Proof that the COVID-19 Corona Virus is 20x Worse than the Common Flu? Please?

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Yo, what do the red and green colors represent?

a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

Thanks for the response, I remember you from back in the day, you put out good content.
But no, I'm really on the fence. I'm genuinely seeking information, no ulterior motive, not trying to prove some passive aggressive point by appearing ignorant.

Perhaps it's too early to tell, but it seems like this is more viral than the flu? Is this the cause for the global melt down?

originally posted by: Fallingdown
Call me Debbie Doubter but in China and South Korea new cases are on their way down .

According to worldmeters.

China’s peak one day high was 14,002 cases now they’re reporting zero . They’re reporting only 6500 active cases now.


South Korea’s peak was 851 new cases in a single day. Today they reported 93 cases .

It might just be me but that’s not how super spreader viruses act. No amount of disinfected and quarantine is going to have such an immediate effect . Especially when you’re dealing with something with RO high RO.

What you’re missing is that the transmission rate is not a constant. In the beginning of an epidemic, when everyone is just doing business as usual, there will be some transmission rate that is determined by the local conditions and will remain relatively constant until people start limiting how many people they come in contact with.

The transmission rate is the average number of people an infected person infects. If you live in the middle of Montana and only interact with 4 or 5 people per day you will have a much lower probability of transmitting an infection than if you live in Wuhan and interact with 50 people per day.

Right now, the transmission rate for the US is estimated at about 2.5. If I remember correctly, the transmission rate in China got as high as 5 before their severe social distancing program brought it down. The last time I looked, China’s transmission rate was quite a bit below 1, which is what you need to “bend the curve”, which is why China’s rate of new infections stopped growing and has plateaued.

In the absence of any effective medical treatments (cure or vaccine) social distancing is the only thing that’s,going to have an effect on slowing the epidemic.

originally posted by: choos

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan

originally posted by: ThinkingCap
a reply to: Alien Abduct

Thanks, I haven't checked those websites. I'm trying to find enough information to prove to my family that this is deadlier than the flu virus.

So you want your preconceived notions supported. You dont want truth or facts. Because thats out there.

Hint....its not. For example in the US COViD has a current mortality rate if 1.4%. Flu is 7.1% currently. So in the US the flu is 6 times more deadly.

probably wayy too early to judge mortality rate of this virus in the US..

Why? There is a sample size of 10k infected to pull from. 4 days ago that 1.4% was 1.7%, meanwhile the number of infected doubled (from 4.5 k to 10k).

Statistically speaking, I think we can at least look at the numbers for some guidance on mortality expectations.

The problem is the US is not China. We don't have a thick soup of chemicals to breathe which drives inflammation and makes infection and disease worse. We have really clean air comparitively, especially among our enormous rural areas/population.

I've said it since the first reports: Coronavirus will hit China hard, but not the west. Because we have decent air quality.

How about Africa...how's their air quality, you know...having hardly enough air pollution to speak of? How about their COVID infection/mortality rates?

I'd also suggest that among populations that use more tobacco we will see higher mortality for similar reasons.

a reply to: ThinkingCap

Just look up whats happening in italy and iran and show them that.

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
a reply to: carewemust

342???

CDC as of noon yesterday says there are 41 deaths in the US

I need to correct myself here...it was 150 as of noon yesterday. Im tracking this in a spreadsheet, and glanced at the wrong cell.

www.cdc.gov... us.html

originally posted by: ThinkingCap
a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Yo, what do the red and green colors represent?

Music..

The covid infection rate for people 20-44 is now 30%, accounting for 20% of hospitalizations- 12% of those being critical.
It is no longer an 'old people' disease. Will it start affecting younger and younger people?

Our two local hospitals have 8 ICU beds for 50,000 people.. What do we do when those are full and we have people waiting in line for respirators and supplies to treat them? There aren't enough supplies to keep our medical professionals safe, and we can't afford to lose them.

This disase is reported to be ten times more contagious than the flu, and appears to be mutating. Right now, that seems to be affecting younger and younger people. What if it mutates further and becomes even more deadly?

Sitting back with a 'wait and see' attitude could cause an astronomical loss of life. The cavalier attitude of so many people is spreading it even further and faster. It appears to be far more serious than most realize- or can accept.

a reply to: ThinkingCap

If they think its not far more deadly than influenza, they are either being purposefully obtuse, in denial, or are just don't understand basic math.

It's difficult to avoid knowing that influenza averages about a 0.1% kill rate of known cases, while Covid19 is somewhere between 1-3% of known cases in nations whose hospital capacity has not been overwhelmed (10-30x higher kill rate.)

That kill rate will skyrocket anywhere people in need of intensive care / respiratory therapy are squeezed out of access dye to overwhelming numbers. That, and the 10-30x flu rate (which one can't avoid knowing if one uses television, radio or internet), is why we are going to such great lengths to avoid this slamming the whole population all at once.

a reply to: neutronflux

Worldometer demographics

Covid19 deaths by Age, Sex, Pre-existing conditions as requested

a reply to: ThinkingCap

You'd get a lot of legitimate "proof" if your title were reversed, and asked for proof that the FLU is worse than COVID-19.

Influenza USA = 55,672 deaths. That's 4,639 a month, nationwide.

Source: www.cdc.gov... (page 6)

But Politicians are forcing shutting down much of the country, due to the MSM hype over a relatively few (300) Covid-19 deaths.

GO FIGURE...

a reply to: Mandroid7

America is broke and about to default and has printed so much currency that it is now worthless. Were it not for the military threat of invasion the petro-dollar would have crashed and burned a long time ago. (ie. Saddam's crime was flirting with selling Iraq oil in Euros threatening the petrodollar) Covid19 being used as cover before the collapse of financial infrastructure. War is often used to reset the balance along with austerity that the people accept as a consequence of the war. US has bombed/invaded over 32 distinct and separate bombing campaigns in 24 different countries between 1945 and 1999. the war with Iran will occur after the election (Iran's ally, Syria who could have threatened Israel with artillery no longer needs to be invaded and has been neutralized - Iron dome and Patriot missiles stop missiles not artillery). Of course, there are other serious matters like grand solar minimum occurring as well. Food production was hit pretty hard in the last two years. Massive droughts and flooding, rain destroying cereal crops in Canada and the US, 70% of Chinese pigs dying from disease, etc.

a reply to: ThinkingCap

Look at the numbers.

If you don't understand them, then just wait and see.

If you're alive next year, I'll explain it to you

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan

originally posted by: choos

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan

originally posted by: ThinkingCap
a reply to: Alien Abduct

Thanks, I haven't checked those websites. I'm trying to find enough information to prove to my family that this is deadlier than the flu virus.

So you want your preconceived notions supported. You dont want truth or facts. Because thats out there.

Hint....its not. For example in the US COViD has a current mortality rate if 1.4%. Flu is 7.1% currently. So in the US the flu is 6 times more deadly.

probably wayy too early to judge mortality rate of this virus in the US..

Why? There is a sample size of 10k infected to pull from. 4 days ago that 1.4% was 1.7%, meanwhile the number of infected doubled (from 4.5 k to 10k).

have all those 10k fully recovered? will they get worse? will they get better? at what stage are they at? we dont know enough about the entire process of the virus to make such calls.

some people have only shown mild symptoms for a few days only for it to get critical and die after a few more days after..
its still early to make calls on mortality rate in the US, give it time you could be right you could be wrong.

I've said it since the first reports: Coronavirus will hit China hard, but not the west. Because we have decent air quality.

arent you just assuming that air quality plays a huge role on severity? you could be right, but do we really know enough to judge this?

How about Africa...how's their air quality, you know...having hardly enough air pollution to speak of? How about their COVID infection/mortality rates?

I'd also suggest that among populations that use more tobacco we will see higher mortality for similar reasons.

mmm, china has a HUUUUGE population of smokers.. shouldnt their mortality rate be sky high?

originally posted by: carewemust

But Politicians are forcing shutting down much of the country, due to the MSM hype over a relatively few (300) Covid-19 deaths.

GO FIGURE...

dont think it is all mainstream hype.. from what we've seen the exponential increase comes in fast if you choose to do nothing..

Italy was also at a relatively few 329 cases on feb 26..

a reply to: 1947boomer

At this point the RO is unknown . My contention is that when dealing with a disease with a high RO the number of new cases should not fall .

How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)
The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.

WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]

Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].

Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

RO CV

For more comparison during the 2015 - 16 The transmission rate (RO) was 1.3% with vaccinations .

2015-16 Flu

a reply to: Mandroid7

People who are dead don't need jobs.
Livelyhood is for the living.
So let's try and keep those workers alive shall we?

a reply to: Mandroid7

They are trying to slow the rate of infection that's why. So that the sixty thousand that are going to get sick from this don't all get it in April.I




and why do these damn ads pop up in my post box every single time I try to reply????I
Something needs to be done about that.

a reply to: DaRAGE

Let's illustrate this on a basic level.
Let's say 10,000 get the flu. Ten people will die from that.
Use the same number of people only this time the disease is Coronavirus and the results are that between 200 and 400 will die.

That's not fear mongering.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

Fact Italy had the highest rated healthcare system in europe behind France who is number one.

Sorry ...