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So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data. The death rate for 2019-nCoV is still unclear, but it appears to be higher than that of the flu. Throughout the outbreak, the death rate for 2019-nCoV has been about 2%. Still, officials note that in the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, U.S. secretary of the Health and Human Services, said during a news briefing on Jan. 28. The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said.
originally posted by: Gibbon
I have not logged into ATS in quite some time but wanted to contribute to this thread ...so hello all and here are my thoughts.
Many have wondered why this epidemic is so severe in China both in spread and fatality but not so much yet in the rest of the world. Stick with me here while I offer a possible reason.
I have read that the difficulty in developing a SARS vaccine is due to the problem that the first pathogen exposure in the vaccine primes the imune system not so much for an effective response at destroying the virus on later exposure but rather on an over response that destroys the host. So this is a thing that could also occur in waves of infection possibly.
So then, what if China is not experiencing its first wave of this bugger but its second. What if the first wave only gave folks the sniffles and merely inoculated a portion of the population and the folks that are getting hit hard now have been exposed before. What if that exposure occurred before the virus mutated into a form that spreads more easily as we see now and as such was local to Wuhan and the rest of the world is on its first go round.
I am only speculating here and I am probably not even qualified to do that. But if this is the case then it could be some time before the rest of the world gets as hit as hard as Wuhan is now.
originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: MaverickLRD
I can verify the 6 hours for pcr, is the primary method we use on that and there’s links in thread 1 and 2 To how that’s done and explaining it , failure points in the testing method point to novice or untrained people performing the tests ( I’m in Germany so again eu !, but we are not seeing false positives on the testing as here in Germany it’s only a doctor allowed to collect the sample!)
originally posted by: Necrose
We should get to double digits by the end of the month.
New Coronavirus cases in China without Hubei:
Feb 14 221
Results: We found that our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 is calculated to be as high as 7.05 (95%CrI: 6.11-8.18) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 has declined R to 3.24 (95%CrI: 3.16-3.32), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 983006 (95%CrI: 759475-1296258) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 9.8% (95%CrI: 7.6-13.0%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.05%-0.09%) and 0.23% (95%CrI: 0.17-0.30%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.06%
Conclusions: We have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of 2019-nCov in Wuhan, China, 2019-2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of our approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.
originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: Halfswede
Seriously??? Just read one day's worth of threads, just one day.
"50,000 dead", 100 to 500 million infected, 600 million quarantined...the sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!
It's unbelievable! Never seen anything like this. You, and many others, characterize it as "it's only caution, why you mad, bro?". Okay, then why are you all freaking panicking??? There's talk of 'bugging out' here, 'bugging in', 'long term survival', government and economic collapse'...C'mon, you can't deny this!! Right?
It's pure "Fear Mongering"!!! And you want some prooff??? I'll give you some...
99.99% of the "Fear Mongering" is coming from developed countries! It's NOT coming from any other country, but countries who have direct high speed internet access! You're not hearing it from India (they have a lot of people too, you know), or Russia, or anywhere else. Where you're hearing it from is countries who have an axe to grind with CHINA! They WANT it to be bad, they WANT China to be the disease of the world.
You know, you can say whatever you want, but I suggest you step out of the house and take a breath of fresh air, step away from this alleged "crisis", and see that the World is not going to collapse! It just isn't!