The Mathematical Spread of COVID 19 Explained In Video Form...

originally posted by: silo13
a reply to: Gothmog

Do you know what exponential growth means? Take a listen to this vid - it explains just how this virus is going to spread and the ramifications on heath care and more.

Stay well!

Do you know what exponential growth means?

I do not think you do.
Especially in context.
So far , not even close to the average flu season at this same time of year .
Get it?
Got it ?
Good.

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Gothmog

Get it ?

I don't have it yet, but it is in a neighboring county, so I am thinking I might have in two weeks.

Not any more of a chance than the common flu .
And , from all the records (except YouTube videos) , less of a chance.
Except . maybe , if one is from China.

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Gothmog

Get it ?

I don't have it yet, but it is in a neighboring county, so I am thinking I might have in two weeks.

Not any more of a chance than the common flu .
And , from all the records (except YouTube videos) , less of a chance.
Except . maybe , if one is from China.

I haven't really had the flu in about 50 years and never had a flu vaccine... so if I get this stuff, I am going to be a little miffed.

Get it?

originally posted by: butcherguy

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Gothmog

Get it ?

I don't have it yet, but it is in a neighboring county, so I am thinking I might have in two weeks.

Not any more of a chance than the common flu .
And , from all the records (except YouTube videos) , less of a chance.
Except . maybe , if one is from China.

I haven't really had the flu in about 50 years and never had a flu vaccine... so if I get this stuff, I am going to be a little miffed.

Why be miffed ? You have beaten the odds for some time now .
Let's hope you hold down that winning streak.

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: butcherguy

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Gothmog

Get it ?

I don't have it yet, but it is in a neighboring county, so I am thinking I might have in two weeks.

Not any more of a chance than the common flu .
And , from all the records (except YouTube videos) , less of a chance.
Except . maybe , if one is from China.

I haven't really had the flu in about 50 years and never had a flu vaccine... so if I get this stuff, I am going to be a little miffed.

Why be miffed ? You have beaten the odds for some time now .
Let's hope you hold down that winning streak.

Because you are telling me that I have a smaller chance of getting it than the flu.

originally posted by: butcherguy

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: butcherguy

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Gothmog

Get it ?

I don't have it yet, but it is in a neighboring county, so I am thinking I might have in two weeks.

Not any more of a chance than the common flu .
And , from all the records (except YouTube videos) , less of a chance.
Except . maybe , if one is from China.

I haven't really had the flu in about 50 years and never had a flu vaccine... so if I get this stuff, I am going to be a little miffed.

Why be miffed ? You have beaten the odds for some time now .
Let's hope you hold down that winning streak.

Because you are telling me that I have a smaller chance of getting it than the flu.

Yet , there is that probability .
There is a probability that I could win the lottery without ever paying for a ticket.
I said , you had beaten the odds for some time now...
After all , the thread title is...

The Mathematical Spread of COVID 19

Bold by me for subject matter....

Do those numbers include the hoax news story of 200 quarantined in Georgia ?
When they were actually only 2 suspected cases...

Suspected

sus·pect verb past tense: suspected; past participle: suspected /səˈspekt/
1. have an idea or impression of the existence, presence, or truth of (something) without certain proof.
2.doubt the genuineness or truth of.

Def by Google

For those struggling with math, here is a audio version:

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

Im going to eat some crow here:
We have a very close family friend here in S.Oregon, whose very healthy uncle (60) came home early last week from Disney Land Anaheim, feeling ill.

I cancelled my trip to the New Hope Health EXPO across the street for the same time.

My friends uncle, came home Friday and passed away from pneumonia Saturday. He was perfectly healthy...

Heres the thing, there was no time for anyone to even attempt to treat him. So all my big talk was pretty worthless in this poor mans case.

Get preventative, drop dose your herbs prior symptoms. Take NAC, sage is very drying of fluids in the body.

Lomatium, Osha and Lobelia are very powerful herbs that I am using with my family.

I hope this doesnt hit home with any of you folks.

a reply to: Gothmog

Do you ever use sources for anything you say...

...or do you simply talk out your ass constantly?

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo
a reply to: Gothmog

Do you ever use sources for anything you say...

...or do you simply talk out your ass constantly?

originally posted by: Gothmog
Jut like any other new virus...
Every
Single
Time
Before.

Thanks for the heads-up! You saved me 8 minutes.

There is way too many variables the math might work in optimum conditions, but we get an early spring heat here that will knock it back supposedly. Also, depends on which strain is loose in your community I suspect Italy got the nasty one. Hell if you used the math model from the beginning it can't pick up who actually has been tested or predict all those numbers are gonna get dumped there in one day. Get into the homeless community it could run rampant, get somewhere warm it dies down. Just like MERS AND SARS AND BIRD FLU AND SWINE FLU.

Double your fun

a reply to: kloejen

you know, if that guy did a similar video counting people getting a flu and sound of the dead people, that sound will deafen you and the DOW will hit zero in no time.

the strange thing in this whole situation is that I see numbers of infected and numbers of dead people without any mentioning of the age of those who died, im pretty sure that more than 90% of them would be those who are over 70.

a reply to: Dr UAE

Glad to know you're the type of person that puts a value on a human life based on age.

What does it matter what age are dying... Humans are suffering... Age is irrelevant...

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: all2human

Right.

Covid-19 is just getting started. My prediction is 8 million dead in the U.S. and a total of approximately 350 million dead world wide.

On what did you base that prediction ?
Certainly not a YouTube video , I hope

Some experts say covid-19 can spread to 60-80% of the worlds population.
CBS NEWS

The U.S. population is 330 million.

70% of the U.S. population = 231 million people. The current mortality rate is 3.5% and rising. source 3.5% of 231 million equals 8,085,000 people dead.

The current world population is 7.6 BILLION people.

70% of 7.6 billion = 5,320,000,000. I predict that many underdeveloped countries will be overwhelmed by this disease and so therefore the mortality rate will increase in those countries bringing the world average up to at least 6.5%.

6.5% of 5,320,000,000 = 346 million.

This could technically happen and it is possible. Then again perhaps the governments of the world might implement quarantine measures in time and we can mitigate the impact. So far they are mostly on a reactive stance as opposed to a proactive one. So as I see it my prediction stands unless we get a proactive attitude soon.

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

where the hell did you get that impression from?
are you always thinking in a negative way like this?

I was just wondering why there isn't any statistics to give people some prospective, if it only affect those who are over 70 in a severe way then that will calm people down a little bit and only care about older people rather than quarantine a whole nation thats all dude calm down.

sheesh no one can ask a question these days

originally posted by: all2human


Give it a few weeks
it's going to go huge, big numbers
up to 2O day incubation , spread asymptomatically
little to no testing in the USA to date
Assuming one lives in a western nation
If the Virus doesn't bother you,the toilet paper will.
No difference between the willful spread of this disease and the lack of concern for it in my opinion
This is more than the Flu, it took down the second largest economy,and Japan is grinding to a halt
And this is not even close to being over
www.youtube.com...

If you read my first post I said "Of course I limit exposure as much as I can".... How is that any different than what you do? I'm just not concern over it all, I don't even want to get the typical flu either, but I'm not going to wall myself in my house for a month or two.

In the 2018 -2019 flu season 60 million caught it with 600k hospitalized. Out of that 600k about 60k died (10%), so for cases where it gets to the point of needing to be hospitalized the lethality is rather high.

With Cov19 it started out as a 1 to 5.5 transmission ratio in China, but it looks to be dropping off to a 1 to 2.6 ratio that is inline with the normal flu. The difference so far is it looks to be higher lethality for older people/other medical conditions, BUT much lower with healthy people to include almost nothing for younger people.

So what does your model look like over the next 2 months?

originally posted by: Gothmog

Why be miffed ? You have beaten the odds for some time now .
Let's hope you hold down that winning streak.

No super human feat here, he most likely is in the position where he is not around a lot of people and isn't traveling much.