Corona Virus Updates Part 2

Kia and Hyundai forced to stop factories in South Korea because supply chain for parts stretches back to China

Korea Herald

This means they used up their extra inventory stockpiled for Spring Festival stoppage in China. From here on out expect more companies to have issues due to supply chain sourcing in China.

No word from fam in China, wife said everyone a-ok. #1 uncle is minding his talk and isn’t in trouble, yet.

Still seeing lots of chatter about Emperor Xi being physically ill. Word is that his party secretary (sort of like China’s Nancy Pelosi) is handing out his orders. Also rumor around dissidents circles is that someone will make a play to remove him before February is finished.

#1 uncle thinks someone has taken the reigns already and that’s why US w/WHO was asked to come.

Sorry not exactly virus related but gives context to some goings on I think.

What happens with eBay for instance, if the person packaging your product coughs droplets on your item , then they wrap it, send it, we open it...... is there a timeframe in which this virus dies in that time before we get it?

China tests Russian anti-viral drug which might treat coronavirus as Moscow warns of possible 'mass outbreak'

While health chiefs prepare for a potential pandemic, China is testing a Russian anti-viral drug in the hope that it might help control the new coronavirus. It comes as prospects of a vaccine look slim for the foreseeable future.
Triazavirin, developed at Yekaterinburg’s Ural Federal University, was originally developed to combat ‘Bird Flu’ (H5N1), and, given that there are some similarities between the two infections, researchers feel it’s worth a punt. The medicine is already known to be effective against 15 types of flu.

Russia’s Deputy Health Minister Sergei Kraevoi confirmed the news on Tuesday. He also revealed that the Chinese still haven’t shared samples required for a vaccine with foreign researchers, adding that without these it’s impossible to start looking for a remedy.

China hasn't:

...shared samples required for a vaccine

I wonder why

Did anybody see inside the 1,000 bed hospital built in 10 days?

Looks like a prison
twitter.com...

Now China is dealing with the deadly H5N1 bird flu outbreak, coincidently near Wuhan ?
twitter.com...

originally posted by: Necrose
Guys but don't tell me this is an exponential growth, at 24k confirmed cases the next step would be.... ugh... roughly 36k tomorrow and then 53k the day after tomorrow

THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF CASES COULD, PERHAPS, BE GROWING AT THIS RATE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ANY DATA SUGGESTING IT IS THE CASE, THEREFORE WE HAVE TO STICK TO THE CHINESE REPORTED CASES.

Here's where that assessment fails.
www.physiciansbriefing.com...

MONDAY, Feb. 3, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- Multiple major cities in China are estimated to have imported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and epidemics are estimated to be growing exponentially in those cities, according to a study published online Jan. 31 in The Lancet.

Joseph T. Wu, Ph.D., from the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues used data on the number of cases exported from Wuhan internationally to infer the number of infections in Wuhan from Dec. 1, 2019, to Jan. 25, 2020. Accounting for the effect of the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan, which began on Jan. 23 to 24, 2020, the national and global spread of 2019-nCoV was forecast.

The researchers estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2.68 in the baseline scenario, and as of Jan. 25, 2020, 75,815 individuals had been infected in Wuhan. The doubling time of the epidemic was 6.4 days. Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were estimated to have imported 461, 113, 98, 111, and 80 infections from Wuhan, respectively, in the baseline scenario. Assuming that the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV is similar domestically and over time, epidemics were estimated to be growing exponentially in multiple major cities in China, with a lag time of about one to two weeks behind the Wuhan outbreak.

Wuhan had 300 cases 2 weeks ago. If the other major cities in China are lagging the epicenter, then we're going to see minimal growth in cases in those cities until sometime around this weekend, if major spikes in places like Shanghai, Hong Kong, etc erupt this weekend, then that is exponential growth. Each region is going to have limiting factors such as their overall population for each city or even district which is experiencing the epidemic. Even taking the official numbers as the grounds for analyzing this, you have to take the lag time into consideration.

Now, on a personal note, I don't believe the lag time is the whole story. This virus sat idle for most of December and the first half of January before hitting hard, really hard. I've wondered quite a lot about the possibility that it doesn't become active in the body under normal circumstances for a month or more following infection, then begins it's 10-14 day incubation period. If that is the case, then we're going to be seeing spikes globally at the end of February, so we should not be celebrating ANYTHING at the beginning of this month because we are a long way from out of the woods.

(As an aside, viral dormancy is fairly common. A lot of people running around with HIV tested negative for it, same as Herpes. Viruses are known to lie dormant in a patient's system before fully incubating and producing test verifiable presence. There is absolutely no way to dismiss that theory without testing it against time, same as there is no way to verify that theory except waiting it out.)

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Still seeing lots of chatter about Emperor Xi being physically ill. Word is that his party secretary (sort of like China’s Nancy Pelosi) is handing out his orders. Also rumor around dissidents circles is that someone will make a play to remove him before February is finished.

If Xi dies of this, I'd expect it will be presented as a plane crash or other calamity rather than the CCP admitting a party higher up actually caught the disease. I know they're not as ridiculous as the NorKs are with their "god amongst men" views of dear leader, but I still can't see the CCP permitting ANY news of Xi being sick to be officially released.

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Now China is dealing with the deadly H5N1 bird flu outbreak, coincidently near Wuhan ?
twitter.com...

The CCP IRL at this moment...

originally posted by: Necrose
Alright boys, 19% increase today with total numbers so the same as yesterday.

originally posted by: Necrose
Guys but don't tell me this is an exponential growth, at 24k confirmed cases the next step would be.... ugh... roughly 36k tomorrow and then 53k the day after tomorrow

THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF CASES COULD, PERHAPS, BE GROWING AT THIS RATE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ANY DATA SUGGESTING IT IS THE CASE, THEREFORE WE HAVE TO STICK TO THE CHINESE REPORTED CASES.

Turn that graph on its side and tell me what that curve is. It's not linear. I think you don't understand that exponential doesn't mean squared. Here is a link to show what I mean. en.wikipedia.org... .

Australia now at 13.

An eight-year-old boy has been confirmed as Queensland's third case of the potentially deadly coronavirus.

He was travelling in the same tour group as the 44-year-old man and a 42-year-old woman who have been confirmed as Queensland's other cases of coronavirus.

The child remains in isolation at the Gold Coast University Hospital and is currently stable.

Linky

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Right o. They’ll say he had something else if at all. Even saying he’s sick would cause rumors to go through the roof.

I expect what would happen is he’s removed behind closed doors, new guy steps up, we “learn” Xi is tired or taking a break, and later on he’s dead.

There’s a lot of progressives super angry at him for trade war coz it cost lots of party members money. This disaster is perfect cover to take him out one way or another. I expect Wang Qishan, aka the power behind Xi, to be active in the shadows.

the astrology of this event is pretty serious if this is related to conjunction, that means this is just the beginning and the epicenters of the conjunction or where it affects the most were China and Europe

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

Now, on a personal note, I don't believe the lag time is the whole story. This virus sat idle for most of December and the first half of January before hitting hard, really hard. I've wondered quite a lot about the possibility that it doesn't become active in the body under normal circumstances for a month or more following infection, then begins it's 10-14 day incubation period. If that is the case, then we're going to be seeing spikes globally at the end of February, so we should not be celebrating ANYTHING at the beginning of this month because we are a long way from out of the woods.

And just wonder; if we don't see spikes globally at the end of February; maybe that means the virus can morph its activation length, fluctuating from a month to two months... or longer. We might not see global spikes until the end of march or April.

Make of this what you will, but this was a post that was APPARENTLY posted and taken down very quickly by CCP and then began to mass circulation on Chinese social media, erm lol if it’s wrong thank god, if it’s not (probably not) then RIP been nice knowing you all lol

Tweet

Crazy unconfirmed #RUMINT from Chiense social media: Actual #coronavirus numbers purportedly at

Suspected - 154,023
Infected - 78,808
Recovered - 269
Deceased- 24,589

Leaked Image from #china doing rounds on Social Media. Per claims, these real numbers of #coronavirus were leaked a few days ago by accident. The claims remain unconfirmed. From left to right: Suspected/infected/recovered/deceased. #coronaviruschina

TWEET
twitter.com...

TBH, this could have been CCP playing some fear porn propaganda, because the police and now even the public have literally been beating people on the streets not wearing masks, seen literally dozens of these video last night, so a success, have the public beat sense into them?

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Re: viral dormancy... Not disagreeing nor with potential long incubation period. However, seems like out of the Norm for a Flu type virus, unless it's bio-engineered or some mutated freak of nature virus not seen in decades.?
IDK, this virus freaks me out mainly because it causes or leads to pneumonia which is a big killer.

Latest video just in time and addressing a lot of the topics we've been discussing here in this thread.

HIV, HIV meds, people getting sick again, R0 numbers, how to predict who will die from viral pneumonia, etc.

A few days old but thought I would put it up any way.
Seems like we here in Canada have lost the plot!

January 30, 2020 - School district and independent school updated messages:
The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus a global health emergency; however, the B.C. Provincial Health Officer is advising that the risk is low within British Columbia and all necessary precautions are being taken to prevent the spread of infection.

The Ministry of Health has advised and confirmed that individuals returning from affected regions do not need to be isolated at home or kept home from school.

We can assure you that we are in regular communication with the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health and our local health authority to make public health decisions, and to ensure students and employees are kept informed and safe.
We will continue to be in close contact with public health officials and, with that in mind, would ask that you do not make assumptions about the risk of students or staff based on their ethnicity or travel history.

Please check out the HealthLinkBC website – there are some great questions and answers that you can direct your enquiries to - www.healthlinkbc.ca...

Good to know the Gov has our back!

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Excellent find!

It does say that and I can confirm wife says it was on WeChat for a few hours then disappeared.

I’d take these numbers as being much more accurate. They may be low if a few days old.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

LOL

Suspected - 154,023
Infected - 78,808
Recovered - 269
Deceased - 24,589

a reply to: myselfaswell

Oh man, 8 yrs old.

Update on Japan cruise ship: "Among the passengers, samples of 273 people have been taken, ministry officials said. Out of 31 results returned so far, 10 people had tested positive."

Japan Times

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: TritonTaranis

LOL

Suspected - 154,023
Infected - 78,808
Recovered - 269
Deceased - 24,589

Oops