" on worldometers.info) was more in line with that of France than Italy. And the fatality rate so far matches Switzerland but may display the pattern in Belgium from now on (slowly going up from 1.3% to 2.2% in the coming days). But I haven't watched it that closely and depends heavily on the amount of tests that will be done, more tests means more detected cases and thus a lower fatality rate. Higher fatality rates now may indicate more undetected cases, so in that sense the US may be better off than France was a week ago when their fatality rate was already higher than 2% and their cases/1M pop similar to where the US is now. That may indicate that the spread development will turn out to be lower than it was in France for the last week (again dependent on how many tests will be done if this will show up in the stats).

The tab that's needed on worldometers.info to make the best comparisons regarding spread development, woud be "deaths/1M pop" (and then keeping track of its day-to-day development). For sake of comparison assuming that the Corona virus is just as deadly in any country you are comparing, and that the difference in fatality rates correlate with number of tests and undetected cases (higher fatality rates suggesting higher number of undetected cases because of a lower number of efficient testing).

a reply to: whereislogic

I agree. We have a problem that we only know as far as the finite supply of test allow us to create a basis of comparison.

Hopefully with the new 45 minute tests coming out here we can have a much better turnaround of detected sick and successfully treated people.

If we are lucky we will be able to get our hospitals the things they need before they become ineffective.

If not we could be in big trouble.

a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

Sign.

Your original quote

China had a heavy hand response early on and are now almost completely recovered.

The virus Started around Dec 10.
Suspicious of a new virus started about eight days later.
Jan 7, China ignore the virus could be spread person to person. Wuhan Lunar festival attended by “ tens of thousands of families in Wuhan.“
Jan 20, China finally admits virus can spread person to person. “ authorities let some five million people leave Wuhan without screening”.

a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

Yes. I agree that China went into hyperdrive on the response because....

How It All Started: China’s Early Coronavirus Missteps
www.wsj.com...

They didn’t acknowledge the virus could be spread person to person for over a month.

a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

China really didn’t contain the virus, did they? World pandemic ring a bell?

a reply to: neutronflux

well to be fair, not alot was and kind of still unknown about this virus. kind of hard to contain something you dont know much about.

originally posted by: choos
a reply to: neutronflux

well to be fair, not alot was and kind of still unknown about this virus. kind of hard to contain something you dont know much about.

But it didn’t help that China hid the fact and was more worried about imagine than public health.


So no. China doses not get a pass. Especially when they started pushing another country planted the virus with no proof.

a reply to: neutronflux

not giving them a pass.. just saying that a new virus would be very very hard to contain..

a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

I just noticed that a better comparison with the way things are developing in the US is actually Sweden or Portugal, which have similar fatality rates and in terms of cases/1M pop seem to be only a few days ahead (3-5 days, now at around 200 whereas the US just passed 100; if I remember correctly the speed this number was increasing up to a 100 for these European countries was somewhat similar to the US).

That's actually a much slower spread development than France (my earlier comparison which I remember already had a higher fatality rate than 2% early on when they were still around a 100 cases/1M pop, and they got to a 100 a lot quicker as well I think). Too bad there are no day-by-day graphs for the cases/1M pop stat on worldometers.info.

We can now however do the calculation I did on page 5 for Italy in comparison with the US and flu deaths in the US, but then this time do it with a country that compares a bit better with the US (cause I have a number for the US for flu deaths for the 2019-2020 season from wiki, as explained on page 5). For this I'd pick Sweden. The only problem is that Corona is still also in its early stages in Sweden, so it's unclear how many deaths will follow in about a month of Corona spread development as I did previously with Italy where we do have those numbers after a month of Corona spreading in Italy. So first translate the number of deaths in Sweden to something that compares better with the US:

327.2 (pop US) / 10.12 (pop Sweden) * 25 (deaths in Sweden) = 808 (deaths in the US if the US follows the same trend as Sweden over the next 3-5 days, lowering its fatality rate about 0.1% because Sweden's is a little lower)

Now compared to US deaths related to the 2019-2020 seasonal flu which has been going on for almost 6 months mentioned as 20 - 52,000 on page 5 (numbers from wiki), that's not much yet, but remember, this is only projecting 3-5 days ahead from something that in comparison with where Sweden is now has lasted maybe only 20 days (from Sweden's perspective, for the US it started a bit more gradual and one could say it picked up more speed 14 - 17 days ago). So still difficult to predict where that number 808 will end up and how it will compare to the 2019-2020 seasonal flu in 2 months from now. Last years flu was reported to have killed 80,000 people in the US according to the CDC I think (might have been a different source). Will Corona end up there before the end of the year? As I mentioned on page 5, I think for Italy, Spain and perhaps France, Netherlands and maybe even Belgium (for which there will be a different number for flu related deaths), Corona will be more deadly than the flu this year. For most Asian countries (perhaps all), it will not. And for the US I'm not sure, it all depends on which trend the spread development will follow, that of Asian countries, or that of Europe?

originally posted by: whereislogic
a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

Last years flu was reported to have killed 80,000 people in the US according to the CDC I think (might have been a different source).

Oh, that number was from the 2017-2018 seasonal flu in the US, the source was indeed the CDC:

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

This source gives the number 61,200 for 2018-2019, last year's flu (article from 20 jun 2019):

2018-2019 Flu Season Was the Longest in 10 Years, CDC Says | Time

And I already gave the US number for 2019-2020 so far, which is a number that also comes from the CDC, early March: 20 - 52,000. But that one is still ongoing.