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Climatologists predicted today's Australian fires with precision in 2007

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posted on Jan, 13 2020 @ 08:54 AM
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originally posted by: EvilAxis
ATS is continuously Spammed with anti-science disinformation claiming that human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases are not forcing global climate change.

Ninety percent of this is opinion, as if it's sensible to dismiss the consensus of every scientific body of national or international standing for an opinion that they are all willfully colluding in a giant confidence trick.

Scattered amongst opinion are lame and patently absurd 'arguments', like, "the sun is the only driver of climate" or, "the fires were started by arsonists" (as if that nullifies the matter). This nonsense will be ignored by anyone with a remotely scientific background.

More pernicious is the psuedo-science stuff, put out invariably by non-climatologists, often clandestinely funded by the oil industry. Lumps of this noxious disinfo are (often unwittingly, no doubt) dumped into the mix. A typical example in the currently trending Climate alarmists with more egg on their faces is a graph purporting to show global temperatures from 2500 BC - 2040 AD from Harris-Mann Climatologists.

At first sight it could be mistaken for something scientific, at least by the unscientific. It is designed to be. How many are going to investigate the authors' lack of credentials? Or that they also wrote a book with topics like:


- How God is using the weather to get our attention.
- What are the futures prophecies based on the Bible?
- How the weather could play a role in the "End Times."


So did real climatologists conclude in 2007 that, if nothing was done, Australia would suffer major fires in 2020?

They did.

Commissioned by the Labor government of Kevin Rudd, The Garnaut Climate Change Review (large pdf) published in 2008 drew data from a Consultancy Report prepared for The Climate Institute of Australia, 2007. (pdf)

The report concluded that unless recommended measures were taken:


Bushfires
Recent projections of fire weather (Lucas et al. 2007) suggests that fire seasons will start earlier, end slightly later and generally be more intense. This effect increases over time, but should be directly observable by 2020.


They were also precise about the location. On page 48, Concluding Remarks, it predicts:


The largest changes are expected in northern New South Wales.


It was ignored by the Coalition governments of Abbott, Turnbull, and Morrison, continuing the obstructionism of the Howard years. Funding of firefighters was reduced.


Say what you will but it was 73 degrees in Massachusettes yesterday (United States). It's usually in the low 30's for this time...I'm aldo noticing that it is not nearly as dark at 4 pm as it use to be...is the earth's tilt a bit off?




posted on Jan, 13 2020 @ 08:59 AM
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a reply to: chrismarco

Right?

The coldest month of the year here is January. Average high of 36 and average low of 22.
It was 70 yesterday.
Only happened twice in recorded history but in February, not January.

Everyone was excited because it was like a Spring day.
I couldn't get excited - because it's not right.



posted on Jan, 14 2020 @ 05:38 PM
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Those who think these fires are 'normal' should read today's article on phys.org: Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before—but they're ignoring key facts

Previous severe Australian bushfire seasons and droughts occurred when the Indian Ocean Dipole combined with El Niño to reinforce dry conditions.


Perhaps most alarmingly, this summer's bushfire crisis also differs from the past in the spread and extent of landscape burned. More so than during Victoria's Ash Wednesday or Black Saturday, this season's fires have burned large swathes of the country. In some cases, fires merged to form unprecedented "mega fires". It is sobering to consider what might happen to the Australian landscape the next time an El Niño hits.



posted on Jan, 14 2020 @ 05:52 PM
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originally posted by: EvilAxis
Those who think these fires are 'normal' should read today's article on phys.org


I don't need to read any article to know whats going on isn't "normal". The smoke haze we're currently getting in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne is enough to convince me... I've never witnessed anything like it in my entire 36 years on this earth.

I'm like a few hours drive from any bushfire, but yesterday at work you could hardly see the other end of the factory, the smoke haze was so bad... its absolutely unbelievable.



posted on Jan, 14 2020 @ 06:03 PM
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I was a kid in the 70s and acid rain was going to destroy the world ! What happened to that ?



posted on Jan, 14 2020 @ 06:49 PM
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a reply to: Subaeruginosa
It's heartbreaking, sad beyond words. I feel for you and your compatriots. I also have close family in Australia.


originally posted by: SulfurMercurySalt
I was a kid in the 70s and acid rain was going to destroy the world ! What happened to that ?


If you're genuinely interested:
Whatever happened to acid rain?

Put your CT hat on - exactly the same efforts from the coal industry to attack the science and scientists and pretend it wasn't a thing.
edit on 14-1-2020 by EvilAxis because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 14 2020 @ 10:06 PM
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Mean while back at Glacier National Park in Montana, officials had to retract the sign that showed all glaciers would be gone by 2020.

God for bid that there is a 100 year storm per se, such the case of Australia.

As it has to be global warming right?

Like the ole saying I heard some one say: Even a dead clock is right twice a day!

edit on 14-1-2020 by kingsquirel because: (no reason given)

edit on 14-1-2020 by kingsquirel because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 14 2020 @ 11:25 PM
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a reply to: EvilAxis

just like they predicted a coming ice age? Or how they predicted parts of the Earth would be uninhabitable by 2000? Or how they said massive heat waves would cause the ice to melt and flood major cities by 2012? Or how we've had "10 years left" for decades now?



posted on Jan, 15 2020 @ 03:54 AM
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This is less the result of climate change and more of the result of a drought combined with lack of prevention caused by environmentalist restrictrions, and human made fires spreading (arsonists).






posted on Jan, 15 2020 @ 07:24 PM
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a reply to: kyosuke

This is where you get your information? A YouTube video by an ignorant loudmouth who launches his piffle with, "there's this really great dude on Twitter, he's a meteorologist, I've forgot his name..."

Your second one is from chief anti-climate science propagandist Rupert Murdoch's Sky News, churning out the 'arsonists vs climate change' meme and trying to prop up his disgraced mate Scott Morrison.

Po lice Contradict Claims Spread Online Exaggerating Arson's Role in Australian Bushfires

Good to see James Murdoch and wife are dissociating themselves from Murdoch senior's disgraceful role in this.

James Murdoch Slams Fox News and News Corp Over Climate-Change Denial


edit on 15-1-2020 by EvilAxis because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 15 2020 @ 09:15 PM
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originally posted by: AnonymousMoose
a reply to: EvilAxis

just like they predicted a coming ice age?


If by 'they' you mean climatologists - they didn't. In the 1970s, when climatology, computers and computer modelling were in their infancy, some believed the cooling effect of particulates in pollution would outweigh the warming effect of greenhouse gases, leading to the possibility of a new ice age within hundreds or thousands of years.

This theory got more media play, but the academic papers show that most climatologists believed the warming effect of greenhouse gases would predominate. Understandably, the consensus was not strong as it is now that there is vastly more data and the modelling tools are exponentially more powerful.

That '70s myth - did climate science really call for "a coming ice age?" ars Technica


originally posted by: AnonymousMoose
Or how they predicted parts of the Earth would be uninhabitable by 2000?


Again I'm not sure who you mean by 'they'. Besides, parts of the earth have always been uninhabitable.


originally posted by: [post=24874981]
Or how they said massive heat waves would cause the ice to melt and flood major cities by 2012?


I can't find any climatologists who predicted that, still less a consensus.


originally posted by: AnonymousMoose
Or how we've had "10 years left" for decades now?


There isn't a consensus amongst climatologists on the point of no return.
edit on 15-1-2020 by EvilAxis because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 15 2020 @ 09:39 PM
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originally posted by: kingsquirel
Mean while back at Glacier National Park in Montana, officials had to retract the sign that showed all glaciers would be gone by 2020.


So they aren't melting and it's all a hoax?


In 1966 the park had 35 named glaciers large enough to be considered active. By 2015, only 26 named glaciers remained. The average area reduction was 39 percent, though some lost as much as 85 percent. This trend is expected to continue as temperatures rise. Some small remnant ice may persist late into the 21st century or even beyond, depending on how and when we act. 



posted on Jan, 16 2020 @ 02:13 AM
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a reply to: EvilAxis

When you quote known liars we have trouble going past that to say we can possibly agree. The common ground has been lost because one side literally lies and anyone who disagrees are 'deniers'. 1st amendment is going to be challenged because people quit believing their lies and like in Soviet Gulag's you have to believe what you are told before you can leave.



posted on Jan, 16 2020 @ 05:01 AM
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originally posted by: EvilAxis
a reply to: 727Sky
The video you posted from Tony Heller (alias Steven Goddard) is exactly the sort of disinfo that fills these topics. Like the aforementioned Geller-Mann Climatologists bunk, it's junk science produced by a man with an agenda and no qualifications in the field. He has a Bachelors degree in Geology, and a Masters in Electrical Engineering and has never published a peer reviewed paper of any description. He willfully misreprents data.





Tony Heller could have a degree in basket weaving and still be able to research published Temp records in news papers and what passes for records in a country. Obviously you did not watch either video as all the videos did was point out news paper articles and government records going back years and years which go against what you are being told is "today's truth"..

You want to blame the news articles and your own government for lying and publishing fake news from way back when before there was an agenda to push a world tax on everyone that will do absolutely nothing except beak everyone to conform to their agenda 21/30 plans for humanity; write them and let us know.. Did you know that the much vaulted IPCC has a bunch of politicians and policy makers not climate scientist.. if their is a finding that does not push their B.S. they ask for a re-do or disregard... Now... the good news for all the failed climate model makers is they are supposed to start adding climate forcing into their models... Climate forcing ...look it up if you do not know what it is..

I have friends in Australia who complain about their outlandishly expensive electric and gas bills. Why because your green government thinks they can overcome China and India's release of C02 by going renewable...Good luck as you pay for their release.. Kinda like the fellow who said "Someone who thinks his neighbor has to many kids so he castrates himself."

I have not seen him (Tony) make a prediction as that is not what he does. He just points out the lies by the people we are supposed to trust .. The lies are easy to point out because the actual records of past temperatures are available both in articles an national records ... Much of the alarmist junk we are exposed to today is from fiddled data as they take the high temps from say the 30s and make them colder or ignore them all together so they can say HOTTEST EVER.. They have been caught in several instances which have been published and even discussed on ATS.

You did not watch the other videos of published temps from around the world so I doubt you will watch this...It starts slow talking about Greenland and the Vikings and ends up talking C02... Oh and did you know that the Ice Caps of Mars are melting look at the time stamp @ 10:00 in the video... but it can not be the Sun it must be something we need to tax you for. youtu.be...



posted on Jan, 16 2020 @ 07:26 PM
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Careful, your faith in your religion might waiver if you spend some time researching independently.

So smug....

a reply to: EvilAxis



posted on Jan, 16 2020 @ 09:30 PM
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originally posted by: 727Sky
Oh and did you know that the Ice Caps of Mars are melting look at the time stamp @ 10:00 in the video...


OK, I looked and this is what I saw:


Presenter: "Scientists are also looking at the ice cap on Mars. It's been shrinking like the Earth's polar ice caps are shrinking. Mars isn't affected by CO2 we create on Earth to make iPods or grow more food, but it is affected by the sun's radiation."
Dr Willie Soon: "You clearly see drastic warming, OK... and melting on the ice cap... OK. There's no doubt that something natural is occurring that has caused the ice cap to melt away on Mars. And the forces could not be human emissions of carbon dioxide."


Dr Willie Soon isn't a climatologist, but he's an astrophysicist, so he should know something about Mars. Sure enough, the ice caps on Mars are subject to drastic melting. Every Mars Spring.

So why is he pretending they're rapidly disappearing like those on Earth?

They aren't and he knows they aren't. Doesn't that strike you as dishonest?

Did you believe him, without checking, because you want to?

A paper in 2016, An ice age recorded in the polar deposits of Mars saw, "an accelerated accumulation rate of ice in the uppermost 100 to 300 meters of the polar cap" which they considered consistent with the interglacial phase of Mars' Milankovitch cycle. Nobody but Soon says Mars' ice caps are disappearing.

So why is he making this stuff up?

As of 2015, he received $1,657,587 from the fossil fuel industry, while failing to disclose that conflict of interest in most of his work. He has contracts with Southern Company, the Koch Brothers, Exxon Mobil, DonorsTrust, American Petroleum Institute, Mobil, Texaco and others.
edit on 16-1-2020 by EvilAxis because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 16 2020 @ 10:17 PM
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a reply to: EvilAxis

There are so many disabled Star destroyers in the comments section.

Controlled burning should've been done half a year ago, however that would make all firefighters arsonists! if the right wing governments weren't scrooge Mcducks-as every right wing parties are-they could've paid the firefighters to do controlled burning, hey the guys and gals are volunteers, they have families to provide for and mortgages to pay.

That's the problem with governments, they are all reactive, never proactive, always procrastinating.



posted on Jan, 17 2020 @ 05:59 PM
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originally posted by: Thecakeisalie
a reply to: EvilAxis

Controlled burning should've been done half a year ago, however that would make all firefighters arsonists!


The problem is, even 6 months ago 98% of NSW was already in an unprecedented drought, many areas not having seen rain for almost three years by that time.

So controlled burning was considered too dangerous. This, as you suggest, would likely have triggered what it was supposed to prevent.

Victoria state authorities destroyed four homes and over 3,000 hectares of farmland and forest in 2015, trying to burn off hazardous undergrowth.

Of course judicious and we'll timed controlled burning can prevent some fires, but as drought conditions persist all that's left is firewood.
edit on 17-1-2020 by EvilAxis because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 17 2020 @ 06:43 PM
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originally posted by: EvilAxis

originally posted by: Thecakeisalie
a reply to: EvilAxis

Controlled burning should've been done half a year ago, however that would make all firefighters arsonists!


The problem is, even 6 months ago 98% of NSW was already in an unprecedented drought, many areas not having seen rain for almost three years by that time.

So controlled burning was considered too dangerous. This, as you suggest, would likely have triggered what it was supposed to prevent.

Victoria state authorities destroyed four homes and over 3,000 hectares of farmland and forest in 2015, trying to burn off hazardous undergrowth.

Of course judicious and we'll timed controlled burning can prevent some fires, but as drought conditions persist all that's left is firewood.


This!!

I have spent a fair bit of time in the bush and its drier than I've ever seen it. You could tell it was all about to go up months ago. It's not only that there hasn't been any rain, it has also been hotter, and hotter earlier in the season, and with that, more evaporation. There is hardly any moisture in the Gum tree's leaves because of this, its mostly flammable oil.

We were warned over a decade ago about the increased frequency and severity of droughts caused by climate change and that is exactly what we are getting. The other thing we were warned about is more extreme weather in general, meaning that when this drought breaks, there is an increased likelihood that it will be extreme, meaning big floods. This has always been the case in Australia, but we have been warned to expect an increase in the intensity. Quietly hoping that this drought is about to break



posted on Jan, 17 2020 @ 06:52 PM
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a reply to: Vroomfondel

My thoughts exactly.... Can it actually be classified as a prediction when its self fulfilled by someone starting the fires?




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