Corona Virus Updates Part 4

I saw that post doing the rounds
I did see the original post but can't find it right now to link the actual source
It seems like he is trying to really down play it and randomly it was picked up and has been shared a lot. Or maybe not so randomly!

I get what he is saying but the actions taken by governments and others around the world prove it is not just another virus. Weren't there studies showing that even after you get the virus you don't build immunity to it? Which then is another concern and not like other viruses circulating that we are used to?
I don't think people should be building panic, but those that people look up to (like doctors for example) should at least be trying harder to at least make people more aware of their actions. If they think it is just a flu they won't change their behaviours - even if that just means better personal hygiene and handwashing etc.

Also concerning is the number of GPs who are downplaying it to patients from what I am reading. Doctors are listened to and respected and for them to not act bothered in front of patients is really not doing us any favours. People will just think oh if they are not showing concern, then why should anyone else in the community.
Are they not being honest? Or are they not even looking into it much? Or are we paranoid here on ATS and it's a nothing burger?! (no, I don't think we are!)

a reply to: ShortBus

USA seems to be at 409 cases now, on worldometers
www.worldometers.info...

It changed, but I haven't seen an update here about it yet.

edit : GiS is showing 401 :

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

originally posted by: skanman
So I'll give my view on the UK situation:

Everyone seems to be really blasé with the whole situation.

At work (retail jewelry) I have colleges who cough without covering there mouths and if they do it's in there hands and then they proceed to touch EVERYTHING. Even with the "do you mind coughing in a tissue or in your sleeve" it doesn't register.

Customers seem to be just as nonchalant.. just general chit chat:

"It's just like the flu"
"Only effects old people innit"
"A Chinese problem"
"Coronovirus.. what's that?"
"NHS is fully prepared.. we got a great health system"

Making me start to doubt myself and even if I should bother practising safe hygiene when the guy/girl next to me is coughing up without covering there mouths.

I can fully say with confidence... IF ... We get it as bad as China, Italy, Iran.. we are fully f'd ... I'm glad I prepped in early February, interesting observing people's shopping trolleys these days.

I'll add a little British humour video, this comedian likes to point out how stupid people are by being a little silly so with out further ado:

Paul Chowdhry Covid 19

It's been like this for me. Been told to shut up. Laughed at etc (also UK) but now folks are asking me for updates. So keep on keeping on.

a reply to: Nucleardoom

Wrong. I have been making people aware for the past 2 months how significant this outbreak is.

Therefore I am very aware of the number of cases from the beginning. I dont recall seeing you posting early on, so I doubt you would be aware. Feel free to educate yourself on my earlier posts in part 1,2 &3.

As for people on here claiming they have it, it just comes across as attention seeking.

I wonder if I took a week off from reading ATS, News, etc... and come back next Saturday and see what the state of the world is.

Quite honestly, I have not got a whole lot done over the past month or more watching this all unfold.

Maybe I am over reacting?

It’s a strain of flu, stop panicking.

originally posted by: Stu112
It’s a strain of flu, stop panicking.

Trolling? Because it's not a strain of the flu.

a reply to: ShortBus

That's a nice big post. However a completely invalid arguement.

You are comparing a virus strain that surfaced at the beginning of the year with an entire years worth of infections from influenza.

Come back in 1 year and we can compare the statistics. I'm willing to bet based on what we've seen so far you can stick a couple more zeros on those figures.

originally posted by: cirrus12
Similar to me
I've heard today that 2 supermarkets where I live are out of all handwash, low on toilet paper, cleaning supplies decimated
oh and all paracetamol and ibuprofen gone too
It's strange as so many people I see are quite blase about it all and don't seem fazed. Could be that they are secret preppers though! I think more people are realising the reality of what will probably happen when seeing the numbers from Europe. We are so connected with flights and the eurostar running hundreds of journeys daily that it's not a case of if, but when.
a reply to: Tracele

I think you’re right, I’ve noticed comments on news articles now have a lot more comments of concern. The constant coverage is having an impact now I think all being of a serious tone, people realising that actually millions of people have underlying health conditions that could make this disease very serious indeed.... and as you say it’s a case of when not if, this is happening... possibly a once in our lifetime event... certainly worrying!

originally posted by: MuldersMate
a reply to: ShortBus

That's a nice big post. However a completely invalid arguement.

You are comparing a virus strange that surfaced at the beginning of the year with an entire years worth of infections from influenza.

Come back in 1 year and we can compare the statistics. I'm willing to bet based on what we've seen so far you can stick a couple more zeros on those figures.

I agree the post doesn't seem to hold water. Especially the sentence about USA said it will test everyone, blah blah blah.

originally posted by: ShortBus
I wonder if I took a week off from reading ATS, News, etc... and come back next Saturday and see what the state of the world is.

Quite honestly, I have not got a whole lot done over the past month or more watching this all unfold.

Maybe I am over reacting?

Well, I have loads of stuff I should be doing on my hols, but have taken a few days doing updates.
mainly due to the reactions from a few large superpowers and this "Flu", which isn't a flu.
Its bad, maybe not apocalyptic bad, but bad nonetheless.
I might take tomorrow off, i really have stuff to do.

originally posted by: ShortBus
This was posted on Facebook...

From an MD immunologist:



The government is very proud that testing will be available to every American.

This doesn't look like a propaganda piece to me at all..
Nothing to see here, move along.

I have friends who work in a hospital in an affected area and they are taking it seriously! Yes, they are wearing masks..

a reply to: ShortBus

It's irresponsible as a doctor to give numbers for an entire year of flu compared to 2 months of what he called COVID19 but is actually called SARS-CoV-2. COVID19 is what you get from the virus called SARS-CoV-2.

nice. so i live in switzerland, came to see my parents this weekend in a previously untouched area of northern italy and now i am on lockdown here

they gave stats on fatalities in italy and i would really be curious to compare them to other countries do you have them?

The italian data is odd to me as other countries could just not be testing for Covid-19 in similar cases as one really has to wonder if normal flu would have had the same outcome


I have had to translate from source
The average age of deceased and covid-19 positive patients is 81.4.
There are 48 women (31.0%). The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 3.6. Deaths occur mostly after 80 years and in people with important pre-existing diseases:

in detail, mortality is 14.3% over 90 years, 8.2% between 80 and 89, 4% between 70 and 79, 1.4% between 60 and 69
and 0.1% between 50 and 59, while there are no deaths under this age group. Overall, 21 patients (15.5% of the sample) had 0 or 1 pathology, 25 (18.5%) had 2 pathologies and 70 (60.3%) had 3 or more pathologies; for 19 patients it has not yet been possible to recover the information. Hypertension and ischemic heart disease are confirmed as the most frequent pathologies.

Same, I actually had a life before this!
I need a break from the continual updates. But it's evolving so rapidly it's hard to switch off from it.
a reply to: ShortBus

www.islandecho.co.uk...

The island I live on (South UK) The Isle Of Wight has just had our first confirmed case today. It will be interesting, if not scary, to see how this pans out. Our island is often a few decades behind the 'mainland uk' in many ways and doesn't manage things well. We will see how this goes.

We have a high percentage elderly population and I work with many of them. Our island only has about 5 - 10 large supermarkets so it's likely the patient had been to one of them. We only have ferries here via a few routes and again that's a transmission route.

I'm not worried for me but the impact on society and the clients I support in my job. I have made provisions in January for me and my children but hope things don't get like China and containment is somehow managed. I have chickens for eggs and plans for issues which may arise.

I will update any further information regarding situation in this relatively small island. 140k ish population and only one hospital and ferries to get to mainland.

From the Get Ready letter by Italian doctors on the front lines:

In a separate note, Italian intensive care doctor Giuseppe Nattino, from the Lecco province in northern Italy, has shared a clinical summary of the patients his unit has been treating, which doctors described as “frightening” in terms of what it could mean for the UK.

The technical note spells out how patients with coronavirus experience a severe infection in all of their lungs, requiring major ventilation support. It also reveals the effect of the virus, which affects blood pressure, the heart, kidneys and liver with patients needing sustained treatment.

And regarding that It's just older people sentiment...

In an alarming development, Dr Nattino said younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions.

He added: “The last days are showing a younger population involved as if the elderly and weaker part of the population crashed early and now younger patients, having exhausted their physiological reserves, come to overcrowded, overwhelmed hospitals with little resources left.”

Source

An interesting set of statements by someone who studies Chinese manufacturing:

"According to Reuters; to the extent data can be gathered from within a closed communist system; total exports from China dropped 17.2% in January and February."

"There are no measurable, demonstrable, citations for missing component parts making downstream finished goods impossible. There are lots of anticipatory declarations, but no shortage has materialized."

Specific pharmaceuticals may be an exception to this. Sea shipping time and inventory stockpiles should contribute less than 30 days lag.