With 99.8 percent of USA Covid-19 Cases Not Needing Hospitalization...

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

How many New York state residents need to contract Covid-19, to fill the 37,000 ICU beds that Governor Andrew Cuomo says he needs?

Cuomo Wants US Army to Build Hospitals in New York ASAP: www.forbes.com...

Also, a doctor who's regularly on CNN, says it's likely that the available 200,000 ICU beds America has available nationwide, won't be enough when the same Covid-19 "wave" that's putting huge numbers of Italian citizens in Italy's hospitals, washes over America in the next 14 days.

How many people in America would need to contract CoronaVirus-19, in order to fill 200,000 ICU beds, assuming 99.8% of all cases are "mild"?

Note: The stats of 99.5% - 99.8% of U.S. Covid-19 cases being MILD enough to not require hospitalization, has stayed constant for many weeks.

Current USA Covid-19 Statistics (Updated Hourly): www.worldometers.info...

-CareWeMust

originally posted by: carewemust
Wednesday, March 18, 2020

How many New York state residents need to contract Covid-19, to fill the 37,000 ICU beds that Governor Andrew Cuomo says he needs?

Cuomo Wants US Army to Build Hospitals in New York ASAP: www.forbes.com...

Also, a doctor who's regularly on CNN, says it's likely that the available 200,000 ICU beds America has available nationwide, won't be enough when the same Covid-19 "wave" that's putting huge numbers of Italian citizens in Italy's hospitals, washes over America in the next 14 days.

How many people in America would need to contract CoronaVirus-19, in order to fill 200,000 ICU beds, assuming 99.8% of all cases are "mild"?

Note: The stats of 99.5% - 99.8% of U.S. Covid-19 cases being MILD enough to not require hospitalization, has stayed constant for many weeks.

Current USA Covid-19 Statistics (Updated Hourly): www.worldometers.info...

-CareWeMust

Most rational people want to hedge their bets if not for their family than for friends.

a reply to: carewemust

It doesn't depend of current statistics. Even if you get mild symptoms, you still can spread it to other people.

Don't go by numbers, we're talking about human beings.

a reply to: Trueman

There is still a calculation to arrive at how many must contract Covid-19 to fill X number of ICU beds, based on a .02% of the population contracting the disease to be sick enough to require hospitalization. What is the formula?

originally posted by: carewemust
Current USA Covid-19 Statistics (Updated Hourly): www.worldometers.info...

Lies, damned lies and statistics. Everyone's a statistician. Taking a snapshot to draw a conclusion that 99.8% of Covid-19 cases don't lead to hospitalisation is fraught with poor assumptions, if indeed that's what you did. Not sure where you got that figure from.

The current view is that 2-3% of people who catch Covid-19 will die, and that a good percentage (up to 30%) will be hospitalised or require ventilator support. While people may survive, they may be left with permanent lung damage.

It's right for the authorities to prepare their healthcare systems for the worst.

To th OP. Let's hope you don't learn the hard way that your assumption is wrong.

a reply to: carewemust

How many people in America would need to contract CoronaVirus-19, in order to fill 200,000 ICU beds, assuming 99.8% of all cases are "mild"?

I don't see an answer so I assume you're asking. The answer is 100 million (0.002*100000000=200000). What I find interesting about the stats listed on that page is that the death rate is around 1.8% (116/6524=0.01778) but the stats for the active cases is very different, the serious cases only account for 0.2% and 99.8% of the cases are mild (12/6302=0.0019). So how do you get those death rates if the number of serious cases is so small? This would suggest one of two things, either the death rates are being overestimated, which seems probable based on the number of people saying they are being turned away when they ask for testing, presumably because they have an insufficient number of test kits available, but they always record when someone dies.

The other possibility is that the first wave of infections will kill the most sick people, which seems to be exactly what happened in Italy. The vast majority of people who died had underlying health issues such as heart disease and cancer, and the average age of Covid-19 victims is about 80 in Italy. It's likely that both of these factors are compounding to produce a death rate which is overestimated in the early stages of the outbreak. In any case it's highly unlikely 100 million people would be infected simultaneously even without any sort of quarantines or social distancing protocols. It's very obvious at this point the fear by governments is driven by something the public is unaware of, they simply wouldn't risk this sort of economic damage otherwise.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

You're right...100 Million with CoronaVirus-19 in America before a treatment/vaccine is produced, is very unlikely.

It is obvious why the U.S. mainstream media, Democrat leaders, and the NBA all freaked out when fewer than 70 people had died over the past 2 months in the USA.

They know the human carnage in China/Italy is something that is NOT destined to come to America, due to early border closures, but want to hurt President Trump's re-election chances by damaging the economy.

It won't work, but they failed with the first 3 attempts. So try try again.

a reply to: paraphi
My state says out of 168 CoronaVirus Cases, only 11 required hospitalization. 4 of those 11 have already been discharged. Only 1 has died. This is over a two month period of time, mind you.

More people went to the hospital, and also died, from the common Flu over the past two months.

As is always the case, you, and each of us, are free to believe whatever we want to believe. I hope you're satisfied with your view of life. I am.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Based on that formula it looks like Cuomo is expecting 20,000,000 people in NY to get infected:

40,000 icu beds (37,000 new beds + 3,000 existing beds) / .002 = 20,000,000

Total NY metro population seems to be between 20-23 million. Source. Seems a little bit overkill but who knows. I grew up in Brooklyn and lived in Metro NY my whole life. We just moved West last year. They can’t even repair a bridge in less than 10 years. 😂 No wonder why they asked the Army to do it.

But in all seriousness I still have family and friends there that I’m praying for 🙏🏼

a reply to: paraphi

You

The current view is that 2-3% of people who catch Covid-19 will die, and that a good percentage (up to 30%) will be hospitalised or require ventilator support. While people may survive, they may be left with permanent lung damage.

Show how that is reflected in the current numbers relating to the USA spread.

There where many factors contributing to the Chinese mortality rate. Worse pollution, their food supply is not as well regulated for example.

If most cases of the Coronavirus go undetected, then then the mortality rate is even lower than the current stats of 6524 USA reported infections and 116 deaths.

Show where there is an abnormally high mortality rate this flu season from infectious disease even if you lump in Coronavirus.

a reply to: IWant2Believe323

THAT FORMULA is what I was seeking. Thank-you IWant2Believe323!!

See: www.worldometers.info... With most of New York's 1708 cases being classified as "mild", don't let yourself be worried about family/friends in New York. But prayer is always a good thing, 100% of the time.

a reply to: carewemust

Sign they are desperate.... they are useing celebrities to push the virus. Oh yeah.... lots of credibility there LOL. Thats a big sign we are being played. Crisis actors are now Oscar Winning A listers. These people are so out of touch they think they are still in the 80s when people actually thought some actors were good people.

Boy it would just be heartbreaking if some spoiled pedophile open marriage celebrities died. My heart weeps for Anti American Communist Tom Hanks and his swinger slut wife. Thats what happens when you lay down with swingers... you catch viruses.

What I am really worried about is Steven Spielbergs daughter future career in porn. I hope this virus does not effect her goals to stardom and success. I will pray for her. Great parenting Spielberg. Nice to know that you had such an impact on most of Americas youth while youth were a focussed family man Spending that "quality time" with your daughter.

Americans dont fall for it any more and you cant put the toothpaste back in the tube. There will not be any going back to the old days. These globalist illuminati are a bunch of old fools playing an old game useing innefective tactics. They can kill us off but they will never win back the hearts and minds of the people. They have lost and they know it. We will survive their scorched earth plans and America will be great again.

a reply to: carewemust

Whoops I bungled it. It’s actually # of beds / the hospitalization rate so

40,000 / .002 = 20,000,000

I fixed my post. Sorry! But you’re welcome!

a reply to: neutronflux

What's crazy is when I hear "experts" say, to get the hospital numbers up, we need more Covid-19 testing.

Do you or I need a test to determine if we are sick enough to go to the hospital???

Maybe those pin-heads with advance degrees really believe what they're saying? I'd rather believe that, than to think they're just treating the audiences as dumb sheep, who believe whatever lie they're peddling that day.

a reply to: carewemust

Are you trying to convince us or yourself...

a reply to: carewemust

Here in Belgium the number of confirmed cases was at 1243 yesterday, and the number of Corona patients in hospital was 361..

That's real life numbers for you. More than 25%...

Also, don't assume that it's only the elderly who struggle with this virus. There are 30-year-olds with no medical history in intensive care.

soulwaxer

a reply to: carewemust

I agree. People should only be seeking medical attention if they need it. That is supposed to free up resources for the people that are truly in a life or death situation.

I don’t get they want to close everything so people don’t congregate? But they want people who think they have the virus to congregate with other people who think they might have the virus for concentrated centers for testing? If one “tester” has “stealth” Coronavirus, how many people would end up being infected?

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: neutronflux

What's crazy is when I hear "experts" say, to get the hospital numbers up, we need more Covid-19 testing.

Do you or I need a test to determine if we are sick enough to go to the hospital???

Maybe those pin-heads with advance degrees really believe what they're saying? I'd rather believe that, than to think they're just treating the audiences as dumb sheep, who believe whatever lie they're peddling that day.

Emergency workers here are saying that some patients WALK in on their own, thinking they are well on time for quick treatment and release, but when de doctors see the scans of their lungs, it looks like mayhem, like they've never seen before.

soulwaxer

originally posted by: soulwaxer
a reply to: carewemust

Here in Belgium the number of confirmed cases was at 1243 yesterday, and the number of Corona patients in hospital was 361..

That's real life numbers for you. More than 25%...

Also, don't assume that it's only the elderly who struggle with this virus. There are 30-year-olds with no medical history in intensive care.

soulwaxer

It is not. Cause the majority of the people with Coronavirus are “stealth” cases.

originally posted by: soulwaxer

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: neutronflux

What's crazy is when I hear "experts" say, to get the hospital numbers up, we need more Covid-19 testing.

Do you or I need a test to determine if we are sick enough to go to the hospital???

Maybe those pin-heads with advance degrees really believe what they're saying? I'd rather believe that, than to think they're just treating the audiences as dumb sheep, who believe whatever lie they're peddling that day.

Emergency workers here are saying that some patients WALK in on their own, thinking they are well on time for quick treatment and release, but when de doctors see the scans of their lungs, it looks like mayhem, like they've never seen before.

soulwaxer

Please quote and cite actual person / source? Compared to pneumonia?

Or, you know. Doom by innuendo?