Corona Virus Updates Part 2

Flu: R0 of 1.4 to 1.6 - Fatality rate of 0.095%

Corona virus: R0 of 4.08 - Fatality rate of 6.5%

How is the Corona virus not -considerably- worse than influenza?

a reply to: fleabit

Fatality rate is only around 2% at present.

thewuhanvirus.com...

newsobservatory.com...

Sudan announces 4 students in china have coronavirus

originally posted by: muzzleflash

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: muzzleflash

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: muzzleflash

Pure speculation here( should change my nick😉) but if China was given a s# trade deal by trump would shutting down all manufacture not cripple America too? In a no win scenario do you think that might be the goal of this? - pure conjecture and speculation on that one though🤷🏽‍♂️

It will affect the entire world's economy dramatically if it keeps going for a few more weeks.
We could enter a recession far deeper than the 2008 fiasco.

We simply need to lift the quarantine and have everyone go back to their normal lives. That's the only viable solution.

A few thousand deaths is a small price to pay for saving the economy, because that economy keeps the 7 billion of us fed and alive. Without it (a good economy) most of us will not survive. They gotta end the quarantine asap.

Theoretically however, it is plausible that Europe and the US can survive the loss of China's manufacturing and cheap labor. We will need to change our habits and alter our economic policies however to mitigate all of the problems. It would be very difficult and challenging, and we would have to claw our way out of a very deep recession, but it is doable and we could survive without them. Our population can't keep exploding though, and we can't keep borrowing money to pay for everything either.

So yes we can overcome the worst case scenario (complete economic collapse), but it will be a very difficult and challenging road. China's predicament is far worse than ours however, they could go into revolution and end up in complete chaos.

That's why I am baffled by their decision to call the biggest quarantine in history after the (mild) virus was already global. Why would they shoot themselves in both feet?

Wow President Xi is an idiot.

I bet it hasn't even occured to him that quarantining practically the entire country will effect the economy.

I'm going to ring him up right now and tell him muzzle flash says he's a big dumb ass and muzzle flash says he needs to end the quarantine right now because muzzle flash says it's no worse than a cold and muzzle flash says hardly anyone dies and muzzle flash clearly knows far better than the actual people on the ground in China.

Thanks muzzle flash, you've just saved the world with your amazing insight and knowledge.

Hip hip hussar.

My posts are getting through, I won an ad hominem reply!

To respond so condescendingly to me without being able to combat the points I'm making is sort of an admission that I gotcha. You just dislike me for challenging your preconceived notions and paranoia.

That's ok though, I'm not posting in here challenging you guys "to be the cool guy". That's lame anyways. I'm willing to be the guy none of you can stand if that's the price I gotta pay to tell you the TRUTH. I will always choose the TRUTH over any persons opinion of me.

Shoot the messenger all you want, I'm feeling bullet proof today.
Don't care what anyone thinks of me, I only care about the TRUTH.

I'm not countering your specific points (such as they are - they mainly consist of "this is no worse than the cold because I say so") because:

a) I can't be bothered;
b) You're not listening nor willing to contemplate any opinion other than your own erroneous one;
c) I've already done my own research, and maths, and observation of what's going on and it's clear - this is FAR worse than ANY of the authorities will have you believe;

The idea you have in your head that you - a keyboard warrior have it all figured out, and that the Chinese are idiots for shutting down cities and locking people in their apartments and building new hospitals because they're emotional fools who are susceptible to knee jerk reactions for no good reason.

I think you have the 2 sides of the equation mixed up with regards to who knows what they're doing and who doesn't have a clue.

originally posted by: ARM1968
Ignore him, has to be a troll or one of the greatest fools I have ever inadvertently stumbled across. Might be on someone’s payroll possibly, but his true colours are now fairly evident. Didn’t take long really. a reply to: Power_Semi

I was just telling you the truth as I see it that you're wrong.
Just because I disagree with you doesn't make me a shill for the CIA or whatever.

I based my initial determination off 20+years of reading biochem and molecbio info, studying diseases, etc. I'm not the brightest bulb but going so far as to call me "one of the greatest fools" is pretty harsh just for disagreeing with you.

I'd say that anyone who judges another man's virtue and value based entirely on a disagreement that they had with them on the Internet one day over abstract geopolitical stuff - is the real fool.

We are suppose to be debating the topic anyways, not ME.

originally posted by: fleabit
Flu: R0 of 1.4 to 1.6 - Fatality rate of 0.095%

Corona virus: R0 of 4.08 - Fatality rate of 6.5%

How is the Corona virus not -considerably- worse than influenza?

Because muzzle flash says so.

I just got off the phone to the WHO they're going to tell China to end the quarantine immediately.

a reply to: blackrabbit1

At the moment, as others have said the currently infected can go either way, you can’t assign a predicted value based on what is currently as not enough info is available that’s just fear mongering so far it is what it is, 400(ish dead) and 6-700 recovered with 21000 ( ish) infected you can not assign a dead or recovers value to those ( unless you know something we don’t!), to do so is to assume x% will die and x will recover and as we all know when you assume “you make an ass out of u and me”(as the saying goes!)

originally posted by: Power_Semi
www.dailymail.co.uk...

Unnamed source + MSM outlet = TOTAL BS
No proof no substantiation nothing!

Why do you people believe in this garbage?

a reply to: Power_Semi

Lol 😂😂😂

originally posted by: fleabit
Flu: R0 of 1.4 to 1.6 - Fatality rate of 0.095%

Corona virus: R0 of 4.08 - Fatality rate of 6.5%

How is the Corona virus not -considerably- worse than influenza?

the R0 value for nCov-2019 is changing as we have new data hour-by-hour, so we don't actually know if it is something like an R0 of 2.5 or 4.5 The difference between an R0 of 0.5 to 1.5, or 2.5 to 4.5 is a world of difference in terms of how transmissible it could be.

As we have more data that R0 value should be more accurate but right now, basing it off of primarily the China cases we have to assume it will likely change once there's more data...

a reply to: Adphil28

True, I was quoting Current stats.My point was to rebut fleabits claim of 6.5%, which is way over current estimates.

a reply to: muzzleflash

Daliymail lol, reliable as the ccp and who and msn combined right there

Hey new here . My head hurts because this thing doesn’t make sense .i need things to make sense ! Just wondering if anyone has thought maybe China is actually quarantining itself from the world. Maybe they have a time released bioweapon.is that possible? I know we can have time release medicine/vitamins.
I’ve read other articles in which they have far more deaths and infections from other things but don’t shut down. (I don’t know how to add them )
It’s just my tin foil theory .

a reply to: blackrabbit1

Agreed

a reply to: muzzleflash

If you listen to the WHO briefing that just happened a little while ago you would know that even THEY don't know what we're dealing with. They are JUST NOW sending a team of experts to China and they clearly say they don't have enough data. Even with the cases outside of China they only have 38% of the reports back so even outside of China they don't have enough information. It's on YouTube and was just live streamed a short time ago. I don't know the correct way to post links since I haven't been on here in a really long time. The first 15 minutes is just them getting seated. He does say not to panic but it's reasonable to be worried.

www.youtube.com...

originally posted by: blackrabbit1
a reply to: fleabit

Fatality rate is only around 2% at present.

thewuhanvirus.com...

Will have to look, but many of those estimates are off because they are not going off a correct timeline. Fatality rate should not be based on today.

This looks like it was published today. I didn't see if but I might of missed it.
Wuhan Institute Virology

Recently, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences / National Institute of Biosafety and the National Academy of Military Medical Research Institute of Emergency Medicine for Prevention and Control of Drugs have jointly conducted research on the screening of 2019 new coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV ) drugs. Important progress. Relevant research results to "Remdesivir and chloroquine Effectively INHIBIT at The Recently Logs in emerged Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro " ( "Reed Western Wei and chloroquine phosphate can inhibit the in vitro novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV )") was published In Cell Research, a well-known international academic journal with independent intellectual property rights in China .

 

The study showed that on Vero E6 cells, half the effective concentration of Remdesivir (GS-5734) for 2019-nCoV EC 50 = 0.77 u M (micromoles per liter) , the selection index SI is greater than 129; chloroquine phosphate (Chloroquine) EC 50 = 1.13 u M , SI is greater than 88, indicating that the two drugs can effectively inhibit 2019-nCoV infection at the cellular level, and their role in the human body has yet to be clinically verified.

Remdesivir (GS-5734) is a nucleoside analogue. Phase II and III clinical studies on Ebola hemorrhagic fever are currently being conducted in the DRC. Chloroquine phosphate has been used in the treatment of malaria since the 1940s and later in rheumatoid arthritis. The preliminary results of the above two drugs at the cellular level to effectively inhibit 2019 new coronavirus infection have previously been reported to the national, provincial and municipal relevant departments in various forms. In order to serve the prevention and control of the epidemic, the partners of the two partners have jointly stated that among the above-mentioned drugs with anti-coronavirus effect in 2019, we do not apply for related patents for chloroquine phosphate, which has been marketed in China and can fully realize independent supply. The enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation; for the drug Radexivir that has not yet been marketed in China and has intellectual property barriers, we applied for a Chinese invention patent on January 21 in accordance with international practice and from the perspective of protecting national interests Resistance to new coronaviruses in 2019), and will enter major countries around the world through the PCT (Patent Cooperation Agreement) approach. If relevant foreign companies intend to contribute to the prevention and control of China's epidemic, we both agree that if the state needs it, we will not require the implementation of the rights claimed by the patent for the time being, and we hope to work with foreign pharmaceutical companies to minimize the impact of epidemic prevention and control. force.

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: blackrabbit1

At the moment, as others have said the currently infected can go either way, you can’t assign a predicted value based on what is currently as not enough info is available that’s just fear mongering so far it is what it is, 400(ish dead) and 6-700 recovered with 21000 ( ish) infected you can not assign a dead or recovers value to those ( unless you know something we don’t!), to do so is to assume x% will die and x will recover and as we all know when you assume “you make an ass out of u and me”(as the saying goes!)

There are umpteen videos of bodies all over the place, and they're turning gymnasiums into temporary hospitals now as well.

Now, if you watch the "8 bodies in 5 minutes" video where the guy goes into a hospital and sees 8 bodies in 5 minutes - you might say "well it's a hospital, people die all of the time".

Yes they do, but what they don't usually do is take all of those bodies and pile them up in the back of a minibus to take them straight for burning.

The straight for burning means it's highly contageous, and the fact they're using mini buses and vans means they are short of resources for transporting bodies - which means a lot of people are dying.

I think this is a case of DARA - Denial, Anger, Realisation, Acceptance.

Some people are (despite the obvious signs) so far in denial - "it isn't as bad as they're saying, the media are creating a panic, it couldn't happen here because we're better/cleaner/more hygenic/have better healthcare than the Chinese".

Next they'll be angry - "how could they let this happen, the govt should have done more, the MSM should have warned us" (despite them right now saying it's all an over inflated pile of horse manure and the quarantine should be ended immediately).

Then they'll hit realisation at the same time 99.9% of the rest of the population do, and they'll find themselves fighting other people in the store for the last tin of beans.

Then they'll accept they're f****d because they were so cock sure of their own superiority that they got caught with their trousers down.

I hope it will not start in mexico

Uber driver drove around with infected chineese tourist in Mexico City
BBC

originally posted by: fleabit

Well since all available medical literature and the expert assessments of the WHO indicates that #2 isn't even a viable option, I guess #1 is the most likely answer by default.

So...

An available expert assessment

Again.. their findings are quite a bit worse than the flu. Unless you are dismissing their findings for some reason.

It says right there on the top:

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

So why are you using this to guide you? It is incomplete and preliminary, and needs to be reviewed.
The information within that document doesn't necessarily tell us much either. It's a good start though. What else can you find? Keep digging.