If millions don't die, that's great.
But you have a few facts wrong - this is going to last longer than three weeks. I would check where the death count is in June or July. Millions are
certainly not going to die in the next three weeks.
We expect up to 70% of the U.S. population will get infected over the next year. With a 3.5% death rate, that is over 2% of the U.S. population dying.
So that's an upper estimate of around 6 million deaths or something. Which would get a lot worse without lockdowns, as hospitals would get overrun
since the curve would not be flattened.
In three weeks, the exponential curve will still just be getting started. I would wait until June without lockdowns or July with lockdowns to see a
peak. Cases are growing by a factor of 10 about once every 14 days. This means that once we reach a million cases, there will be another 9 million
cases in the next two weeks alone, and then 90 million in the two weeks after that.
This is going to be one of those situations where conservatives who are in denial are going to be forced to wake up at some point or risk their own
health. Although I'm not sure, they might make more excuses all along the way to keep from seeing reality. Even so, I believe I can count on
conservatives to act somewhat rationally when their OWN lives are on the line. In other words, once the virus threatens them, which it will, I'm sure
many will agree with the harsh measures taking place regarding social distancing.
I believe some conservatives have trouble having empathy for others and realizing that others do, in fact, exist as human beings on this planet with
legitimate perspectives. So, in order for them to take an issue seriously, they have to experience a personal emotional event that shows THEM how a
situation affects THEM.
Luckily, there are a whole lot of those ready to be handed out.
Do I like the idea of enforced lockdowns? No way! But it is a good idea to do social distancing, and maybe it can be implemented in a way that still
gives us some freedom. What I don't like is misinformation being spread about how this virus is "just the flu." I've been doing research (looking at
raw data, reading scientific reports) as opposed to listening to politicians regarding this issue.
Politicians and other emotional folk are going to have an opinion of the virus' lethality not based on facts, but based on what would be convenient
for them, if true. So you can't listen to these folks! Of course, it would be convenient for Trump supporters if the virus was not a big deal! So they
believe this, instead of basing their views on scientific data, they base them on emotions and what would be convenient for them.
In Italy, it is politically advantageous for conservatives to be scared about the virus and liberals to downplay it! You have to analyze the virus
mathematically, politicians and emotional folk are not going to give you an accurate idea of its veracity.
edit on 17amTue, 17 Mar 2020
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