Corona Virus Updates Part 2

Could it just be a novel flu and nothing more with the real reasons for the deaths being something more sinister like dissent control, population control or even economic control?

I just feel, naively, that if this was as bad as it appears to be in China we'd of seen more cases outside of the mainland. Nearly 400 pages of worry and theorycraft have proved the threat of a pandemic is a very convincing tactic for distraction. That even having such a thought gives me pangs of guilt and sorrow for the suffering of the Chinese is proof of that..

Back to reality, I'm glad this appears to be slower in spreading in other countries then first advertised here. A week or two more before I'm truly convinced of that however.

Panyu District of Guangzhou begging businesses to stay on lockdown.

Twitter

I have 3 friends in that district who have confirmed this. There’s about 1 million ppl in that area, maybe 2 million. It used to be a small city and then it was annexed to Guangzhou by CCP decree.

Seems that there’s arguments across country about reopening businesses. My old company has major internal strife with staff in South wanting to follow govt orders to stay home until Feb 29. The C suite buttheads want staff back on Feb 14. This is probably occurring across China.

originally posted by: Fowlerstoad
a reply to: tanstaafl

Yeah, probably not reliable then. But why is this guy posting this sort of hysteria-provoking stuff?

Not sure - but I think he sells a bunch of stuff? Don't care enough to go look...

Wikipedia isn't very reliable either, I might add (they certainly have their own bias).

Agreed, but it can still be useful resource as a starting point or a quick confirmation of something you already suspect (his name rang a loud bell for me)...

a reply to: tanstaafl

Says, looking at the “12” in USA for the last week

a reply to: Fowlerstoad

Edit: Ok, read other comments about the source of this news, disregard my post, sorry.

The page is there caught video shows china bulldozing piles of body bags into giant pit , I can see it. Maybe they changed the URL after you copy pasted it. But is it true? I have no doubt in my mind that a government (any) can/will do this. But there is no proof.

(RANT, semi off topic) However, as I said a few days ago, Humans Rights Watch SHOULD start an investigation on China. Too bad the "High commissioner" is an inept and tries to protect left wing governments (we know her well, she was our president and people had to beg and start nsulting her to send a team to Venezuela, but when SHTF in Chile, she intermediately sent a team, she has zero credibility)... Anyways, call me an extremist if you guys want, but my trust in all governments, organizations and "official media" is zero, zip, cero, nada, nothing. So I still wouldn't believe them.(/RANT)

a reply to: redpassion

When we have WHO (Wuhan Health Office) watching over us surely there couldn’t be human rights abuses!?!?

In case anyone else out there is working on models. I found this data very useful today.

www.chp.gov.hk...

Hong Kong gives breakdown of imported confirmed cases, and local confirmed cases. They have others, but I think if they aren't confirmed imported then they should be considered local.

The graph they show is a mess if you ask me. I don't know what you're supposed to gather from that so I did a few myself.

This data is particularly useful because you can remove imported cases from the data which muddies the water and hinders you seeing the expected exponential growth. Here's an example of a graph I've made from that data:



From this you can see that confirmed local transmission started a week after the first confirmed imported case. This may indicate that the UK for example is due to start seeing local transmission about now, though HK likely had many more imported cases (detected or not) and so this lag may be greater in places like the UK. Hopefully lagging indefinitely...

Isolating for local transmission only, removes a lot of interference and allows good exponential fit (R^2 of 0.9928). This shows a doubling of cumulative confirmed local transmissions every 2.8 days. This is alarmingly quick, though may be expected higher in dense populations such as big cities, and could be expected to slow as cross-infection becomes more likely and more precautions are taken, i.e. R0 would decrease.

At the very least I found it helps see through the interference we see in other countries where most cases are imported so far, and will help visualise and account for this in models as local transmissions start coming through.

Long time lurker but never joined until now. Got a simple question. I'm 5ft 19inches tall or, for the rest of you, 6ft 7. Does my height reduce my exposure zone and, if so, the shorter one is the greater the risk of catching a virus?

a reply to: Cmajlz

Lol 5ft 19” hahaha

originally posted by: Cmajlz
Long time lurker but never joined until now. Got a simple question. I'm 5ft 19inches tall or, for the rest of you, 6ft 7. Does my height reduce my exposure zone and, if so, the shorter one is the greater the risk of catching a virus?

Hah. Your height might reduce your exposure to airlaunched virus, but your giant hands will touch twice as much surface area as most, lol. Not to mention you probably have larger nostrils. Probably a wash. This thread needs more of this kind of stuff.

Let me get back on track. This may be the wrong place for this but here it goes. Why haven't the press in China and Russia blame the US for the release of the virus? Also, could it be the Chinese government is wanting their citizens to get an immunity from a much worse virus that will escape in the not to distance future that will affect everyone else?

a reply to: Cmajlz

This report is the product of a collaboration between a retired professional scientist with 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis who helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools, and a former NSA counterterrorism analyst. It considers whether the Wuhan Strain of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is the result of naturally emergent mutations against the possibility that it may be a bio-engineered strain meant for defensive immunotherapy protocols that was released into the public, most likely by accident since China’s rate of occupational accidents is about ten-times higher than America’s, and some twenty-times more than Europe’s – the only other regions with high-level virology labs.

Report

www.bbc.com...

The World Dream was put in quarantine on Wednesday after it emerged that three passengers who had sailed on a previous voyage were later found to have contracted the virus. Chief port health officer Leng Yiu-Hong said all crew members some 1,800 people had tested negative for coronavirus, and that everyone would be allowed to disembark without the need to self-quarantine after leaving.

This sounds really stupid to do, or am I just worrying too much?

originally posted by: Auramancer
Could it just be a novel flu and nothing more with the real reasons for the deaths being something more sinister like dissent control, population control or even economic control?

I just feel, naively, that if this was as bad as it appears to be in China we'd of seen more cases outside of the mainland. Nearly 400 pages of worry and theorycraft have proved the threat of a pandemic is a very convincing tactic for distraction. That even having such a thought gives me pangs of guilt and sorrow for the suffering of the Chinese is proof of that..

Back to reality, I'm glad this appears to be slower in spreading in other countries then first advertised here. A week or two more before I'm truly convinced of that however.

I posted a theory about this Here

I'm wondering if they want to create a global market crash so that they can buy stock at very a low price and have more power and influence. This has been done (if this is true: Banksters and Warmongers ) but not at this scale, that I know of...

If the virus doesn't affect the rest of the world as it has in China, it could be a possibility. Also it may be that the rest of the world had the knowledge and was able to fight the virus a much better way and we are all just over thinking it. I''ll give it ± 2 weeks more.

However I'll say this, if the virus isn't that bad for the rest of the world, a lot of conspiracies will come out of this. From China saying the truth and only over reacting (yea, right xD) all the way to using it as an excuse to kill it's civilians or create a global economic recession for who knows what end, because people will take note and know not have their industries mainly in 1 country and will start investing elsewhere. That will not be good to China. It would back fire drastically for them.

Hi, just joined as I have almost RTFT and wanted to contribute!
I've been following it from the start and still not sure what to make of it all except I don't trust the numbers out of China as clearly they have reached max capacity in terms of testing kits and medical staff able to do the testing per day. Also the worrying videos coming out of China from the lockdown zones are something I've never seen before.
Anyway, a friend sent me this and I hadn't seen it discussed on here and thought I would share - it's from the John Hopkins Center and outlines a sort of 'how to' in response to a never before seen pandemic.
It's pretty scary and some of the things seen in later weeks such as quarantine and travel bans are already being seen now!
Worth a share I thought
www.centerforhealthsecurity.org...

Thanks. Finally a scientific report I can understand. I'll finish reading this evening. a reply to: 1questioner

originally posted by: whatisanameanyway

originally posted by: tlearyus
The John Hopkins data is showing only 400 new infections today.

It seems that they use UTC time for the graph. It is only 6.5 hours into "Today" when you posted this, so that's 400 reported in that time, not 400 over the last 24 hours.

According to this graph it's slowing down considerably now, or is this China containing the truth?

Distribution of coronavirus