posted on Jan, 27 2020 @ 08:32 AM
Of course a recession is coming. Someday. That's normal. The market expands and contracts. That's what it does.
A deep recession occurs when people are overextended in the market, when it becomes too easy to invest. Investment of unneeded funds is a great idea;
investment of funds requiring those funds to be replaced by the same investment income is... stoopid. It's no different than gambling in Vegas. If you
have the money to spare and want to feed it to a one-armed bandit, go for it. Maybe you'll get lucky. If you're shelling out cash that you need for
the plane ride home so you won't have to spend everything for the plane ride home... you're stoopid.
The Great Depression was caused by the market running wide open and people being able to borrow money, invest it in the market, and pay the loan back
off the investment income. Worked great for a while, until something caused a contraction. Then people who had been living high on the hog suddenly
couldn't pay the debts because their investment didn't produce that quarter. That flooded the market with repossessions, which dropped the price of
that collateral, which caused the banks to lose money. That caused a panic among the general public, who started demanding their money back from the
banks. That caused the banks to close their doors, which added to the panic and stopped commerce. That caused people to be laid off because payrolls
couldn't be met. That caused more shrinkage in the economy and a greater need to access savings, which put more pressure on the banks to cough up cash
they didn't have, resulting in more bank closings... until no one had a job and no one had money to live.
The Great Recession of Bush/Obama was caused by something similar but not as widespread. The Federal government decided housing was a right and poor
people should have houses too. So they started incentivizing home loans to those who couldn't afford (or could barely afford) a home loan. People
snatched these easy loans up, and the first time the market contracted they went into default. The banks didn't close their doors this time (which is
the main reason we didn't go full depression), but they did start 'bundling' loans to sell off to investors. As more of those bundled loans failed due
to people not being able to afford the loans, those investors started losing more cash than they could afford. That tightened the loan market and the
companies who were operating on credit suddenly couldn't make payroll (or were operating so tight they decided to make deep cuts to the labor force).
It didn't help that the government was siphoning off far too much cash from companies in the form of high double taxation and was requiring exorbitant
costs to be incurred due to over-regulation. So a simple contraction became a major contraction and recession.
The recession of the 1970s was caused by one thing and one thing only: energy costs spiking. That put business under the same kind of financial
pressure as the explanation above, just from a different source. That one wasn't too deep and didn't last too long, though, because the market wasn't
overburdened by anything else. Once prices adjusted to reflect the new fuel costs, things got back to normal.
Right now, we have a booming market and we do run the risk of people overextending in it. But we also have reduced regulation and an overall stable
economy. The coming recession is not here and not going to happen any time soon barring other factors.
We have a country where people are being lied to daily by the MSM, to the point that they are literally calling for socialist-based policies that
would create an unstable economic situation. The plan, I believe, is to get rid of the present policies and implement these new ones. Increasing the
minimum wage by a crazy amount is one example; wages are already increasing without the need to raise minimum wage. I haven't seen a minimum wage job
in a while being advertised... there are too many jobs above minimum wage for people to do. Companies are starting to have to compete for line
workers, not just for higher-level employees. Yet, the government wants to promise more. Why? VOTES! Vote for me and I'll make your boss give you a
raise whether he can afford it or not, whether you deserve it or not. Sounds good until your job is one of those which are cut because the company
doesn't want to go bankrupt.
What Trump has done is to decrease the financial load on companies by reducing over-regulation and over-taxation and at the same time try to contract
the labor market by restricting the flow of illegal labor. It's worked. Now he's renegotiating trade deals to increase our export/import ratio and
open up a larger international market for our companies. In that environment there is no need for stringent regulation of the job market; the economy
will take care of itself. As is normal, some will lose, some will win big, but most will win a little.
If we re-institute the kinds of stringent regulations we had before, this boom in the market will shatter. Period. When that happens, we have a very
long way to fall. Donald Trump will not be President forever... in less than 5 years now, he will be out of office and someone else will be in that
Oval Office. If, at that time, the US starts to again suction too much from the private sector the market will collapse. There's your next Great
Depression. Only this time, the people know why it was caused; they will be able to see it because we now have the Internet and on-the-scene reporting
When people are hurting, people will do what it takes to survive, and the instinct can be violent. The French Revolution taught us that.
Guns will not be fully confiscated for another 4 years or so at least. There will be some areas where confiscation begins... red flag laws, for
instance, can disarm many. "Assault weapon" bans can get rid of a good many of the weapons most worrisome to those in power. Then, when there are less
guns to confiscate, small pockets of armed resistance will be easier to handle. Just overwhelm them. If there are 20 people left in an area with guns,
it's not that hard to send in paramilitary "police" to remove the guns; if there are 500 people with high-capacity long-range weapons in the same
area, that little attempt will get a lot of blood spilled... and probably not restricted to the blood supply that is considered acceptable.
That's the plan. They're not coming for our guns yet... everyone relax! You can have your guns for hunting. These are just "common sense" measures to
protect you. Nothing to worry about.
Yet. There will be, once the people are so "secure" and "protected" that they cant save themselves from their "protectors."