Corona Virus Updates Part 2

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Ok so nearly 4k cases

Still growing by orders of magnitude no slow down ahead

a reply to: Agit8dChop

10 new cases in Japan counting the breaking news on the cruise ship.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: Necrose

2 tenths of a percent increase, actually. Yesterday was 18.79% while today is 19.01%. Based on logic you've used to soothe your thoughts on the severity of this virus, that's an increase in cases, so it is not slowing down.

yup, steady/inconclusive, could be a marginal error, it's really a fraction.... we'll see tomorrow

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
a reply to: AngelsDecay

Multiple people have been diagnosed with coronavirus on a cruise ship off Yokohama in Japan. Ten people have been taken to an area hospital. Once the number of confirmed cases is known, this page will be updated. Two cases have been added in the interim. (Source)

just saw that.. holy cow.. if you're on that ship you'd be nervous as hell!

Thanks for the update. Wouldn't like to be sat on the ship waiting for results and possible death

Update NOTICE

DIAMOND PRINCESS cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan

Hello ATS members
As promised in a few threads I'll post updates about what is going on here in Japan. Well, here is my update as of 9 am Feb. 5, 2020.

273 people as of this morning on the ship are under observation.
31 people on the ship have more then a mild case of coughing .
Of the 31 people , 10 have now been carried off the ship on stretchers to another (I think military ship, small one). This is visible by the helicopter by air this morning 2-5 . They are being taken to a hospital.
(please not that Japan the other day had passed a law on something stating that all non Japanese infected will not be allowed in the country at port of entry, strictly being enforced, but quietly. (it a bit more detailed then that, but you get the idea) So now the question is, if these 273 people that are under observation come down with the virus (current info this morning) and lets say many are of foreign nationals, what the heck is going to happen. The hospitals that can treat this infection are not that many here, but we do have them.

Mask are pretty much sold out here. 80% of the mask come from China. (as mention, holiday in China has been extended therefore it will prevent further worldwide shipments of masks) Hospitals usually carry a very large supply of mask for staff, but many small and private hospitals may only carry a month or two supply of mask. Keep in mind, this affects the food industry here also. Them bento boxes at all stores, well, them employees have to wear masks also.

So we've had a run only on masks. There's no sign of panic here about a run on food or other necessities . But then again, I don't live in Tokyo or other major cities and I don't think if a run on food would go well with the govt. if the TV stations start airing it. I hope not.

I'm really concerned more about riding the trains and subways. Riders are about 50% now wearing mask. Maybe the others don't have access yet to them. Don't know, but if this virus hits the subways, I can really see the .... never mind. I promised I wouldn't think or publish and BS in my threads. I'll do my best with just the facts as I get them.

Stay tune for more updates after 1 pm Tokyo time today. Well, maybe not come to think of it, I'll be in the hospital this afternoon. Dang.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

You’re an idiot. Sorry to break it to you, as you’re clearly unaware. Enjoy.

Ok let's say hypothetically...
Today's increase is going to be 18% and the rate by which the number of confirmed cases increases is declining 1% per day.
Tomorrow 17%, then 16, 15, 14 and in 2 weeks it hits 0%, so 18 days from now the daily increase is going to be 0% = 0 new cases. What then? It has to top out at some point if it's not speeding up, but slowing down.

Instead of saying I'm an idiot, show me what's wrong with my calculations so both of us can be "aware".

EDIT: again, we're using China's officially reported numbers

If places are reaching there testing capacity this is exactly what you would see, a slow gradual decline in the percentage rise every day, eg. 2000 confirmed today goes from 20000 to 22000 that's 10% increase, 2000 tomorrow goes from 22000 to 24000, that's 9% increase or whatever I have a sleeping baby in my arms and cba to do the actual sums but do you get what we are saying here?

I would be interested to see if on that chart you shared showing the declining growth, before it starts to level out, how many physical confirmations that last spike related to, I would expect that was the last genuine increase before testing capacity was reached.

Just think about it logically. The first half of the growth shows pretty random figures which you would expect with something from nature, then suddenly it drops by 1 percent every day. That can't be right can it? The virus just up and decides it's going to slowly taper off in an orderly fashion?

a reply to: Necrose

We do have to be careful with their reporting, what are they classifying the death as etc. America did it during the Spanish Flu outbreak during a peak period with 130,000 deaths in four months. We downgraded it to 80,000 deaths from Spanish Flu and 50,000 deaths from pneumonia.

If epidemiologists are correct, like Dr. Ko from Yale, we are seeing data that is very old and their monitoring mechanisms or public health network could be overloaded.

I've posted it before but these threads move so quickly.



I really hope its burning out, I just got over viral bronchitis, the last thing I want is a similar disease or even worse, some form of pneumonia.

If it is a pandemic, they come in waves, with our luck this could be the first wave and then another surge will occur. The numbers they are releasing do not add up, there should be exponential growth and many more infected at this point. If they are only reporting their max testing ability or allotment numbers than it will stabilize on paper while the disease runs rampant in their country.

We should know in a week or two if it starts spreading over here, it always seems to be wait another week or two to see what is actually happening....

Guys but don't tell me this is an exponential growth, at 24k confirmed cases the next step would be.... ugh... roughly 36k tomorrow and then 53k the day after tomorrow

THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF CASES COULD, PERHAPS, BE GROWING AT THIS RATE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ANY DATA SUGGESTING IT IS THE CASE, THEREFORE WE HAVE TO STICK TO THE CHINESE REPORTED CASES.

a reply to: musicismagic

Is that the same ship from earlier or another one

a reply to: Necrose

Stable within the first 2 weeks sounds a little too good to me. (Conveniently fitting into the containment narrative)

If it turns out to be true, it will be one of the greatest achievements of success in humanity.

🤥

Could be good news thou

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
a reply to: AngelsDecay

Multiple people have been diagnosed with coronavirus on a cruise ship off Yokohama in Japan. Ten people have been taken to an area hospital. Once the number of confirmed cases is known, this page will be updated. Two cases have been added in the interim. (Source)

just saw that.. holy cow.. if you're on that ship you'd be nervous as hell!

Didn't this ship just take a stop somewhere in China along the way? And 10 people caught it from a short stay there?

That should ring alarm bells for how easy this can spread, does anyone know how long it has been between it landing in China and getting to Japan?

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: musicismagic

Is that the same ship from earlier or another one

Yes, it is.

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
a reply to: Necrose

We do have to be careful with their reporting, what are they classifying the death as etc. America did it during the Spanish Flu outbreak during a peak period with 130,000 deaths in four months. We downgraded it to 80,000 deaths from Spanish Flu and 50,000 deaths from pneumonia.

If epidemiologists are correct, like Dr. Ko from Yale, we are seeing data that is very old and their monitoring mechanisms or public health network could be overloaded.

I've posted it before but these threads move so quickly.

I really hope its burning out, I just got over viral bronchitis, the last thing I want is a similar disease or even worse, some form of pneumonia.

If it is a pandemic, they come in waves, with our luck this could be the first wave and then another surge will occur. The numbers they are releasing do not add up, there should be exponential growth and many more infected at this point. If they are only reporting their max testing ability or allotment numbers than it will stabilize on paper while the disease runs rampant in their country.

We should know in a week or two if it starts spreading over here, it always seems to be wait another week or two to see what is actually happening....

Yeah, I agree. Idk why some are overreacting to my posts as I said (on multiple occasions) I'm working with the data provided by the Chinese officials and if we see the international cases starting to grow rapidly, then we should panic or well...not panic, but... "be prepared". Since Wuhan and those cities around Wuhan went into lockdown 10 days ago, we should start seeing the new cases abroad by the end the week. If that is not the case I don't think we should be scared.

originally posted by: Necrose
THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF CASES COULD, PERHAPS, BE GROWING AT THIS RATE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ANY DATA SUGGESTING IT IS THE CASE, THEREFORE WE HAVE TO STICK TO THE CHINESE REPORTED CASES.

...ah no, we really don't. Instead we can (and should) actually use our brains and use a thing called deductive reasoning to come up with a much more accurate presumption of the truth -- which is exactly what many scientists/doctors/professionals, etc, are doing and saying (quite a few articles and videos posted which you so conveniently ignore).

originally posted by: Dem0nc1eaner

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
a reply to: AngelsDecay

Multiple people have been diagnosed with coronavirus on a cruise ship off Yokohama in Japan. Ten people have been taken to an area hospital. Once the number of confirmed cases is known, this page will be updated. Two cases have been added in the interim. (Source)

just saw that.. holy cow.. if you're on that ship you'd be nervous as hell!

Didn't this ship just take a stop somewhere in China along the way? And 10 people caught it from a short stay there?

That should ring alarm bells for how easy this can spread, does anyone know how long it has been between it landing in China and getting to Japan?

The ship left Yokohama, Japan (sorry I don't remember the date) but maybe sometime in January. Then it went to 6 ports. I believe the person who was infected got off in Hong Kong. The ship as I mentioned in another thread last night stopped off in Naha Japan. There people went shopping for 9.5 hours. It then went back to Yokohama. The ship did dock at Vietnam also, other ports (4) I don't know the location as of now.

I don't know if it is possible to follow my threads about Japan, but you might since I'll be posting as I can.
It also looks like now the newspapers won't allow copy and paste.

Also, some 7-11's and McDonald's now have "limited or no access " to Above Top Secret here. I don't know about StarBucks since I don't go there.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
a reply to: Necrose

We do have to be careful with their reporting, what are they classifying the death as etc. America did it during the Spanish Flu outbreak during a peak period with 130,000 deaths in four months. We downgraded it to 80,000 deaths from Spanish Flu and 50,000 deaths from pneumonia.

If epidemiologists are correct, like Dr. Ko from Yale, we are seeing data that is very old and their monitoring mechanisms or public health network could be overloaded.

I've posted it before but these threads move so quickly.

I really hope its burning out, I just got over viral bronchitis, the last thing I want is a similar disease or even worse, some form of pneumonia.

If it is a pandemic, they come in waves, with our luck this could be the first wave and then another surge will occur. The numbers they are releasing do not add up, there should be exponential growth and many more infected at this point. If they are only reporting their max testing ability or allotment numbers than it will stabilize on paper while the disease runs rampant in their country.

We should know in a week or two if it starts spreading over here, it always seems to be wait another week or two to see what is actually happening....

Yeah, I agree. Idk why some are overreacting to my posts as I said (on multiple occasions) I'm working with the data provided by the Chinese officials and if we see the international cases starting to grow rapidly, then we should panic or well...not panic, but... "be prepared". Since Wuhan and those cities around Wuhan went into lockdown 10 days ago, we should start seeing the new cases abroad by the end the week. If that is not the case I don't think we should be scared.

It would be good for someone to plot the rate of increase in just one province of China, outside of Hubei, where testing capacity definitely hasn't been met yet.

originally posted by: musicismagic

originally posted by: Dem0nc1eaner

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
a reply to: AngelsDecay

Multiple people have been diagnosed with coronavirus on a cruise ship off Yokohama in Japan. Ten people have been taken to an area hospital. Once the number of confirmed cases is known, this page will be updated. Two cases have been added in the interim. (Source)

just saw that.. holy cow.. if you're on that ship you'd be nervous as hell!

Didn't this ship just take a stop somewhere in China along the way? And 10 people caught it from a short stay there?

That should ring alarm bells for how easy this can spread, does anyone know how long it has been between it landing in China and getting to Japan?

The ship left Yokohama, Japan (sorry I don't remember the date) but maybe sometime in January. Then it went to 6 ports. I believe the person who was infected got off in Hong Kong. The ship as I mentioned in another thread last night stopped off in Naha Japan. There people went shopping for 9.5 hours. It then went back to Yokohama. The ship did dock at Vietnam also, other ports (4) I don't know the location as of now.

I don't know if it is possible to follow my threads about Japan, but you might since I'll be posting as I can.
It also looks like now the newspapers won't allow copy and paste.

Also, some 7-11's and McDonald's now have "limited or no access " to Above Top Secret here. I don't know about StarBucks since I don't go there.

Hang on, are you saying this was a Japanese cruise ship that started and ended in Japan, and someone picked it up from a brief trip into Hong Kong and has now been able to spread it to 10 people? Where is the link to Wuhan? I didn't think HK even had many cases yet.

originally posted by: Dem0nc1eaner

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
a reply to: Necrose

We do have to be careful with their reporting, what are they classifying the death as etc. America did it during the Spanish Flu outbreak during a peak period with 130,000 deaths in four months. We downgraded it to 80,000 deaths from Spanish Flu and 50,000 deaths from pneumonia.

If epidemiologists are correct, like Dr. Ko from Yale, we are seeing data that is very old and their monitoring mechanisms or public health network could be overloaded.

I've posted it before but these threads move so quickly.

I really hope its burning out, I just got over viral bronchitis, the last thing I want is a similar disease or even worse, some form of pneumonia.

If it is a pandemic, they come in waves, with our luck this could be the first wave and then another surge will occur. The numbers they are releasing do not add up, there should be exponential growth and many more infected at this point. If they are only reporting their max testing ability or allotment numbers than it will stabilize on paper while the disease runs rampant in their country.

We should know in a week or two if it starts spreading over here, it always seems to be wait another week or two to see what is actually happening....

Yeah, I agree. Idk why some are overreacting to my posts as I said (on multiple occasions) I'm working with the data provided by the Chinese officials and if we see the international cases starting to grow rapidly, then we should panic or well...not panic, but... "be prepared". Since Wuhan and those cities around Wuhan went into lockdown 10 days ago, we should start seeing the new cases abroad by the end the week. If that is not the case I don't think we should be scared.

It would be good for someone to plot the rate of increase in just one province of China, outside of Hubei, where testing capacity definitely hasn't been met yet.

Great idea. Since I don't have a clue and am an idiot I'll pass, but it seems @Power_Semii is a good mathematician and understands the said issue properly, I suggest he could do it for us, it's not a big deal for someone who is so clever and aware.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Dem0nc1eaner

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
a reply to: Necrose

We do have to be careful with their reporting, what are they classifying the death as etc. America did it during the Spanish Flu outbreak during a peak period with 130,000 deaths in four months. We downgraded it to 80,000 deaths from Spanish Flu and 50,000 deaths from pneumonia.

If epidemiologists are correct, like Dr. Ko from Yale, we are seeing data that is very old and their monitoring mechanisms or public health network could be overloaded.

I've posted it before but these threads move so quickly.

I really hope its burning out, I just got over viral bronchitis, the last thing I want is a similar disease or even worse, some form of pneumonia.

If it is a pandemic, they come in waves, with our luck this could be the first wave and then another surge will occur. The numbers they are releasing do not add up, there should be exponential growth and many more infected at this point. If they are only reporting their max testing ability or allotment numbers than it will stabilize on paper while the disease runs rampant in their country.

We should know in a week or two if it starts spreading over here, it always seems to be wait another week or two to see what is actually happening....

Yeah, I agree. Idk why some are overreacting to my posts as I said (on multiple occasions) I'm working with the data provided by the Chinese officials and if we see the international cases starting to grow rapidly, then we should panic or well...not panic, but... "be prepared". Since Wuhan and those cities around Wuhan went into lockdown 10 days ago, we should start seeing the new cases abroad by the end the week. If that is not the case I don't think we should be scared.

It would be good for someone to plot the rate of increase in just one province of China, outside of Hubei, where testing capacity definitely hasn't been met yet.

Great idea. Since I don't have a clue and am an idiot I'll pass, but it seems @Power_Semii is a good mathematician and understands the said issue properly, I suggest he could do it for us, it's not a big deal for someone who is so clever and aware.

Come on dude, you aren't doing yourself any favours if you are trying not to attract arseholes.

a reply to: Necrose

Don't worry. I got you covered - actual numbers from China. The day before yesterday up to 17,205 from 14,380 = 20% increase Yesterday up to 20,438 from 17,205 = 19% increase Today 23,865 up from 20,438 = 17% increase thus far

When should we expect quarantine effect to kick in ? I think we still run on infection number pre-quarantine,mbecause of the incubation delay....