Corona Virus Updates Part 2

a reply to: Ravinski

Stock up on bottled water. It will not go bad, and if anything, virus or not, goes wonky with the water supply, you'll have drinking water at least. Nothing wrong with having some of the basics around.

Cheers

a reply to: Ravinski

Found this earlier om that topic

Bodies piling up, Hubei Province funeral home workers pushed to near collapse as cremation centers burn HUNDREDS of bodies per day

A bombshell story published in Chinese by Liberty Times Net reveals that just one funeral home is “cremating 316 bodies per day” as its workers are driven to total exhaustion with just two hours of sleep per day.

Note that the 316 bodies per day is from just one funeral home. That’s nowhere near the actual total of bodies being cremated in the region, of course. Another funeral home in the region, the “Hankou Funeral Home,” is documented to have the capacity to cremate 576 bodies per day all by itself.

We do not yet know how many cremation centers are operating in the Hubei Province, where the Wuhan city resides, but just from these two, the cremation capacity is nearly 900 bodies per day, and even then the bodies are piling up. From these facts we can deduce that the actual death rate in the region most likely exceeds 900 bodies per day.

To get a more accurate death toll, looking at what is exactly happening at the crematoriums is a good start.

From a past posts, it was estimated that about 200 bodies a day where cremated on an average day for a city the size of Wuhan, previous to the infection. Wuhan has about 5 to 7 main crematoriums from recollection. So could be looking at 2000-3000 deaths per day as a rough estimate at this stage. Compared to the recovery rate it leaves about 10% of survival. With something this deadly it makes sense to shut down a city.

I know there is a lot of debate and uncertainty of just what the fatality rate actually is. For now I am personally preparing myself for something around the 50% rate with all that I have seen. 15% is possible and a low mark for now, 90% is also possibility for the high end. Access to good support, medication and care seams to help. It is going to take a while for all the long term data to come in and get verified. For now the 2% figure is about as good as Adam Schiff.

One thing to add when looking at the crematorium data is how all burials are now banned from what I can gather. This will add some workload to to crematorium from other causes of death. Trying to get a rough idea to it all.

a reply to: Mateo96

This is all linked to the original Brit who went to that Singapore conference and the cases diagnosed at the ski resort in France. Just shows the connectivity of our global community these days.

I found it interesting that the daughter tested positive for flu. Brings me back to wondering if it is more than one virus that is circulating in Wuhan. Or just coincidence

a reply to: kwakakev

It is things like this that give one pause concerning the "power of progress". Before this, had we thought about it, we may have concluded that in modern times, the information about such an outbreak would be reported accurately and that our expertise-based governments and NGOs would competently respond.

I don't trust the numbers we're hearing. I don't trust WHO or CDC. And various governments around the world, not even one, refuse to state plainly that the extent of the pandemic is unknown. This is all boiling down to a control game, which the people in charge will play until they can't.

Not confidence-building at all.

Cheers

As usual Chris has some inside information that is not complimentary to the CCP... I can not say I disagree with him.
youtu.be...

I keep thinking about the incubation period, anyone know source of where it is first mentioned about 14day period. I just cant see it or we would of seen a another wave of infections outside china by now, it just seems a trickle the more and more I think about maybe china has done enough to quarentine this. I wish ccp were more open with the numbers.

Also was trying to find new cases of flu outbreaks in the uk I found this

www.gov.uk...

Report on 6th febuary relating to last 7 days reports 39 new cases of acute respiratory outbreaks 5 tested positive for influenza and 1 for RSV. I'm probably thinking over all this to much but is it possible people are being told they have the flu instead of coronavirus?

originally posted by: 727Sky
As usual Chris has some inside information that is not complimentary to the CCP... I can not say I disagree with him.
youtu.be...

This guy didn't know that yesterday the US Govt. sent 10 tons of supplies to China. So some his talk is not updated.
The plane left the States, I have not heard of its landing yet on any Asian news which was on 7 pm tonight.
May have had a lay over somewhere.

Any of you in the military here got an update on the plane.

Thanks.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Think WHO has proven they are useless, personally they should be scrapped and some completely independent body created and not one which relies on governments and there funding

a reply to: Pommer89

Wouldn’t put much faith in phe U.K. tbh, government mouth piece as well, as seen on their statement about the bus drivers driving the evacuated and their “catch it, bin it, kill it” bs(don’t get me wrong that’s always good advice but regarding coronavirus, not so much!)

a reply to: Ravinski


Don't know your situation in your country, but you mentioned "toilets". Personally, if this virus hits your hometown , I 'd be careful in using public toilets and would supervise my children not to sit on the seats and always flush the toilet before using it.

For water I’ve bought a life straw

Look them up some are bigger and will run through 600+ gallons at 0.01 which will filter out any potential bacteria or virus in the water supply

The one I bought was £35

A new non peer reviewed paper addressing the 4 HIV insert myths, explaining they point to natural coronavirus evolution. The report then shows evidence that snakes are not the intermediate host.

Based on our analyses and existing data of coronaviruses, we concluded that the intermediate hosts of 2019-nCoV are more likely to be mammals and birds than snakes, and that the novel insertions observed in the spike protein are naturally evolved from bat coronaviruses.

The four insertions highlighted by Pradhan et al. in the
spike protein are not unique to 2019-nCoV and HIV-1. In fact, they are shared with many other
viruses including the bat coronavirus

www.biorxiv.org...

Link to the full report PDF www.biorxiv.org...

Hadn't seen this before, maybe it's been a posted and I missed it, so much info contributed here, thank you all.

Anyway it's a computational model of expected spread of the virus into different countries.

Event Horizon - 2019-nCoV

2019 Novel Coronavirus Global Risk Assessment

This site compiles results obtained from a computational / mathematical model for the expected global spread of the novel coronavirus that originated in the Chinese province of Hubei in December 2019. The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transporation network (WAN) that connects approx. 4000 airports with more than 25000 direct connections.

link

Risk model before airport closures.

link

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Pommer89

Wouldn’t put much faith in phe U.K. tbh, government mouth piece as well, as seen on their statement about the bus drivers driving the evacuated and their “catch it, bin it, kill it” bs(don’t get me wrong that’s always good advice but regarding coronavirus, not so much!)

That was pure negligence

I’m now completely ignoring anything they say it’s been nothing but false and lies

Now they’re taking those people from Wuhan and putting them next to a dense population of houses, if it’s not lvl4 bio lab standard then we have a huge outbreak coming

Update 2-9-2020
Tokyo time 8pm Sunday

1. Good news, remember the tour bus driver that was infected driving the Chinese tourist around a while ago. The one that got the virus. Today he was released from the hospital with a good bill of health. So it seems like (my opinion, sorry I really shouldn't say, but) if one can get to the doctor and be tested fast enough, a recovery now has been proven here.
2. Good news also, the second person (man) yesterday also who had the virus was released from the hospital with a good bill of health.
THINGS ARE LOOKING UP HERE FOLKS

3. 600 passengers on the Diamond Princess today will/got part of their medication. Looks like the Japanese military doctors may have been the ones giving the medications (all packaged up) to the 2 crew doctors on board and others involved. (notice I said PART of their medications) That's a lot of prescriptions to fill. And keep in mind 1/2 of the passengers are in their 70's and older.

There was a rumor going on about something that seems to have made some sense. But I mention I won't post any rumors or any BS on my post. But I will say based on the rumor if it materializes, some very good progress is in the makings.
Hopefully tomorrow morning the news will be for real.

I do have a question for those that know about military helicopters . Or stationed in Okinawa.
What is the largest passenger helicopter ( USA military use) that is available in Okinawa?

Sky News Breaking

@SkyNewsBreak

Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty says a further patient has tested positive for coronavirus in England bringing the total number of cases in the UK to four

Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty says "the new case is a known contact of a previously confirmed UK case"

a reply to: Pommer89

Whilst I'd like to agree with you I think what we are seeing now is the state of the virus spread 10 to 14 days ago.

I believe the virus started end Nov in Wuhan tho we don't really have all the facts. It took until 31st Dec for Dr Li to raise a red flag about 7 SARS like cases. Now that probably meant several hundred infected by that point (depending on the virulence of the bug) because some just have cold symptoms. 2 to 3 weeks later and there are hundreds of thousands infected with several thousand confirmed cases cos they are only testing pneumonia cases.

Other cities in China are seeing the same growth now that would be like 3 weeks ago in Hubei. Singapore and Japan are at about 1 week into Jan figures. I don't know what all that means except I think more drastic measures should be being taken now for public health.

I hope I have all that wrong. I have every sympathy for the people living in Hubei and beyond. Especially medical staff who have dropped dead from exhaustion (or the virus). I know what back to back 12 hour shifts feel like in the NHS and I've never had to wear hazmat gear.

a reply to: misfit312

Probably the Singapore contact case which brings the number of positives as a result of that 1 contact to: 5 in France, ?1 or 2 in Majorca and 1 in the UK.
R0 of 7+?

Think that one in France is telling about the supposed “low risk”