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originally posted by: Necrose
originally posted by: Power_Semi
Just to say one more thing then I'm off to do some work.
muzzle flash seems to be acting like a totally normal human being, that is he's experiencing the world lineraly - since we everything change in a linear fashion.
The problem is that this is not linear it is exponential.
Therefore I recommend that everyone watch this video - it is not called "the most important video you will ever see" for nothing, with the sub name of "Mankinds greatest shortcoming is his inability to understand the exponential function".
It is particularly pertinent to the current situation. Of course muzzle flash will say he's a dumb ass who doesn't know what he's talking about, but hey ho.
Filmed at a lecture by the late, great Prof Albert Bartlett it explains everything you need to know.
And since it was filmed years ago you can check his predictions with reality today.
I once had the honour of having a conversation with Prof Bartlett before his passing, and the topic was population growth.
My question to him was "if human population carries on at the same rate then what do you see happening?"
His answer (in a nutshell) - "it won't - something will happen to stop it."
You can see what those things might be in his lecture.
This coronavirus might be it.
I love Prof Bartlett and his keynotes, but since we don't have any other data than the official data China reports, we have to work with those... the increase is NOT exponential as we would be well past 250K infected by now, it's not even linear, it's slowing down.
originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: tennisdawg
thanks for the update and additional context TennisDawg!
originally posted by: angelchemuel
a reply to: TheAMEDDDoc
So would I be right in saying, broadly speaking, that something that could get to the bone marrow and stabilise blood production to fight the virus and something that would help to keep the lungs mucous free and something that would directly attack the protein 'covering' of the viral cell would give you a fighting chance of maybe preventing, or at least help the body fight off the infection at early onset or even during the illness?
Thank you
Rainbows
Jane
A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν pan "all" and δῆμος demos "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal flu. Throughout history, there have been a number of pandemics, such as smallpox and tuberculosis. One of the most devastating pandemics was the Black Death, which killed an estimated 100 million people in the 14th century. Some recent pandemics include: HIV, Spanish flu, 2009 flu pandemic and H1N1.
Coronavirus Targeting 1.14 million Infections, 24,000 Deaths by End February - Global Pandemic Day 57
Coronavirus Pandemic Trend Forecast My analysis of 28th Jan concluded forecast expectations for the virus to spread exponentially first across China and then across the world to target 1 million infections by the end of February resulting in 35,000 deaths.
Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 57 - 3rd Feb 2020 Update The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 3rd of Feb 2020 vs actual:
Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 57 - 3rd Feb 2020 Update The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 3rd of Feb 2020 vs actual: Infections Deaths Forecast for 1st Feb 17868 553 Actual - 1st Feb 20650 427 % Diff 115% 77% Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would increase to 1.15 million, whilst the number of deaths would fall to 23,896. So the latest data implies a wider spread but a lower mortality rate. However, these are still the very early days of the spread of the Coronavirus, especially given that there are large susceptible populations groups with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India that announced it's first infection Friday where outbreaks could soon overwhelm heathcare systems. Also that a vaccine is still a good 4 months away so far too late to have any impact on this pandemic. Meanwhile this is what China and Asia's infections map currently looks like, which in my opinion grossly under estimates the number of infected, hence why the numbers are increasing exponentially. If I had to guess a number, I would say that MORE than 200,000 are infected as of today.
originally posted by: angelchemuel
a reply to: Necrose
Thank you for your reply. Do you have a medical/scientific background if you don't mind me asking please?
Rainbows
Jane