Operation Dark Winter wargaming a biological attack

So with the return of yet another SARS like outbreak in China (hmmmm the same city that has a serious hot lab) it may time to revist a US wargame that modeled a biological attack on the CONUS. The scenario code named "Dark Winter" took place from June 22–23, 2001. Months before that fatal day on 9/11 it gave a scary glimpse into how quickly things could go wrong. Ironically we were attacked on September 18th with Anthrax. The Anthrax attack was overshadowed by the horrors of 911 and our march to war..........

Operation Dark Winter:

Scenario: Weaponized smallpox attack initially in Oklahoma City, Georgia and Pennsylvania (14 days total)

With tensions rising in the Taiwan Straits, and a major crisis developing in Southwest Asia, a smallpox outbreak was confirmed by the CDC in Oklahoma City. During the thirteen days of the game, the disease spread to 25 states and 15 other countries. Fourteen participants and 60 observers witnessed terrorism/warfare in slow motion. Discussions, debates (some rather heated), and decisions focused on the public health response, lack of an adequate supply of smallpox vaccine, roles and missions of federal and state governments, civil liberties associated with quarantine and isolation, the role of DoD, and potential military responses to the anonymous attack. Additionally, a predictable 24/7 news cycle quickly developed that focused the nation and the world on the attack and response. Five representatives from the national press corps (including print and broadcast) participated in the game and conducted a lengthy press conference with the President. www.centerforhealthsecurity.org...

US Government: Key positions were maned by actual politicians and leaders.. For example POTUS was played by Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia. They made decisions on how to handle the crisis in real time

Conclusion:

WE ARE NOT PREPARED NOR CAN WE DEAL WITH A WIDESPREAD PANDEMIC


Links:

The script
www.centerforhealthsecurity.org...

Now there are some differences:

1) the scenario was designed to be the worst case so it was by design built to spiral out of control
2) It used smallpox which is an ideal bio warfare due to its long incubation/communicability phase before symptoms emerge

The scenario in addition highlighted a key are that is not unique to the US. That is the healthcare system lacks a surge capacity or the ability to handle mass casualties for an extended period of time.

For example: In Northern California there is at most 200 pediatric Intensive care unit beds available. The use rate hovers between 80-85 percent (that just with routine stuff that kids get sick, injured etc) that means at any given time there is at most 40 bed available. That is beds not staff who may or may not elect to come in to help. Assume we have the staff, a pandemic etc would easily overwhelm the number of free beds. Nor is there an ability short of using a C-17 to move patients to other unaffected areas assuming those states even allow it

Not to mention staff has to be trained to operate in that environment lest they get sick themselves:

For example our full on Ebola et al isolation garb takes about 30-35 minuted to don, and a staggering 45 minutes to take off under supervision. It also is like wearing a portable sauna plus it comes in at almost 25 pounds. Im not kidding wearing a diaper was suggested as you wont be able to simply drop trow if the urge manifests itself etc etc

What the gear looks like. I'm to the readers right and we simulated a 6 hour shift caring for a hypothetical patient including intubation, multiple arrests, transport, special packaging for the morgue etc. 6 hours was quite brutal and we will be working 12-16 hours per in a real scenario

The sad reality is that in the event of a full blown pandemic, untill the MD's and nurses are either dead or have fled the hospitals, the epidemic will continue to spread and kill. Hospitals will represent the last point of congregation and as long as people head there it will continue

After the collapse of society etc people will retreat into small enclaves and live or die as their exposure and genetics allow

I think people are overeating.. But same time I think we need to isolate the virus before it spreads even more.

a reply to: FredT

Kinda odd that the 2002 movie xXx with Vin Diesel had a virus named "Silent Night."

Art imitating life, I presume...

And you are entirely correct.

If we had the 1918 influenza pandemic in 2020?

We would be in a Mad Max scenario in short order.

On the other hand and off topic...

You wear your PPE with verve and vim!

The assessment in 1918 was that the social fabric was strained almost to breaking, but society held on through it all. But we're talking about the dawn on modern medicine and vaccines back then too. People lived with deadly disease, were familiar with it. The only odd/alarming thing about Spanish was it's scope and scale.

These days, we're not acclimated to disease. We're so far removed from it that we think vaccines are worse. You tell me what happens if something like Spanish hits a population like that.

a reply to: FredT

I think this event is a grim reminder of how fast things can spread because of how connected the whole world is but.... This only has a kill rate of 4% yea? If you beat it you're hypothetically good from this strain right?

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: FredT

I think this event is a grim reminder of how fast things can spread because of how connected the whole world is but.... This only has a kill rate of 4% yea? If you beat it you're hypothetically good from this strain right?

It may that this will operate like Spanish. That flu strain is still around, but our immune systems are wise to it. It mutates; we get sick, but it's the flu. The big worry with Avian was that it was a novel strain our immune systems hadn't seen, so it would be like Spanish all over again.

So sure, you live through it, but it's a human bug now. It mutates; we get sick, but now it's like a standard upper respiratory bug like other coronaviruses we already get. It hopefully only does this dance once.

a reply to: ketsuko

Well, we will see.

Definitely sucks that China seems to be where a lot of this pops up. They have the business demand of a developed country, so a lot of people in and out.... But the conditions in many parts of a third world. Mix that with a dictatorship like government more set on saving face than preventing further outbreak and it's a perfect storm.

If they're quarantining to the extent alleged, things look grim.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

A good part of the danger of Spanish Flu was our own immune system. It was a severe flu that provoked an intense immune response. Believe it or not, the immune response was what created the Spanish Flu pneumonia -- the inflammatory response.

a reply to: FredT

Very well said!

If you consider small numbers and assume that in a pandemic, only 10% of your population contract the illness.

Where are you going to put 33 million patients?

Even a smallish outbreak can overwhelm any of our societies and not a single health care system could cope.

What FEMA should have are empty hospitals just sitting there to cope in such an emergency.

P

a reply to: pheonix358

Thanks!

People also forget about what to do with the dead. Even if they are willing to accept, most traditional funeral homes, can only take so many bodies assuming they will take the infected dead. This again is on top of the normal deaths

In 2003 there was that massive heatwave in Europe. In France alone 14000+ died and it put a sever strain on the health and mortuary system. I recall that the Mayor of Paris had to send out the police to round up mortuary owners on holiday to bring them back to help handle the influx of bodies. And that figure is nowhere NEAR the 10% we are talking about

Its scary.

It’s gonna Mexican wave across the world leaving millions dead

Some of the reports I’ve see are of doctors a nurses showing signs of mental breakdowns, war like shell shock and terror on their faces...people falling or laying dead or unconscious in the streets, hospitals overflowing long past breaking point, convoys of building materials or army convoys, hospitals being built by armies of construction workers and machines, , graves being dug, it’s really bad

The incubation time is 14 days and is easier to spread than the common cold

Each person effected is transmitting to 14 other people

1000 cases - 50 dead

Majority of dead’s are over 60 years of age

Time to panic?

a reply to: FredT

Do not look at the Book of Revelation while contemplating these numbers.

We already have a large ocean die off caused by over fishing and of course, Fukashima causing the die off of the North Pacific Ocean.

P

a reply to: FredT

hey have you seen this on instagram

its pretty interesting

darkwinter