Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: Pommer89
I keep thinking about the incubation period, anyone know source of where it is first mentioned about 14day period. I just cant see it or we would of seen a another wave of infections outside china by now, it just seems a trickle the more and more I think about maybe china has done enough to quarentine this. I wish ccp were more open with the numbers.

Yeah, the incubation period has been on my mind too. Before I knew about this coronavirus problem, I ordered an endoscope from wish.com that showed up on 01-13-2020. Came directly from China, shipped on 01-04-2020. So when I combine the incubation period with that 28 day possible time period for the virus to live outside a host, well, I guess I am feeling a bit nervous about it. Is my throat feeling like it is getting sore? Do I feel like I have a headache? Am I coughing more than normal... **cough**.........

Well, gee, now I DO have a headache.

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: kwakakev
Bodies piling up, Hubei Province funeral home workers pushed to near collapse as cremation centers burn HUNDREDS of bodies per day

A bombshell story published in Chinese by Liberty Times Net reveals that just one funeral home is “cremating 316 bodies per day” as its workers are driven to total exhaustion with just two hours of sleep per day.

Note that the 316 bodies per day is from just one funeral home. That’s nowhere near the actual total of bodies being cremated in the region, of course. Another funeral home in the region, the “Hankou Funeral Home,” is documented to have the capacity to cremate 576 bodies per day all by itself.

We do not yet know how many cremation centers are operating in the Hubei Province, where the Wuhan city resides, but just from these two, the cremation capacity is nearly 900 bodies per day, and even then the bodies are piling up. From these facts we can deduce that the actual death rate in the region most likely exceeds 900 bodies per day.

To get a more accurate death toll, looking at what is exactly happening at the crematoriums is a good start.

From a past posts, it was estimated that about 200 bodies a day where cremated on an average day for a city the size of Wuhan, previous to the infection. Wuhan has about 5 to 7 main crematoriums from recollection. So could be looking at 2000-3000 deaths per day as a rough estimate at this stage. Compared to the recovery rate it leaves about 10% of survival. With something this deadly it makes sense to shut down a city.

I know there is a lot of debate and uncertainty of just what the fatality rate actually is. For now I am personally preparing myself for something around the 50% rate with all that I have seen. 15% is possible and a low mark for now, 90% is also possibility for the high end. Access to good support, medication and care seams to help. It is going to take a while for all the long term data to come in and get verified. For now the 2% figure is about as good as Adam Schiff.

One thing to add when looking at the crematorium data is how all burials are now banned from what I can gather. This will add some workload to to crematorium from other causes of death. Trying to get a rough idea to it all.

If the survival rate is dismal, does anyone really think that China will wait until a victim has actually expired before wanting to get rid of them? They will likely just be considered as active sources of infection, and treated as such. People are just an expendable resource to China, and treated as such. IMHO.

It’s a stretch, even for the CCP, but get rid of the infected as rapidly as you can and you cut the sources of infection drastically. Faced with a country wide catastrophe and continued economic shutdown, they might see it as the only real option. Truly terrible thought, but that might be what’s happening.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: tanstaafl

It's also possible that there are measures China is taking to contain this that may be making it worse.

I've also speculated that there may be a factor in China exacerbating this, something that does not exist in other places, like the poor air quality, the higher number of smokers in China, or something similar.

China used weather modification to control the rain during the Olympics. Think that may have something to do with this? (Or is that a 'laugh out loud, pat on the head now go away' theory?)

a reply to: new_here

Oh no! 3 ft ...

All right, stop it.

Everyone get a ruler, just a standard 12" ruler. That is 1 foot. Lay it end to end 3 times. That is 3 feet. That's your danger zone.

No one has said since the start that this thing cannot pass through close contact transmission via the air. What is going on is that you are likely getting infected sputum, it is most likely to happen through coughs and sneezes.

What goes up, must come down. It will not defy gravity and just hang out in the air. If it did that, everywhere in the world would literally be on fire with this thing right now. There would be no stopping it. The man in Washington would have infected dozens, but it seems he infected *NO ONE*. The lady in Illinois would have gotten more than just her husband, limited movement or not.

Those people would have literally infected dozens more and so on and so forth. By now, there would be massive outbreaks raging in the upper midwest and Pacific Northwest.

You are more likely to catch it from someone who has it touching a surface with their nasty hands and then you do it.

This thing still spreads more like the common cold and flu than anything else, and those are plenty bad enough, and yes, they do spread through the air within close proximity which is why you tend to share them with your family once one of you brings it home.

That's not how this disease works.

a reply to: texasgirl

Who knows?

I do know that China is an environmental disaster area in many senses of the word. Communist regimes tend to not care so much for their environment when it gets in the way of progress.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: new_here

Oh no! 3 ft ...

All right, stop it.

Everyone get a ruler, just a standard 12" ruler. That is 1 foot. Lay it end to end 3 times. That is 3 feet. That's your danger zone.

No one has said since the start that this thing cannot pass through close contact transmission via the air. What is going on is that you are likely getting infected sputum, it is most likely to happen through coughs and sneezes.

What goes up, must come down. It will not defy gravity and just hang out in the air. If it did that, everywhere in the world would literally be on fire with this thing right now. There would be no stopping it. The man in Washington would have infected dozens, but it seems he infected *NO ONE*. The lady in Illinois would have gotten more than just her husband, limited movement or not.

Those people would have literally infected dozens more and so on and so forth. By now, there would be massive outbreaks raging in the upper midwest and Pacific Northwest.

You are more likely to catch it from someone who has it touching a surface with their nasty hands and then you do it.

This thing still spreads more like the common cold and flu than anything else, and those are plenty bad enough, and yes, they do spread through the air within close proximity which is why you tend to share them with your family once one of you brings it home.

That's not how this disease works.

This was true up until about 2 hours ago with Chinese officials confirming it is now airborne!
www.news.com.au...

a reply to: Benjicleo

Re-read what I wrote. I clearly said it was airborne. I have never, ever said otherwise. But there are degrees of airborne. Even Ebola is airborne to a limited degree. What makes this one dangerous is that it can survive on surfaces. Someone with it contaminates a surface and everyone after who touches that surface and then their eyes, nose, mouth ... will be at high risk.

The quote I was reacting to said 3 feet was the approximate danger zone. This is more or less what I've been going with all along.

Measure it out. It's not that big a zone.

You protect against it by avoiding being packed in with other people. Avoid close contact. Don't go to crowded spaces, and if you must, take measures against being breathed on by those who will be within 3 ft of you.

Had to look this up for another discussion, thought it might be appropriate here as well:

Travelers from China to the United States, 2019-nCoV | CDC

Excerpt ...

American citizens, lawful permanent residents, and their families who have been in China in the past 14 days will be allowed to enter the United States, but will be redirected to one of 11 airports to undergo health screening. Depending on their health and travel history, they will have some level of restrictions on their movements for 14 days from the time they left China.

.

Brit not allowed to board evacuee plane from Wuhan

Poor guy.. here the thought of being trapped out there.. whether Brit or chinese or any nationality :-(

Update on the possible case in Ithaca NY. One student has now tested negative. A second student is now being tested.

wskg.org... gative-coronavirus-a-second-is-being-tested/

Not that testing negative means much, as it seems now the tests are only reliable about 50% of the time.

a reply to: MrRCflying

I'd be more confident in tests done outside China and other countries stressed by this thing.

Presumably, the CDC has technicians who are experienced with the test in question and the best facilities and equipment for it. Remember, the problem with results lies less with the test and more with how it's run -- test error.

a reply to: ketsuko

which means it can float a long distance through the air and cause infection later when it is breathed in.

direct quote from news articel i linked. "long distances" arent usually referred to as 3 feet

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: Pommer89
I keep thinking about the incubation period, anyone know source of where it is first mentioned about 14day period. I just cant see it or we would of seen a another wave of infections outside china by now, it just seems a trickle the more and more I think about maybe china has done enough to quarentine this. I wish ccp were more open with the numbers.

Yeah, the incubation period has been on my mind too. Before I knew about this coronavirus problem, I ordered an endoscope from wish.com that showed up on 01-13-2020. Came directly from China, shipped on 01-04-2020. So when I combine the incubation period with that 28 day possible time period for the virus to live outside a host, well, I guess I am feeling a bit nervous about it. Is my throat feeling like it is getting sore? Do I feel like I have a headache? Am I coughing more than normal... **cough**.........

Well, gee, now I DO have a headache.

Best of luck to you & yours, Rich.

I got a package via Amazon the other day ... direct from China. It went outside to the garage where it will remain for a couple months (or more - just in case). I don't need anything that badly in my life right now.

What is the most airborne transmissible virus know to man? and why?
Can someone please answer the about question.
Thanks.

a reply to: Benjicleo

If it spread that easily through aerosol means and stayed in the air for 20 minutes and for long distances ... it would be causing massive outbreaks in the US. There is no avoiding it. We have 12 cases and those started to be discovered in January, not late January, early January.

There would be actual outbreaks of more cases ongoing right now in Washington and Illinois. Where are they?

There would be a massive outbreak in Germany, not a chain of cases. The man who is testing positive and quarantined with four other people on the Canary Islands would have infected them by now. Why hasn't that happened?

Either China has a completely different bug than the rest of the world, or else this is in isolated instances under the perfect conditions that this *can* happen, but it normally does not.

I realize the current situation is a major concern....

But the below data helps to put corona-virus in perspective..

All are airbone virus similar to corona

Whooping cough (pertussis) This respiratory illness causes swelling of the airways that results in a persistent hacking cough. It’s at the height of contagiousness for about two weeks after the coughing starts. Worldwide, there are about 16 million Trusted Source cases of whooping cough every year resulting in 195,000 deaths. In 2014Trusted Source, there were 32,971 reported cases in the United States.

Tuberculosis (TB) TB, also known as consumption, is an airborne disease, but this bacterial infection doesn’t spread easily. You generally have to be in close contact with an infected person for a long time. You can be infected without becoming ill or infecting others. About 2.5 billion people worldwide are infected with TB. Most aren’t sick. About 9.6 million people worldwide have active TB.

Measles is a leading cause of death among children worldwide and was responsible for 134,200 deathsTrusted Source in 2015. It is estimated that the measles vaccine prevented 20.3 million deaths from 2000 to 2015. The disease is less common in the United States, and occurs mostly in people who haven’t been vaccinated. There were 667 casesTrusted Source reported in 2014 and 188 in 2015

www.healthline.com...

a reply to: EnhancedInterrogator

It’s a combination of these groups;

Police
Neighborhood CCP committee members
Chengguan (city level semi-official unarmed security gangs) (wife can explain to you)
Neighborhood watch people (seen in videos with red armbands)

I’ve been saying Shanghai is on lockdown, your evidence supports this and matches friends and family of ours across China who are in lockdown.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: new_here

Oh no! 3 ft ...

All right, stop it.

Everyone get a ruler, just a standard 12" ruler. That is 1 foot. Lay it end to end 3 times. That is 3 feet. That's your danger zone.

No one has said since the start that this thing cannot pass through close contact transmission via the air. What is going on is that you are likely getting infected sputum, it is most likely to happen through coughs and sneezes.

What goes up, must come down. It will not defy gravity and just hang out in the air. If it did that, everywhere in the world would literally be on fire with this thing right now. There would be no stopping it. The man in Washington would have infected dozens, but it seems he infected *NO ONE*. The lady in Illinois would have gotten more than just her husband, limited movement or not.

Those people would have literally infected dozens more and so on and so forth. By now, there would be massive outbreaks raging in the upper midwest and Pacific Northwest.

You are more likely to catch it from someone who has it touching a surface with their nasty hands and then you do it.

This thing still spreads more like the common cold and flu than anything else, and those are plenty bad enough, and yes, they do spread through the air within close proximity which is why you tend to share them with your family once one of you brings it home.

That's not how this disease works.

there are way too many factors like airflow to consider to just say "3 ft and you're mostly safe". that's not how it works.

One should note that “aerosol” is essentially a relative and not an absolute term. A larger droplet can remain airborne for longer if ambient airflows can sustain this suspension for longer, e.g. in some strong cross-flow or natural ventilation environments, where ventilation-induced airflows can propagate suspended pathogens effectively enough to cause infection at a considerable distance away from the source.

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com...

Many airborne virus transmission studies have focused on indoor environments, such as hospitals, laboratories, schools, and animal husbandry facilities. The capacity for transmission is much greater in these environments, due to issues such as recirculated air, confined space, and proximity to a viral source. It was also believed that human and animal viruses were unlikely to spread in an outdoor environment because of the many inactivation factors and the huge potential for dilution. However, studies in the past two decades have proven the long-distance transmission of animal viruses (e.g., foot-and-mouth disease virus and pseudorabies virus) that have caused outbreaks of infection hundreds of kilometers downwind. Human enteric viruses have been detected up to 100 m downwind from irrigation sprinklers.

www.sciencedirect.com...

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Benjicleo
There would be actual outbreaks of more cases ongoing right now in Washington and Illinois. Where are they?

incubation period.

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Benjicleo
There would be actual outbreaks of more cases ongoing right now in Washington and Illinois. Where are they?

incubation period.

Regarding the tests done by Australia, Canary Islands, etc. it is believed to have an incubation period of 3-14 days, with the average being 6 before symptoms show.

It's been a very long time, yet cases outside of China with the exception of particular circumstances (such as the Japanese cruiser) remain very rare and are not multiplying.

It's a virus that has been in circulation since november 2019 in one of the most populated areas of China with a lot of factories and production chains, not to mention travel in and out of it.
Yet 99.1% of cases are within China, even with its long incubation period and without assuming it can be infectious before symptoms show... where are the outbreaks everywhere else?

Something doesn't add up, the German dude quarantined in the hospital of La Gomera stopped showing symptoms a couple of days after being picked up by the hospital (his 4 fellows and a 5th close friend are now quarantined in the hotel room since they keep on testing negative, even with the new test kits, they will be quarantined there until the 11th).
He didn't even infect 4 people he was actively traveling and sharing an hotel room with.

Hell, Hubei has 72.78% of all the cases that are confirmed in China, that's almost 27 times the amount of cases of the 2nd most infected region. Even if Wuhan and its neighbor cities' medical resources are exhausted, that can't be the rest for the rest of the country, no matter if Xi sent 11K doctors there, with such a sizable country, that's almost nothing but a drop.