It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
For the past 15,000 years, a glacier on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau of China has hosted a party for some unusual guests: an ensemble of frozen viruses, many of them unknown to modern science.
Scientists recently broke up this party after taking a look at two ice cores from this Tibetan glacier, revealing the existence of 28 never-before-seen virus groups.
Ancient never-before-seen viruses discovered locked up in Tibetan glacier
By Laura Geggel 22 January 2020
This estimate is based on the following assumptions:
Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals .
There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [16,17] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,18].
Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day.
This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data , and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College London to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
Exit screening (which reportedly came into force on the 15th January ) had no impact on exported cases reported up to 16th January. Exit screening may have reduced exports in recent days, in which case our baseline prediction may be an underestimate of the true number of cases in Wuhan.
We assume all cases in travellers flying to destinations outside mainland China are being detected at those destinations. This may well not be the case. If cases are being missed in other countries, our baseline prediction will underestimate the true number of cases in Wuhan.
We now report uncertainty as the range spanned by the 95% confidence intervals of the first three scenarios in Table 1. Thus, our uncertainty range represents uncertainty in key assumptions as well as statistical assumptions.
originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Wuhan metropolitan area quarantined, that includes Huanggang City and Erzu. About 20 million people. Inner city bus stopped, restaurants closed, movie theaters closed, rail and airports closed.
I’ve been to Wuhan and don’t think they can effectively close the roads but they could cutoff the major highways.
Also don’t know where those SARS numbers are from that people are posting but the official mortality rate is 9.6%. I would personally change that to at least 20% based on the dishonesty of the Chinese govt. Normal CCP procedure is all bad numbers slashed by half or 2/3rds.