30 of 108 US deaths from one source: Lifecare of Kirkland WA

As of right now 3/18/20 30 of the 108 confirmed deaths in the US originate from a single source: Lifecare of Kirkland, WA, a nursing home, according to the CDC: Article is here. A constantly updated tabulation of worldwide Corona illnesses can be found here. To give you some perspective, influenza deaths (the "flu") in the US are hard to pin down, but the CDC estimates about 36,000 per year in the 90's, which is about 3,000 PER MONTH. Compare that to the total number so far of Corona of 108.

And for those of you fixated on potential exponential growth rates, pay particular attention to Spread Rate and Acceleration rate. Notice that China has leveled off. Of course, this assumes accurate reporting and it would be an understatement to suggest China cannot be trusted here.

a reply to: schuyler

Very interesting.

And Kirkland is the home of Costco.

The super paranoid are going to gobble this up....

On the bright side, maybe there will be more goods available, for the rest of us non-hoarders.

originally posted by: schuyler
As of right now 3/18/20 30 of the 108 confirmed deaths in the US originate from a single source: Lifecare of Kirkland, WA, a nursing home, according to the CDC: Article is here. A constantly updated tabulation of worldwide Corona illnesses can be found here. To give you some perspective, influenza deaths (the "flu") in the US are hard to pin down, but the CDC estimates about 36,000 per year in the 90's, which is about 3,000 PER MONTH. Compare that to the total number so far of Corona of 108.

And for those of you fixated on potential exponential growth rates, pay particular attention to Spread Rate and Acceleration rate. Notice that China has leveled off. Of course, this assumes accurate reporting and it would be an understatement to suggest China cannot be trusted here.

Interesting. It does lend some credence to it being more dangerous than normal flu though. I mean it killed 30 at one nursing home? Would the flu do that? Probably not...

a reply to: Edumakated

I mean it killed 30 at one nursing home? Would the flu do that?

Yes , yes it could .
And most likely has .

Done
Next

originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: Edumakated

I mean it killed 30 at one nursing home? Would the flu do that?

Yes , yes it could .
And most likely has .

Done
Next

I'm sure the flu has ravaged a nursing home of frail residents.

However, I'm sure if the flu killed 30 over the course of a week or two in one nursing home, it would have made the news at some point.

People die in nursing homes all the time, but 30?

This is the kind of information I've been looking for on it's potency.

a reply to: schuyler


NM statistics can be manipulated in other words give it time to actually see what happens. Hope your right but i doubt it. The response throughout the world doesn't care what politics we like in the USA nor our response.

The coronavirus being the same as the common flu is a massive false equivalency. It is more infectious and more lethal. More importantly there are few (if any) known and reliable courses of treatment.

To me at this stage "coronavirus is the same as the flu" is reaching Berlin 1945 levels of denialism.

Supposedly, that facility had some issues, so it may not have been the best run one out there with the healthiest residents.

originally posted by: Ohanka
The coronavirus being the same as the common flu is a massive false equivalency. It is more infectious and more lethal. More importantly there are few (if any) known and reliable courses of treatment.

Never said it was. My point really was more about how freaked out we are over 108 deaths when the flu takes almost twice that, in the US alone, PER DAY. Definitely not equivalent, that's for sure. And for that matter, stats such as the acceleration rate are probably (as if they know) not due to the virus, but to the reporting. Already we have people second-guessing deaths previously recorded as the flu saying it was "probably" (as if they know) early onset corona.

In terms of lethality we have similar problem. It was first reported in China as 3.4% and has since jumped to 3.9, so we had people jumping on how lethal it was. Turns out in the US it's half that. Yes, it's WAY MORE as a percentage than influenza, which is about .1% in the US, just that far more get it. The death rate for SARS (also a 'Corona Virus') exceeded 10% and the death rate for MERS was like 1/3rd, but FAR more lethal than Corona. So people like to scream, "It's twenty times more lethal than influenza," but they never say, "SARS is five times more lethal than Corona." Why? Likely because most people have forgotten about it since it is now largely contained. Still, there are over 1,000 case per year in the US alone.

a reply to: schuyler

A nursing home nearby me in Illinois now has a bunch of cases. Someone needs to figure out a better plan of action for nursing homes quickly.

What this says to me is that a worker was infected, probably this worker didn't have good personal sanitation practices, and passed the infection to all the old folks they tended.

That care home has had another 20 to 30 people died in the same time period as COVID-19 deaths due to other causes. We are talking really sick people there. 80+ have tested positive to COVID-19 with the 34 deaths, so they got to have 100s of people there needing care. It is estimated the virus was running unchecked for weeks before anyone had a clue.

The one death we have in our area so far was a gentleman in his '70s who was having a cardiac incident and died from that, but they were suspicious of other symptoms while treating him and tested him. He turned up positive. So was the cardiac incident something he was going to have or something brought on by the COVID-19?

Either way, no one else in the facility he was living in has so far shown symptoms.

a reply to: schuyler

This virus has touched my family and my Uncle was in Seattle, contracted the virus in the hospital, and died.
I want to relay a message from my cousin that he left on Facebook. It is long, but explains what was happening in Seattle up until my uncle died.

For a long time I believed that the hysteria about the corona virus was a bunch of BS. I still believe theres a lot of hysteria and BS out there, but after losing my dad to the virus I have changed my mind about the virus itself. First, let me say that if he had not contracted the virus we still would have lost him. Maybe not this month but most likely in the next few months. All covid19 did was accelerate the end. I’m sad that he’s gone but I’m taking comfort in the fact that he is no longer suffering. He was most definitely not happy the past few weeks. It was hard to watch him go downhill so fast.

Now we sit here and wonder where did he contract the virus? Well, with hindsight being 20/20 as we look back it had to have happened right after he got sent to Seattle. There was a patient in the room next door to him in the CCU that was having severe symptoms. We watched as the mans family came and went from his room. Dad was in the room next to that guy for a few days. They shared the same nurse, cna, food delivery folks, janitor, you get the picture. Then my dad was transferred to a different floor and about one or two days after that I heard from a reliable source that the entire CCU unit at the hospital was on lockdown because of a positive case of covid19. Now I don’t know for sure that is what happened but confidentiality laws or not, you hear things in a hospital. You see things happening and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the room where everyone all of a sudden starts gloving, gowning, face masking up when they enter might just be a bad place to visit. We did not witness these protocols being used until the last couple of days before my dad was transferred. Remember that this was very early in the outbreak. I think the original patient zero was still in the hospital in Everett. So Dad got transferred to a lower level of care, with fewer safely protocols and family was able to visit. Come and go, please was your hands or use sanitizer when you enter or leave the room. We thought nothing of it.

He got well enough to be transferred to a short term rehab facility and we were excited that he would be on the road to recovery! I believe he went to the SNF facility on a Monday. I got back to town and we went to visit him. He didn’t look so good and I got a little worried. He was having a hard time breathing and very lethargic. We stayed with him until he fell asleep and went to a hotel for the night. The next day was Friday, and we went back To see him. He could only sit on the edge of the bed with his head down. I knew he was in bad shape but the staff did not seem very concerned. (Bless their little hearts) I finally corralled a doctor and brought her in to his room. She did an assessment and called for an ambulance. He was sent to a hospital in federal way where he remained until he passed. Now the thing to remember is that he has had contact with countless healthcare workers during all of this. Nobody thought to test him for Covid19 and we were never contacted by anyone from any hospital or state agency about him possibly being close to or sharing hospital staff with the patient from the first hospital. My dad continued to get worse. We knew that it was going to be the end and started making preparations to get family down to Washington to say goodby. So right about then some random doctor comes by and asks if he had been tested for Covid19. No. He says well we need to test him. BOOM! automatic shutdown of visitors. We were shocked. None of us thought he had it, there were no real symptoms except he was developing a cough but with all of his other issues that was easy to write off. The hospital staff didn’t think he had it. His main doctors didn’t think he had it. All of us (hospital staff included) were upset with the one doctor who ordered the test. I wanted to yell at him, I wanted to hit him, I hated that doctor. He had stolen my chance to say goodbye to my dad. He had stolen that opportunity from my children, from all of my family. I couldn’t believe where I was in this situation. We waited for the results to come back, and waited, and waited. Meanwhile we are seething, this doctor made a mistake, there’s no way he has it, he stole precious time from us, and on, and on.

Finally I am granted permission to sit with my dad. The hospital is on lockdown, I check in, an asked a series of questions, sanitize my hands, and get to find his room unescorted through the hospital. Wandering around like a lost little boy with a runny nose and tears in his eyes. I find the ICU and walk in. Immediate one of the staff asks why I’m not wearing a mask. Uh, because nobody gave me one? I get a mask, gown, gloves, sanitize my hands and am allowed into his room. I ask if the test results are back, no, I am told. Through the plastic airlock, and there he is. He looked asleep, if it wasn’t for the tubes and # coming out of him I’d say he was taking a nap. I sit down, take his hand, and start to cry. I sit there for a few minutes and the nurse comes partway into the entrance, she’s on the outside of the airlock. She says, “I want you to know that we got the test results a minute ago and your dad is positive for Covid19” Gut punch time. Now what? Oh #, I need to get out of here. Oh my god, it all starts to make sense. Slowly, the progression starts to make sense. It’s taken a couple of days for the picture to become clear, the progression of his symptoms. Not being able to clear up, not being able to get better, doing so good that he’s discharged to a rehab facility and ten days later he’s dying.

I say my goodbyes, talk to the doctor, make the decision not to prolong life and he’s gone a few hours later. My dad is gone. I’ll never talk to him again. Never fish with him again. Never hear him ask me how the weather is where I’m at. That’s it. Show’s over folks.

*more*

a reply to: Darkblade71

I want people to know how easily methods of transmission can be missed. From the original hospital stay to his final day nobody considered Covid 19 a possibility. Not seriously anyway. But we were wrong in assuming that. Not only was he infected but it most likely happened very early after he came south. We went in and out of his room, many times, taking this virus to god knows how many places. It was missed, from doctors, to nurses, to family, we all missed it. He had so many underlying symptoms that easily explained away what was happening. It took a new doctor coming in from the outside who never looked at his chart to ask for the test. We never knew. Never really suspected. Didn’t know how easily it could be transmitted. We know now. My dad is now a statistic. My wife and I have been tested and are staying home. I can’t believe this is happening. It’s a nightmare. I think about how many possible times for transmission of this virus there have been. Too many to comprehend. The panic is ridiculous, the virus is real. Stay away from your elderly family and friends. This will kill them. If your on immunosuppressive drugs, (like I am)talk to your doctor about stopping them. Get outside in the sunshine, isolate yourself from others. Take your vitamins, STOP SMOKING YOU DUMBASS. Wash your hands, and be nice to people. This will get better. It’s touched my family in a very real way. I still believe the reaction in a lot of cases is worse than the disease but the safety protocols are a good idea. Do NOT think it won’t apply to you. Because it will sneak out of nowhere and f up your world. I love you all, thank you for the words of support over the last few days. Stay away from me.

I love you Uncle Pete, Good luck little Pete!

People, be aware!