Corona Virus Hard Facts

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Something about that word "official" that just somehow rubs me the wrong way...

I feel a "You Keep Using That Word..." meme coming on...

originally posted by: putnam6
2 new cases in Georgia same family and household recently visited Italy. As in Fulton County Ga. will be interesting to see if this blossoms I wouldn't doubt it they have been home two weeks

2 new cases in Georgia

2 sounds reasonable.
It is Flu season in Georgia.
Not like the hoax of the 200 that the news picked up on , and ran with , in February .

originally posted by: BPilgrim
The point of this thead is to do away with opinions and speculation and stick to the COLD HARD FACTS.

This is 1984 remember? There ARE no cold hard facts.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: Alien Abduct

That is the official covid19 live update site, I can't help if you don't like the numbers...

I was just breaking your balls about calling me a fearmonger in another thread.

originally posted by: Murgatroid
a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Something about that word "official" that just somehow rubs me the wrong way...

I feel a "You Keep Using That Word..." meme coming on...

I should have put the official in inverted comas as the numbers are more than certainly being padded.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

Touche`.

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: putnam6
2 new cases in Georgia same family and household recently visited Italy. As in Fulton County Ga. will be interesting to see if this blossoms I wouldn't doubt it they have been home two weeks

2 new cases in Georgia

2 sounds reasonable.
It is Flu season in Georgia.
Not like the hoax of the 200 that the news picked up on , and ran with , in February .

That pissed me off too.but this was to be expected, it's too big of a metro area and with Hartsfield being a hub inevitable.

The CDC is being very particular in who they're willing to test, due to a shortage of test kits and very few labs approved to do the testing. 'As many as 40 labs' have recently been authorized to start testing, and 75,000 test kits will soon be made available.
One lab in Seatlle that was authorized to test for the virus expects to be testing up to 250 samples a day. At present, they test 24 samples or less.
We're a nation of over 350,000,000 people. See the problem?
Accurate information is a pipe dream right now. Our guess is almost as good as the CDC's.

originally posted by: nugget1
The CDC is being very particular in who they're willing to test, due to a shortage of test kits and very few labs approved to do the testing. 'As many as 40 labs' have recently been authorized to start testing, and 75,000 test kits will soon be made available.
One lab in Seatlle that was authorized to test for the virus expects to be testing up to 250 samples a day. At present, they test 24 samples or less.
We're a nation of over 350,000,000 people. See the problem?
Accurate information is a pipe dream right now. Our guess is almost as good as the CDC's.

That's why people can't freak out, don't go to the doctor with sniffles if you have a fever or shortness of breath then make an appointment otherwise it's just gonna overwhelm the system just like China.

www.cdc.gov... has all you need to know.

a reply to: nugget1

Im not trying to avoid sensible speculation, let's call it investigative journalism. Would just like to see this thread free of unnameable sources, personal problems, travel plans and how prepped we all are. I would actually like to hear speculation, so long as it's based on a legitimate source of information and not the dream you had last night.

Expert Opinions

I for one think a 40-70% infection rate is reasonable to expect.

originally posted by: BPilgrim
a reply to: nugget1

Im not trying to avoid sensible speculation, let's call it investigative journalism. Would just like to see this thread free of unnameable sources, personal problems, travel plans and how prepped we all are. I would actually like to hear speculation, so long as it's based on a legitimate source of information and not the dream you had last night.

Expert Opinions

I for one think a 40-70% infection rate is reasonable to expect.

even if you triple the cases in Hubei you get nowhere near 40% of the population of 5-7 million remaining in the province

a reply to: putnam6

Do you suppose the governments of westernized countries could achieve such strict quarantine measures as China? I think that's an obvious NO.

Harvard Scientist Predicts Up to 70% of World Will Get COVID-19 Coronavirus

SOURCE

a reply to: Alien Abduct

Not to mention, nobody believes the numbers coming out of China. The number of deaths reported to infected don't add up in comparison to what we're seeing outside of China. Acual estimates of infected range from 300,000-1,000,000

Baron's

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: putnam6

Do you suppose the governments of westernized countries could achieve such strict quarantine measures as China? I think that's an obvious NO.

Harvard Scientist Predicts Up to 70% of World Will Get COVID-19 Coronavirus

SOURCE

Tthis is supposed to be hard facts LETS NOT HIJACK THE THREAD BUT

LOL come on man, lol our hygiene and eating habits alone make the US less prone our cities are less crowded and polluted . Hell it's not spreading in other provinces in China even close to that rate and you expect it to get here, doctors and scientist always talk worst-case scenario

Here is a live map of the strain mutation: Link
It updates every 2 hours

originally posted by: carewemust
Lots of people in the U.S. are recovering. But the MSM barely mentions it, or subtracts these people from their total number of infected. Has the U.S. medical profession stated how long the virus keeps one sick, on average? 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks?

Ok you post this in every thread. Do you have any facts to contribute?

It’s different for each case, symptoms vary, most reported it starts with a fever, followed by a dry cough. I just read that in the CDC. It damages the organs. You can recover and become reinfected. It’s not just the elderly, one of the 6 near Seattle was a man in his 40’s. Sickness probably lasts a few weeks, like the flu.

The case count will explode in the next week or two as better testing is done.

a reply to: putnam6
Most models are showing 40- 70% will become infected and yes most will survive but many will die.
It’s not going away anytime soon, that much is known.

Although slightly outdated given how fast things are moving, I found this study has some useful information.

China CDC

Believe the data is quoted on a lot of other sites.

a reply to: BPilgrim

www.thelancet.com...(20)30260-9/fulltext" target="_blank" class="postlink">the lancet

The lancet is a medical journal so you get good analysis.

You'll see from that page ( open the panels containing charts )

That case definition required three elements to be present two clinical observations and an epidemiological one (eg travel to Wuhan)

Or including testing for presence of virus.

Hard fact at this point is that ' probable ' cases are now skyrocketing

That as containment is likely to have failed then this point onwards gives you daily increasing chances of catching virus , until delay or mitigation measures are in effect (lockdowns / closures )

What's unlikely to be published widely is the sheer rate the 'actual ' numbers increase (it's a zoonotic pandemic)
when the r o is set on a graph against a timeline. When 1 infects 3 or higher , and while still asymptomatic , you're looking at a near vertical assent. 7 billion is a lot to reach but that's where Corona intends to be. A few weeks will be enough without strong mitigation measures put in early doors.

a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Just doing some maths , if one million infect 3 million thats four million , in say 14 days time. When the 3 becomes 9 million more cases you now got 13 million cases . When the 9 becomes 27 million you've got 41 million cases . And when the 27 infect 81 million more you now have 122 million cases. When 81 million infect 243 million people you now have 365 million.
And that's a full caseload for the us.
If we take the cycles at a period of 14 days each , there's about 10 weeks to US saturation point from a start of 1 million cases .
Obviously any measurement of that scale has got to include unfactored estimates.
Any how that's the reason governments make lockdowns , that markets get abandoned and people prep for pandemics.

Considering there may be close to 1 million worldwide (official total close to 100 000 ) probable cases then left unchecked the globe would have had until about mid may 2020 . We can safely assume (?) That by about April 1st we LL be seeing the full on effect s of c19, in western countries .