How long will Americans allow themselves to be quarantined?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: tetra50

However, there is much not known.

Yes.
But that doesn't mean nothing is known. There is China to view as a model. South Korea. Europe. There isn't much reason to think the unimpeded progression of the disease would be very different in the US.

None of the modeling of China or South Korea or Europe is instructive as to reinfection or damage already done. The unimpeded progression of the disease being totally new as it's novel and there is reserach that indicates it could/may reoccur and what that may mean, as well.

Those who recover from corona may have reduced lung function, chinese scientists say

The Hong Kong Hospital Authority made the findings after studying the first wave of patients who were discharged from the hospital and had fully recovered from COVID-19.

Out of 12 people in the group, two to three saw changes in their lung capacity.

"They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," Owen Tsang Tak-yin, the medical director of the authority's Infectious Disease Centre, told a press conference Thursday, according to the South China Morning Post.

"Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung function" after full recovery, he said.

Tsang added, however, that patients can do cardiovascular exercises, like swimming, the improve their lung capacity over time.

While it's too early to establish long-term effects of the disease, scans of nine patients' lungs also "found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage," Tsang said, according to the Post.

Current coronavirus patients' CT scans show "ground glass," a phenomenon in which fluid builds up in lungs and presents itself as white patches, as Business Insider's Aria Bendix has reported. The scans below, taken from one coronavirus patient at different points in time, show that the person's "ground glass" became more pronounced as their illness progressed.

originally posted by: Liquesence
Just trying to understand the logic.

The best way to determine the severity of the problem is to get accurate statistics (good luck getting that from China) that compare apples to apples -- the coronavirus exposure / fatality rates with those of other significant flu outbreaks in the recent past. Because this one of the first where there was a reaction to this degree. Then if it turns out that it really wasn't any worse - or going to be any worse - than a normal flu season, this could be seen as a huge overreaction.

Unfortunately, the reaction was so big and fast (and ridiculous) that the numbers will now be skewed. Everybody will be praising the anti-bear rock:

"I have a rock in my pocket that keeps away bears."
"There are no bears around here."
"See how well it works!"

And anybody who questions the actions of the media or WHO or the government in this whole debacle is seen as a fool and probably in league with Satan or somebody even worse.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: tetra50

Well, we can't know everything, and let's be clear. No one gets out of life alive.

No, we can't. Thanks so much for stating the obvious.

I see, you really don't get what I'm saying. The question posed by this thread, specifically, was how long would Americans allow themselves to be quarantined.

Within that scope, I kind of think it's important that Americans, and all human beings, should know the truth about what's circulating, and what that may mean for everyone's life. And then make solid, stable choices, as much for is allowed dependent upon that info.

I think that's what's being discussed here. I never suggested anything you commented on there, above. take care, regardless. and wouldn't you want to know the truth about your future, before you decide to go against quarantine or not, at the very least?
tetra

a reply to: tetra50

What is your point exactly?

That we should just carry on like nothing is happening because we don't know everything about this disease? That, surely, it will be less virulent in the US because we smoke less?

a reply to: Phage

Not at all. That before we discuss how long we take being quarantined, that we accurately evaluate and weigh why we are being quarantined, what to do about that, what's worth the risk and what the friggn attendant risk really is.
I should think those parameters would be rather obvious before inciting anarchy.
regards,
tetra

a reply to: tetra50


That's pretty much what I said in my first post in this thread.

a reply to: Phage

so sorry. lol, that I didn't realize anything wise being evaluated was something you already would have stated, and that if you are on the same page, I am so poor at expressing myself, you didn't see the inherent point you already obviously agreed with.
tetra

originally posted by: CynConcepts
a reply to: MrParanoid

Just from a hypnosis/nlp perspective, after 3 weeks habits are formed and broken. Thus, most folks will settle in and accept the news. It is why they are knowingly holding back and attempting to slowly drip feed info. It reduces panic and chaos after 3 weeks psychologically for the majority.

they keep saying 10 days from now 10 days from now

a reply to: tetra50

Sorry. I misunderstood.

That before we discuss how long we take being quarantined, that we accurately evaluate and weigh why we are being quarantined,

So, do nothing. Wait and see what happens. I disagree with that approach.


Misunderstood again...disregard. This post.

I gotta get something to eat.

Americans will PEW PEW, government will bang bang boom boom back, and we'll have war in our streets for years. About half of the country doesn't seem to understand how pandemics work, and they will NOT stay home.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: tetra50

Sorry. I misunderstood.

That before we discuss how long we take being quarantined, that we accurately evaluate and weigh why we are being quarantined,

So, do nothing. Wait and see what happens. I disagree with that approach.

I disagree with do nothing and wait and see, as well. No where in what I've written would anyone get that.

We are talking disparate things, anyway, without more info, but: we are on a thread about how long americans are going to accept being quarantined. So, then, whatever we discuss DOING, seems to be in direct response to THAT ISSUE.

There are many things to do, but to do in terms of what and which: our being quarantined and a possible real disastrous outcome, or; 2) that our government is quarantining us, and it could be because of a)a bioweapon, planned economic, further enslavement collapse and rise or b)a real threat they know little about and we aren't prepared for, or c) some combination of other various theories.

LOLOL. So we're gonna discuss quarantine, without discussing all the reasons why we shouldn't accept it, or should?
Sorry, I thought that was the intent of the thread by its title.

I never, ever suggested doing nothing.
tetra

a reply to: tetra50

Sorry, I thought that was the intent of the thread by its title

Yeah. I figured that out. Sorry. Check the edits.

I'm hungry. That's my excuse and I'm sticking with it.

a reply to: tetra50

What I see you worrying about is a bunch of things that no one has any real proof of and wondering if we ought to remain quarantined out of fear of those things.

Until we know for certain otherwise, this is a disease like other diseases and it runs its normal course like other diseases.

Yeah, it's scary, but it's a novel strain, they tend to do things that people would swear they shouldn't be able to do based on what they are. Spanish Flu went hemorrhagic in some of its cases and tended to cause cyanosis so bad that patients turned a very dark blue. Those are symptoms not commonly associated with influenza, but this certain strain caused it at that point in time.

None of that means any of the strangeness we see will linger beyond this one outbreak though.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: tetra50

What I see you worrying about is a bunch of things that no one has any real proof of and wondering if we ought to remain quarantined out of fear of those things.

Until we know for certain otherwise, this is a disease like other diseases and it runs its normal course like other diseases.

Yeah, it's scary, but it's a novel strain, they tend to do things that people would swear they shouldn't be able to do based on what they are. Spanish Flu went hemorrhagic in some of its cases and tended to cause cyanosis so bad that patients turned a very dark blue. Those are symptoms not commonly associated with influenza, but this certain strain caused it at that point in time.

None of that means any of the strangeness we see will linger beyond this one outbreak though.

Sorry, I still don't see that you see what I'm worrying about. The THREAD is HOW LONG WILL AMERICANS DEAL WITH BEING QUARANTINED......read: how long will folks take infringement on their right to assemble, move about freely, have constitution disallowed.

Perhaps you simply don't see that title as dangerous as I see it. This, in fact, is the real danger. But the other danger, attendant and aggregate of that, is when people think they don't have real information, which breeds disinformation, and disbelieve in ANY information.

And all of that breeds total anarchy. Please stay with me, here. Yeah, obviously, a lot of what I've posted isn't yet known, as it's novel. Though we do have research papers that give us some clues. People need to feel they are fully informed, so as to make their own choices, or rebel against the choices taken from them.

See how that works?
I've read everything you've written in the Updates threads, and appreciate and welcome your info and tenacity in supplying it.

Right now, we are dealing with another animal: that unloosed by people fomenting or considering total anarchy. It is important, whether you believe it's a bioweapon, or whether you go the other end of the spectrum and think it's a total lie, that we make informed decisions for ourselves, and loved ones, and for God's sake the rest of us that will suffer for others' decisions attendant to that.....

It's important people distance, take it seriously, and just stay awake and informed.
be well,
tetra

I'm more concerned with those living paycheck to paycheck and who may have been laid off or had hours cut, or businesses closed (such as retailers), and with little to no savings...

This a reason I conceal carry.

a reply to: tetra50

I already answered that. I think the ones with the least patience will be those who aren't able to earn anything during the time at home.

I think they'll be lucky to get people to sit it out for 28 days tops, but if people are dying at high rates in an area, they'll get longer from folks.

People who are in a more secure position and can work from home will be likely to tolerate it longer.

originally posted by: Liquesence
I'm more concerned with those living paycheck to paycheck and who may have been laid off or had hours cut, or businesses closed (such as retailers), and with little to no savings...

This a reason I conceal carry.

Yes desperate people will resort to desperate measures to take care of their families.

I will....

originally posted by: Phage
The point of the "quarantine" (which it isn't) is not to wait out the disease until it "just goes away" or a vaccine is available. The point is to reduce the rate at which new infections occur in order to reduce the load on health care facilities. Right now it is not known just how rapidly it will spread in the US but rather than just ignore what has happened elsewhere and to wait to see what happens with no action being taken, reducing contact is a rational approach. The trouble is, people don't seem to want to that voluntarily. Too many seem think "It's just old people", while ignoring or not understanding epidemiology.

There isn't going to be an "all clear" for many, many months and many people will become infected no matter what is done. But if the rate of infection can be kept down in these early stages it will reduce the "peak" of cases requiring intensive care, which, modelling shows, would occur in June.

www.imperial.ac.uk...


How long will people put up with it? I think that depends on whether or not the models pan out. If the curve stays flat, people won't put up with it. If it doesn't, they might be more inclined to do so. I think it's worth giving it a chance.

Thanks for the information...will be sharing this with family members.

Personally, anything longer than 4 weeks total quarantine my family is going need some assistance if for no other reason in our industry sales will take time to ramp back up we will lose some businesses because of this, and I'd imagine there is gonna be a reluctance to buy as much product as they used to. I would think most others are in the same position.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: tetra50

I already answered that. I think the ones with the least patience will be those who aren't able to earn anything during the time at home.

I think they'll be lucky to get people to sit it out for 28 days tops, but if people are dying at high rates in an area, they'll get longer from folks.

People who are in a more secure position and can work from home will be likely to tolerate it longer.

I never asked you a question to answer, nor do I think this thread really did, either.

But whatever. however you wanna see it, or argue with.

I intimated and explained to you it isn't about patience and who works or has money, just.
It's also about people trusting what they've been told. Do you really think all those kids would be on the beach during Spring Break in Florida if they had heeded anything they've been told in press conferences the last two days? And then the question is why don't they heed those warnings? You and I have been on lots of threads since their inceptions, and see the wide array of folks and how they perceive this, and also have researched and know enough of how and why it's real and both has been perceived the way it has. These are vastly different issues.

Questioning in threads here, and suggesting that there should be a limit to dealing with lack of constitutional aspects....which I will repeat, yet again, for they are so very important the right to move about freely. the right to congregate. the right in free speech, to both congregate and protest.....the right vis a vis the National Defense Production Act to get access to minimal needs products for survival, which has now just been suspended, though Trump balked at that initially.....

I don't think you are really getting the import of what is currently going down, and the possible reflex to it. There is a place and time to coordinate and react, but none of us can judge that if we aren't fully informed, as to the risk, and as to what is going down that is either to protect us, and suppress us.

These are very important times.
tetra

According to this article the quarantine efforts we are taking will have to be sustained longer than a few weeks and than will have to be started again after summer.

www.weforum.org...

The scientists said: "Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required."

Around three weeks after the combined interventions are introduced, the scientists predict there would be a reduction in the peak need for intensive care beds - and this would continue to decline while the policies stay in place.

However, once the interventions are relaxed (around September in the above chart), the infections would begin to rise again, leading to a predicted peak epidemic later in the year.