Hong Kong Dr. warns could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population

This University of Hong Kong public health epidemiologist recommends lock-down China style or

Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.

Coronavirus could infect 60%


Maybe we should consider making nice and being helpful.

a reply to: BlissSeeker

I'm curious how truthful china is being about the number infected and number of dead.
They aren't known for their honest approach to pretty much anything.

a reply to: BlissSeeker

From the article...

Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures

What measures would those be? Like silencing the doctor who discovered the f-ing thing?

Silenced Doctor Who Warned of Coronavirus Dies

They got it wrong from the get-go....


Also from the OP article...

“You need extra trust, extra sense of solidarity, extra sense of goodwill, all of which have been completely used up –"

a reply to: BlissSeeker

*BREAKING NEWS* New strain of Common cold could spread around the world!

It's only a big deal now because it's new, a virus starts off strong and gets weaker as it spreads. Of course it's origin is going to be hit the hardest, because that's where the virus literally incubated and manifested itself. And for the most part it's been contained, give it two months and this will fizzle out. If not, then perhaps we need to worry, the timing of the virus is a little suspect tho.

a reply to: BlissSeeker

1% is abouts 70 million people dead if this thing spreads.

And I think if people take the proper precautions it would be a lot less.

Hand washing is a must. Buy stock in Purell.

This is why you can't take any of this seriously, each person tries to out hype the next. I think he's wrong, it's going to spread to 130% of the population, some people are going to get it more than once.

a reply to: grey580

Hehe I am telling people Germ-X 70% ethyl alcohol.

I hope the Doctor is just nervous being close to the epicenter, but I am afraid he isn't.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

This is why you can't take any of this seriously, each person tries to out hype the next. I think he's wrong, it's going to spread to 130% of the population, some people are going to get it more than once.

I hear you.

The doom porn proponents are annoying.

But so are the "there's no problem at all" idiots.

A pox on both of their houses!

There is a conspiracy about a Chinese level 4 virologist researcher being arrested in Canada.

www.cbc.ca...

I don't think washing hands will do squat against a manufactured virus. They need to start on developing a supercharged zanamivir type of medication , or something.

Perhaps the guide stones have jumped the gun.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: BlissSeeker

*BREAKING NEWS* New strain of Common cold could spread around the world!

It's only a big deal now because it's new, a virus starts off strong and gets weaker as it spreads. Of course it's origin is going to be hit the hardest, because that's where the virus literally incubated and manifested itself. And for the most part it's been contained, give it two months and this will fizzle out. If not, then perhaps we need to worry, the timing of the virus is a little suspect tho.

Where'd you get this? Viruses may mutate as they spread - but that could just as easily make them more virulent, not less. The whole mechanism of a virus is to infect and re-program host cells to produce copies - identical copies - of the virus.

Flu, ebola, smallpox, polio, measles, marburg, hantavirus, rabies, these all remain very dangerous, despite being known for decades (or centuries.)

Survivors may develop antibodies, so if exposed again, it may be less consequential. Which is what vaccines do - exposing the immune system to a weakened / killed virus so it learns an immune response.

They may develop treatments that are effective at managing symptoms, and may develop anti-viral meds that directly attack (or interfere with) the virus.

But it's not just gonna go away if we ignore it.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: BlissSeeker

*BREAKING NEWS* New strain of Common cold could spread around the world!

It's only a big deal now because it's new, a virus starts off strong and gets weaker as it spreads. Of course it's origin is going to be hit the hardest, because that's where the virus literally incubated and manifested itself. And for the most part it's been contained, give it two months and this will fizzle out. If not, then perhaps we need to worry, the timing of the virus is a little suspect tho.

"For the most part it's been contained" That's why it's in 28 countries (and climbing) and reputable sources claim it's actually much worse than officials are saying?

You apparently need to do more homework strongfp. Hopefully you'll realize this is not what the MSM and governments are describing.

a reply to: BlissSeeker
No kidding...I was listening to a woman who was quarantined after traveling on a cruise ship...she was tested and found positive for the virus but she reported only having a mild cough and overall felt fine...

YAY!!!

More DOOM PORN!!!

YAY!! YAY!! YAY!!!!

MORE!! We need MOAR!!!!

ETA - Yet ANOTHER (sub-1000) poster out of the woodwork with some quality DOOM PORN!! Where do all these people come from???????????

a reply to: squittles

A virus isn't immune to how basic evolution works. The more hosts it infiltrates the more mutational mistakes it will make to adapt to such an environment. From the get go a virus is working overtime to just get to the next host, a consistent upstream battle. The more it fights, the more mutations to replicate it needs to achieve it's main goal.

Luckily, humans and mammals in general have evolved almost hand in hand with this virus, we can't live without them and they can't live without us. Collateral damage is inevitable.

a reply to: FamCore

And you tell me how many people have died from this virus outside of China?

Here in Canada so far zero, and thee (off the top of my head) patients have been release and living normal lives.

doom porn people say ?
Problem is its not a matter of IF a virus can kill off millions but a matter of when .
999 times Billy crys wolves the 1000 time there is one .
Problem is it can be the first cry or last there is no way to know .
TRUE story 26 years agaio I marred a woman she came with a cat this cat started showing all the systems of rabies so I put it in a cat cage and went and reported this . Well the responce was we would need to kill the cat and it cost 900 $ or so to test so we just wont worry about it .
within the moth there was a out brake over that small town mostly farm lands which lucky burned its self out quickly .But it could have been much much worse .
In the last 70 years Humans have been living on borrowed time and no major out brakes of any virus have happened and we have forgotten just how many million die when it happens and take it for grant now .
Cll it doom pron if you like but like a rock in space there is a virus with humans name all over it .

Here is a list of all the things taht will never happen because your special .
A rock wont hit earth
A virus wont kill you
you will never end up losing that greate job and be poor as its only because people are lazy they are poor .
Nothing can ever go wrong because your special and its all just doom porn .
Funny you call every one else sheep when your a horse with blinders on .

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: FamCore

And you tell me how many people have died from this virus outside of China?
Here in Canada so far zero, and thee (off the top of my head) patients have been release and living normal lives.

Does China have hospitals? I saw a 'pop up' modular clinic erected in Wuhan with the ability to quarantine 1000 people.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: FamCore

And you tell me how many people have died from this virus outside of China?

Here in Canada so far zero, and thee (off the top of my head) patients have been release and living normal lives.

Well, 1% would mean you won't see 1 person die until 100 have contracted the virus. 1%.. not a big deal right? Unless it is airborne, and extremely contagious. And if 60% of the worlds population caught it, that's tens of millions dead. But.. I don't really buy that. Not sure where he is getting 60% infection rate. I mean.. a ship which is basically a floating Petri dish, had positive results from less than 25% of those tested. Which is still high, but.. it's not 60%.

Even 25% would be pretty devastating however. 2 billion infected - 1% of that would be 20 million, fairly substantial. Normal influenza kills from around 300 to 650 thousand a year, depending on how bad a year it was.

So this at a much lesser prediction of 25% infection.. with a fatality rate of 1%.. would be the equivalent of 30 years of the worst flu seasons.. in a single year @ 650 thousand. Ok.. let's say even less contagious, just around 12% with 1% fatality. Still kills the equivalent of 15 of the worst flu years worldwide.

So.. yea, I can see the concern. Guess when you are part of 8 billion people, and it only may infect say.. 15% of the world, and only kill 1% of those people.. who cares? Unless you care about people losing lives, and then 10 + million dead in a single year would seem pretty grim.

Edit to add - I guess the ship infected # is now at over 170, I was basing this on 135, but not sure how many now they have tested. Also I was fairly negligible about the two prisoners who were being tested. Turns out they were positive. So.. maybe this is a bit more virulent after all. But even 15% infected with 1% fatality would be very grim for the world.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: squittles

A virus isn't immune to how basic evolution works. The more hosts it infiltrates the more mutational mistakes it will make to adapt to such an environment. From the get go a virus is working overtime to just get to the next host, a consistent upstream battle. The more it fights, the more mutations to replicate it needs to achieve it's main goal.

Luckily, humans and mammals in general have evolved almost hand in hand with this virus, we can't live without them and they can't live without us. Collateral damage is inevitable.

We can't live without viruses? This one in particular? Where does *those* ideas come from?

We do live in symbiotic relationships with bacteria - but what viruses do we have such a relationship with?

Again, you assume mutations mean a weaker form - there's really no reason to assume that. Evolutionary pressure would tend to make them *more* contagious, more adaptable to the host environment. If mutations meant weakness over time, all of the viral diseases we've known would have devolved into harmless little clumps of protein and nucleic acid. Instead, what can happen is thru horizonal gene transfer, these evolutions can become more lethal - here, read this: academic.oup.com...

Just like antibiotic-resistant bacteria - that've developed resistance to the antibiotics we've employed to where some are all-but-untreatable - viral mutations / re-arrangements have done the same - made anti-viral resistant viruses.

From the above citation:

Adamantanes are limited in their clinical use for influenza virus because of widespread drug resistance. Amantidine-resistant influenza A virus was first detected in 1981.

In the USA, the incidence of adamantane resistance rose from Asn mutation, ∼10% have mutations at position 27 or 30 and up to 2% have mutation at position 26.

Resistance to adamantanes develops very rapidly in the influenza A virus background. In cell culture, susceptible viruses became resistant after only three or five passages in the presence of 2 µg/mL amantadine

(sorry, this citation keeps cutting off and I don't know why)

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
YAY!!!

More DOOM PORN!!!

YAY!! YAY!! YAY!!!!

MORE!! We need MOAR!!!!

ETA - Yet ANOTHER (sub-1000) poster out of the woodwork with some quality DOOM PORN!! Where do all these people come from???????????

I smell a bait thread. How else are they going to get S&Fs?