Corona Virus Updates Part 3

a reply to: myselfaswell


Although this article is a week old, this really stood out to me

So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data. The death rate for 2019-nCoV is still unclear, but it appears to be higher than that of the flu. Throughout the outbreak, the death rate for 2019-nCoV has been about 2%. Still, officials note that in the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, U.S. secretary of the Health and Human Services, said during a news briefing on Jan. 28. The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said.

Here's the full article:

www.livescience.com...


So you're right inasmuch as the mortality rate is somewhat higher with corona, but still not anything to panic about. We'll see how things develop

a reply to: Beltalowda

He's not half wrong. There have been plenty running around fear mongering. There are those who have latched on to any small detail to prove that Captain Tripps lives!

It doesn't and this is not it.

This is something to aware of. It could cause disruptions. The closest thing I can think to what we may experience is the Spanish Flu, but even as scary as that was, it didn't kill most people and it didn't break down the fabric of society even if it did put a serious strain on it in places.

But while China seems to be having some serious issues, we have yet to see the same kind of problems in other countries. We don't know why that is. It could be that there hasn't been enough time although with each day that passes without a sudden outbreak beginning in one place or another that seems increasingly unlikely, so the explanation must be something else. It's the unknowns that make this interesting and scary. The missing piece of the puzzle could be very, very important to confining China's issues in China.

originally posted by: Gibbon
I have not logged into ATS in quite some time but wanted to contribute to this thread ...so hello all and here are my thoughts.

Many have wondered why this epidemic is so severe in China both in spread and fatality but not so much yet in the rest of the world. Stick with me here while I offer a possible reason.

I have read that the difficulty in developing a SARS vaccine is due to the problem that the first pathogen exposure in the vaccine primes the imune system not so much for an effective response at destroying the virus on later exposure but rather on an over response that destroys the host. So this is a thing that could also occur in waves of infection possibly.

So then, what if China is not experiencing its first wave of this bugger but its second. What if the first wave only gave folks the sniffles and merely inoculated a portion of the population and the folks that are getting hit hard now have been exposed before. What if that exposure occurred before the virus mutated into a form that spreads more easily as we see now and as such was local to Wuhan and the rest of the world is on its first go round.

I am only speculating here and I am probably not even qualified to do that. But if this is the case then it could be some time before the rest of the world gets as hit as hard as Wuhan is now.

I suggested this very thing some pages back. It’s possible 2nd wave is far more serious. If tennisdawg was right and it hits people a 3rd time, well that could be very bad indeed.

The issue then would be that the timeline would likely need to be pushed back quite a bit further to accommodate wave 1.

It is all very odd, very odd indeed. World reaction tells me there is something to be gravely concerned about here. Actual events, so far, seem to be suggesting not so much outside of China. Time will tell though.

a reply to: MaverickLRD

I can verify the 6 hours for pcr, is the primary method we use on that and there’s links in thread 1 and 2 To how that’s done and explaining it , failure points in the testing method point to novice or untrained people performing the tests ( I’m in Germany so again eu !, but we are not seeing false positives on the testing as here in Germany it’s only a doctor allowed to collect the sample!)
Edit:
We don’t have centralised testing either, pretty much any major hospital can perform the tests or send and receive them via dedicated courier in a very short space of time ? Usually under 1 hour to testing site)

a reply to: Adphil28

It could be very widespread in the rest of the world as a first wave but not getting noticed because the symptoms a similar to cold or flue.

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: MaverickLRD

I can verify the 6 hours for pcr, is the primary method we use on that and there’s links in thread 1 and 2 To how that’s done and explaining it , failure points in the testing method point to novice or untrained people performing the tests ( I’m in Germany so again eu !, but we are not seeing false positives on the testing as here in Germany it’s only a doctor allowed to collect the sample!)

I’ve done quite a few PCR tests and whoo it’s really nice vs the 3 day process we used before when identifying organisms. Clean rooms are a must though. Easy to contaminate

Sounds like a good plan with Dr collection. They must have seen the errors the US was facing with inconclusive results

originally posted by: Necrose
We should get to double digits by the end of the month.
New Coronavirus cases in China without Hubei:
Feb 14 221
Feb13 267
Feb12 312
Feb11 377
Feb10 370
Feb9 442
Feb8 505
Feb7 544
Feb6 696
Feb5 707
Feb4 685
Feb3 888
Feb2 722
Feb1 668
Jan31 755
Jan30 772
Jan29 715
Jan28 619
Jan27 480

It looks like the number of cases daily peaked first week of February and are slowly dropping off

a reply to: Adphil28

When people are as exhausted and overwhelmed and overworked as the people in the Chinese hospitals surely as, even people with lots of experience at it would make mistakes.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

bnonews.com...

There are currently 67,100 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,526 fatalities.

a reply to: ARM1968

I think what they're most worried about is that so many will get sick enough quickly enough that the traditional medical infrastructure will get overwhelmed and fail to provide the needed services.

I think that's the biggest issue you are seeing in China.

If the medical structure breaks, then you have an overflow of sick people making more people sick. People who might survive with care die. People who might otherwise be isolated from the sick get exposed and become sick compounding the issue. Pretty soon, it all spirals into the ugliness you're seeing.

Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City: China, 2019-2020

Partial abstract:

Results: We found that our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 is calculated to be as high as 7.05 (95%CrI: 6.11-8.18) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 has declined R to 3.24 (95%CrI: 3.16-3.32), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 983006 (95%CrI: 759475-1296258) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 9.8% (95%CrI: 7.6-13.0%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.05%-0.09%) and 0.23% (95%CrI: 0.17-0.30%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.06%

Conclusions: We have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of 2019-nCov in Wuhan, China, 2019-2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of our approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: Halfswede

Seriously??? Just read one day's worth of threads, just one day.

"50,000 dead", 100 to 500 million infected, 600 million quarantined...the sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!

It's unbelievable! Never seen anything like this. You, and many others, characterize it as "it's only caution, why you mad, bro?". Okay, then why are you all freaking panicking??? There's talk of 'bugging out' here, 'bugging in', 'long term survival', government and economic collapse'...C'mon, you can't deny this!! Right?

It's pure "Fear Mongering"!!! And you want some prooff??? I'll give you some...

99.99% of the "Fear Mongering" is coming from developed countries! It's NOT coming from any other country, but countries who have direct high speed internet access! You're not hearing it from India (they have a lot of people too, you know), or Russia, or anywhere else. Where you're hearing it from is countries who have an axe to grind with CHINA! They WANT it to be bad, they WANT China to be the disease of the world.

You know, you can say whatever you want, but I suggest you step out of the house and take a breath of fresh air, step away from this alleged "crisis", and see that the World is not going to collapse! It just isn't!

To be honest you appear to be the only one here being hysterical. It’s quite odd and perhaps your time would be better spent forming a coherent argument and discussing the situation calmly, as most here are doing. I’m sure you have some points that would be interesting to add.

Let me help. Why do you think this virus seems to be impacting the Chinese more severely than the rest of the world? I find that increasingly odd.

a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

Nice find!

1 million infected, for only Wuhan.

Guo Wengui is saying 1.5 million total infections in China.

I’m not ready to totally say he’s right but those numbers are awfully interesting.

a reply to: Gibbon

True but given there was no travel restrictions at the start in China (when no one knew they weee infectious ) and the shear volume of people that moved in and out during that time , I seriously doubt we wouldn’t have seen at least a jump of more the 7 (5 or so in U.K. and 2 in Germany) ( that’s my homes so I watch them) in the 2 months or more since the first case in China ( reported ) given that surly there should be more as more than one person left China and we should be seeing many at this time ?

a reply to: MaverickLRD

Standard procedure it would have to be some overwhealimg. Emergency of epic proportions before they would allow anyone else to do it , it’s their job and only they do it, if you know what unions are like then that’s how jobs are here in Germany, ( an electrician won’t touch a pipe for a plumber !) same for doctors and nurses tbh

a reply to: ketsuko

Yes, and I think we're seeing another problem arise from the situation, as we're seeing health professionals get sick first. On one hand that's good, the first people sick get the best care, but as we have seen from the recovery figures, this virus takes a bit of getting over, and you can be quite ill while you're getting over it. Too large a percentage of our doctors, nurses, porters, paramedics, receptionists, cleaners, and other essential care providers and other emergency services are all going to be so understaffed as to be ineffective.

Self care, self isolation, keep calm and keep positive become essential. Batch cook some of your granny's chicken soup and freeze it in portions for you and yours for during your convalescence. Get some frozen fruit and freeze some milk. Do all the stuff you know you're supposed to do but don't bother doing. Stop eating processed food now. Eat more veggies and fruit every meal, not just every day. Start it now, and you'll give yourself a head start, and you may find yourself with a few more good habits at the end of this.

Video from inside one of the Wuhan hospitals. Subtitled.

Twitter

Certainly seems like a place you go to wait, and die.

This was on WeChat yesterday and now NTD has posted it which is enough verification for me.

China Reports Nearly Half a Million People Have Had Close Contact With Coronavirus Patients

VOA

a reply to: ketsuko

Kinda hard to mess it up to be honest ( don’t get me wrong I know people make more mistakes when tired / exhausted etc ) but it’s a critical test and of like life saving importance , tbh it’s just not something you make mistakes with, collecting the swab sample you generally know if you’ve done it right the person will urge like there gonna throw up when you swab the back of the nasal cavity ( if they don’t you didn’t do it right or far enough!), but if your that tired as a first care person you know to ask another nurse to do something for you, not make mistakes and hide it!)

a reply to: SpartanStoic

That video is maybe a week or so old,I've seen it before today.