The Mathematical Spread of COVID 19 Explained In Video Form...

This guy did an amazing job summarizing what many have been trying to get across.

Jut like any other new virus...
Every
Single
Time
Before.

originally posted by: Gothmog
Jut like any other new virus...
Every
Single
Time
Before.

I wonder if they also factor in the tools we have to work with today compared to the earlier 20th century tools with the flu that killed over 400,000?

Has our knowledge and tools to deal with these epidemics progressed in an exponential way? Shortening the time for these epidemics to reach the Inflection point. Maybe not exponentially, but greatly increased none the less.

originally posted by: highvein

originally posted by: Gothmog
Jut like any other new virus...
Every
Single
Time
Before.

I wonder if they also factor in the tools we have to work with today compared to the earlier 20th century tools with the flu that killed over 400,000?

Has our knowledge and tools to deal with these epidemics progressed in an exponential way? Shortening the time for these epidemics to reach the Inflection point. Maybe not exponentially, but greatly increased none the less.

It's just using current numbers based on daily documented infection rates. It's naturally taking into account our technological advances. That graph is real-time...

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

When you do you think it will reach the inflection point?

originally posted by: highvein
a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

When you do you think it will reach the inflection point?

When people take it seriously...

originally posted by: highvein
a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

When you do you think it will reach the inflection point?

To give you a more precise answer you are going to have to put up with some high level math with me, but suffice to say that the earliest we are going to hit a 1.0 point at the inflection point considering we are already at 105,000 cases and a current factor of 1.15 per day...

...you're going to see at least 5,000,000 cases before it starts a negative...

And that's if we were taking it seriously *now*...

Then you have people like me... healthy and so don't care...Of course I limit exposure as much as I can, but I really don't see this much different than any other flu season.

a reply to: Xtrozero
An asymptomatic carrier out in the wild is the worst possible scenario.

Attitudes like this will just extend the scenario...

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo

An asymptomatic carrier out in the wild is the worst possible scenario.

Attitudes like this will just extend the scenario...

Like any other flu season? Do you shut yourself in your house from Oct To Mar each year?

a reply to: Xtrozero


Give it a few weeks
it's going to go huge, big numbers
up to 2O day incubation , spread asymptomatically
little to no testing in the USA to date
Assuming one lives in a western nation
If the Virus doesn't bother you,the toilet paper will.
No difference between the willful spread of this disease and the lack of concern for it in my opinion
This is more than the Flu, it took down the second largest economy,and Japan is grinding to a halt
And this is not even close to being over
www.youtube.com...

a reply to: all2human

No, he gets it. Denial is a step to acceptance.

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo

originally posted by: highvein
a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

When you do you think it will reach the inflection point?

To give you a more precise answer you are going to have to put up with some high level math with me, but suffice to say that the earliest we are going to hit a 1.0 point at the inflection point considering we are already at 105,000 cases and a current factor of 1.15 per day...

...you're going to see at least 5,000,000 cases before it starts a negative...

And that's if we were taking it seriously *now*...

we are already at 105,000

Depends on who "we" is.
2018 - 2019 brought 35.5 million symptomatic cases of the flu in the US alone.

Denying Ignorance.
Why ?
The fear mongering over this thing is getting a bit old.

a reply to: all2human

Right.

Covid-19 is just getting started. My prediction is 8 million dead in the U.S. and a total of approximately 350 million dead world wide.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: all2human

Right.

Covid-19 is just getting started. My prediction is 8 million dead in the U.S. and a total of approximately 350 million dead world wide.

On what did you base that prediction ?
Certainly not a YouTube video , I hope

a reply to: Gothmog

Here is what the American Hospital Association is expecting. Nothing to 'sneeze' at.

4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus 96 million cases overall in the US 480,000 deaths Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times a severe flu season.

Business Insider

a reply to: butcherguy

No, it certainly isn't, which is why slowing community spread is vital (to manage the impact on hospitals). The other side of that coin is a simple reality that over-managing the problem will cause ripples throughout the economy that could kill even more people if we get it wrong.

It's complicated and I sure as hell wouldn't want to be in charge of anything larger than a household right now.

a reply to: Gothmog

Do you know what exponential growth means? Take a listen to this vid - it explains just how this virus is going to spread and the ramifications on heath care and more. Stay well!

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Gothmog

Here is what the American Hospital Association is expecting. Nothing to 'sneeze' at.

4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus 96 million cases overall in the US 480,000 deaths Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times a severe flu season.

Business Insider

That is what they are planning for...

Expected

adjective adjective: expected
regarded as likely; anticipated.

Def from Google

Get it ?

a reply to: Gothmog

Get it ?

I don't have it yet, but it is in a neighboring county, so I am thinking I might have in two weeks.