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It is truly sad that some are so disillusioned.
originally posted by: tgidkp
i have excused myself from any and all political theatere in since before Christmas...
... nay, i have not pleasured myself with any of the name-calling and mud-swilling that has accompanied the embarrassments against our democracy (yes: democracy. not: republic.) that have ensued since then....
... but i was drawn to seek clarity on some of the piddly-worthless-crap ive seen peddled in the past several days. and let me make my thoughts direct...
::: i simply do not understand how any of you can any longer stand in defense of this man :::
yes, just today i put my eyes on his sorry-sad-sack for the first time in months and it is clear to me that his attempt to convince himself of his own legitimacy has taken its toll on his appearance.
the inhumanly orange tone that he plasters over his pasty skin is less believable than he has ever tried to tired to sell us.
they are, the whole lot of them, the very worst of all humanity... and if you are convinced yourself that he does not sit atop this pile of garbage, then i am afraid that you yourself may also be beyond repair.
tl;dr gross. just awful and gross and beyond repair.
to anyone else who looks upon this and sees the death of a once great union... yes. 2020 is the year that i see our ultimate demise.
With whom do you want to replace Trump with?
The only difference between our opinions is that one of them is right and the other one is yours.
Bitecofer, a 42-year-old professor at Christopher Newport University in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, was little known in the extremely online, extremely male-dominated world of political forecasting until November 2018. That’s when she nailed almost to the number the nature and size of the Democrats’ win in the House, even as other forecasters went wobbly in the race’s final days. Not only that, but she put out her forecast back in July, and then stuck by it while polling shifted throughout the summer and fall.
And today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate. If she’s right, we are now in a post-economy, post-incumbency, post record-while-in-office era of politics. Her analysis, as Bitecofer puts it with characteristic immodesty, amounts to nothing less than “flipping giant paradigms of electoral theory upside down.
In July of 2018, my innovative forecasting model raised eyebrows by predicting some four months before the midterm election that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives. In hindsight, that may not seem such a bold prediction, but when my forecast was released, election Twitter was still having a robust debate as to whether the Blue Wave would be large enough for Democrats to pick up the 23 seats they needed to take control of the House of Representatives and return the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi.
Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.