Climatologists predicted today's Australian fires with precision in 2007

originally posted by: hounddoghowlie
a reply to: EvilAxis
here's a scientific fact. if someone doesn't pour gas on a bunch of dried up brush and throw a match to it it won't burn.

Forest fires have been occurring long before humans, still less matches, were a thing. Lightning is the most common natural cause. Some tree species depend upon periodic fires for their germination.

Nevertheless, most of these fires are caused, inadvertantly or sometimes deliberately, by humans living near forests. But how they start is totally irrelevant to the climate conditions which guarantee they will spread uncontrollably.

originally posted by: hounddoghowlie
a reply to: EvilAxis

"the fires were started by arsonists" (as if that nullifies the matter). This nonsense will be ignored by anyone with a remotely scientific background.

here's a scientific fact. if someone doesn't pour gas on a bunch of dried up brush and throw a match to it it won't burn.
so yeah it does nullify the matter. i'll have to see what the flash point and fire point is of dry brush, but is not like it's just gonna burst into to flames. i know it's kinda low but no where what a flammable liquid is.

Can't speak for the bush fires, but my mom was raised on a farm and part of the process on the farm was bailing hay and they always had to be careful about when to farm it because if you bale hay at the wrong time (when it is wet) it can, because of certain chemical reactions that are set into motion, combust into flame.

Lighting can spark a fire. And ashes from those fires can carry on the winds kilometers away from where the initial fire was. Places kilometers away from brush fires (forest fires too) even homes can catch fire because of embers carried on the wind.

I know I just finished watching Aussie Gold Hunters, and while a dad and his daughter were out metal detecting for gold they had to high-tale it because a bush fire started up. Almost caught them too. Never stated what the cause was that started that fire though.

Reminds me of this funny scene from The God's Must Be Crazy:

a reply to: EvilAxis

In my opinion, all the people who are pushing the, “we need to make drastic changes now for the planet”, are war mongers without knowing it (or they’re too gutless to admit it). If America and/or Australia went 100% green tomorrow, you know what the impact would be? Nil, nothing, a very small contribution. Unless you are willing to force other countries who pollute at an alarmingly higher rate via force/economic sanctions to go green, you have nothing and can do nothing to change what’s happening. Not that I believe we are or are not actually influencing climate change in a measurable way.

Just say it already, one world government that controls all in the name of the all mighty internet creator Al Gore!

It’s amazing how helpless we are at this point to actually influence global climate, the faster we learn to adapt (as our ancestors did) the better off we’ll be. Even if that means moving your beach house away from the shore 1’ to protect it for another 1000 years

There have been cycles of heat and cold much worse than today and that is just within the last 250 years .. People's life spans are so short as is their attention span that when some expert says this is the hottest or coldest on record they fail to investigate what the actual records show. Australia did the same thing as California when they stopped controlled burns and underbrush clean up several years ago...Now you get what is the results in both cases.

Look at some records (1934 in Australia and 30 years before and 30 years before) and compare to what is being passed as truth today. youtu.be...

a reply to: EvilAxis

This is completely ridiculous.

You really want to stand up for climate scientists predictions? They have been wrong 1000 times more than they have been right.

Maybe it’s just me but these fires being set by arsonists probably was more of a factor than CO2 levels.

But this is what really gets me - if 10 years ago Australia had gone into the Stone Age and stopped all co2 emmisions it would have changed NOTHING.

If you believe there is a real problem go after the real sources China and India.

Wow, Climate change science predicted that eighty five percent of Australian fires would be caused by pyromaniacs, people who did not listen about burning brush, and people who were careless with fire. How cool...I mean warm.

Their prediction does not match this present problem in Australia, yes they are having a dry heat spell, but there is no proof it will be permanent yet. I agree we must be better environmental stewards and take care of our bio-dome we live in so it does not fail. But the climate agenda solutions they are pushing are not right, taxing energy and giving the money to their program is not good. We need to invest in fixing our factories to better reasonable standards and make things to last. Wrapping everything in plastic is not good either, It is far more than just carbon emissions.

It would be better to be making stuff here in America at a higher price to disuade buying stuff we do not need than to ship junk made in China half way around the world to here and send materials to china to build junk that needs to be rebuilt in a few years. Require banning death dating and planned obsolescence of stuff. If we get back to a manufacturing base instead of a consumer base, we wouldn't need to make crap to support sales jobs.

a reply to: EvilAxis

But how they start is totally irrelevant to the climate conditions which guarantee fires will spread uncontrollably.

are you high? really it's irrelevant? so when places go through droughts, and especially one that is already in a arid to semi arid climate. how a fire starts is irrelevant? please.

as most have stated and continue to state global warming...er "climate change" and it's being man made is debatable.
when all this first started there was a web site that had all kinds of data from the past 80 years, ranging from sea level on the coast of Florida, temperature, and rainfall and other fun facts such as fires.

it never showed any difference of more than 1 to 5 degrees for more than a a year or two, sea levels rose and fell only a few inches, which if you had listened to all the changers half the state should have been underwater by now, and in the years that were drought stricken guess what the wild fires increased.

people started using it as a source for disproving the theory, two thing happened after that. first it became a pay site, then when that didn't work, they took it down. sounds like the ones who said they weren't gonna turn over the emails and would destroy their computers to keep people from getting them.

a reply to: SimpleIdea

that is true, decaying matter can become hot and as you a reaction will happen. compost piles can catch fire, and water can also restart a fire.

How about some actual recorded temps and climate from Australia. The weather goes from drought to extreme drought to flooding periodically on a regular basis. 1983 2000 homes were destroyed by fire and dozens died..1896 127 degrees in the shade .. but hey if you believe the so called experts who are nothing more than NWO globalist everything today is the worst it has ever been; send them money and live in a cave trust them they can fix it..youtu.be...

I think there are so many divisions on the issue because it is so complex. I would say it's too complex to fully comprehend. I think more and more it looks as if there is evidence that man is a catalyst for climate change. How much is up for debate. Again there are so many factors involved and they are always changing so much, I don't think there is a human or group of humans smart enough to figure it out with exactitude.

People taking hard-line stances either for or against are probably doing it out of emotion or biased information. I really think if you took a 50,000 ft look down on the situation it's too difficult to figure out.

I do remember a Bible prophecy in Revelation though. And this was written 2,000 years ago now. It said that when the time comes for God's judgement and the end of wickedness mankind would be ruining the earth. And I believe that part of prophecy no one can deny.

Because of big business that runs as almost its own kind of entity, fueled by greedy and lawless people, the earth's climate is in a state of ruin:

"But the nations became wrathful, and your own wrath came, and the appointed time came for the dead to be judged and to reward your slaves the prophets and the holy ones and those fearing your name, the small and the great, and to bring to ruin those ruining the earth.”-Revelation 11:18.

The earth was not being ruined when that prophecy was written. So obviously whatever damage is being done was already foretold, and obviously is repairable. And it won't be allowed to go beyond the limits that have been set on it.

I also believe that the earth is far more resilient than many people realize. That left to its own design the earth is designed in a way that it will fix itself. There is an intricate web of interdependency on earth, that even goes far beyond the earth, starting with the sun, far too complex for us to see everything involved. Even down to the tiniest microscopic bacteria.

Australia's fires are not cause by climate they're caused by demographic change.

originally posted by: EvilAxis

originally posted by: hounddoghowlie
a reply to: EvilAxis
here's a scientific fact. if someone doesn't pour gas on a bunch of dried up brush and throw a match to it it won't burn.

Forest fires have been occurring long before humans, still less matches, were a thing. Lightning is the most common natural cause. Some tree species depend upon periodic fires for their germination.
..

So you agree they are natural occurrences, and happened long before matches were invented.

Nevertheless, most of these fires are caused, inadvertantly or sometimes deliberately, by humans living near forests. But how they start is totally irrelevant to the climate conditions which guarantee they will spread uncontrollably.

Climate change make wildfires spread.
Since they were localized before...


The real problem with climate change is that the issue of man made waste in our atmosphere has been hijacked by mentalists 'spreading' misinformation like wild fires in turn giving ignoramuses who think there is no cause and effect on a macro scale a bigger pedestal to proudly assert their ignorance

a reply to: 727Sky

i was just going to post that for new south wales. here is a site that has the last 14 months of weather data for them.

going back to sept of 2019 they had less than 1 inch of rain, 0.03937008 to be exact or 1 mm in their form measure.

here is the site
Tamworth, New South Wales September 2019 Daily Weather Observations

as i said much of the climate in new south wales is a dry arid place always has been as far back as the first known dutch explorer that found Australia. hell even the Aborigines will tell you that.

originally posted by: odzeandennz
This belongs in the hoax bin

Thats correct


I am very concerned about global cooling though.

Grand solar minimum is just beginning now. Things will begin to get very bad over the next 5 years. I bet they will try and put a spin on that so they can tax us on that too

a reply to: EvilAxis

ATS is continuously Spammed with anti-science disinformation claiming that human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases are not forcing global climate change.

I just want to say it’s nice to see someone with actual scientific sources and not oil company funded propaganda or religious nuts trying their hand at understanding climate science. Which everyone here takes as gospel. As you can plainly see on the front page.

It’s funny watching the narrative evolve. It’s gone from climate change being some totally fake thing to now everyone acknowledging that the climate is changing, but that humans aren’t responsible for it.

And the narrative will continue to change.

a reply to: EvilAxis

So did real climatologists conclude in 2007 that, if nothing was done, Australia would suffer major fires in 2020?
They did.

And a lot of those fires were started by....wait for it....people! On purpose!

In order to prove that Australian bush fires would be an issue in 2020, people went out and started bush fires.

That's like driving your car into a wall to prove that car accidents can happen.

a reply to: Vector99

In order to prove that Australian bush fires would be an issue in 2020, people went out and started bush fires

Those dastardly climatologists, going around the world setting things on fire to prove themselves right. Why didn’t I think of that before? That’s way more probable than humans contributing to an overall changing of the climate. Which then makes it easier for these fires to break out.

originally posted by: underwerks

Really easy for those fires to break out when someone intentionally starts it.

sigh...

edit on 12-1-2020 by Vector99 because: (no reason given)

originally posted by: projectvxn
Australia's fires are not cause by climate they're caused by demographic change.

Arsonists.
ktla.com...
www.axios.com...
www.bbc.com...

Yes it's hot and dry, but people keep exacerbating the situation...
From intentionally setting to simply flicking a cigarette out the window.


It's over 180 arrest now.

Police Arrest at Least 24 People Accused of Intentionally Starting Bushfires in Australia

The above is old. Arrest keep coming..

originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: EvilAxis

So did real climatologists conclude in 2007 that, if nothing was done, Australia would suffer major fires in 2020?
They did.

And a lot of those fires were started by....wait for it....people! On purpose!

This is misinformation.

Only about 1 per cent of the land burnt in NSW this bushfire season can be officially attributed to arson, and it is even less in Victoria, the ABC can reveal.

The world has been shocked by the scenes of devastation as the unprecedented destruction of Australia's horror bushfire season rages on.

The disaster has sparked significant media speculation that many of the blazes were deliberately lit.

While it is true firebugs remain a legitimate and serious threat, we crunched the numbers provided by police and fire authorities around the country.

The results might surprise you.

How fire lies spread 'wildly'


As authorities fight bushfires around the country, an ABC investigation reveals a battle of a very different kind online.
NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) Inspector Ben Shepherd said earlier this week lightning was predominantly responsible for the bushfire crisis.

"I can confidently say the majority of the larger fires that we have been dealing with have been a result of fires coming out of remote areas as a result of dry lightning storms," he said.

In Victoria, where about 1.2 million hectares has burned, only 385 hectares — or 0.03 per cent — have been attributed to suspicious circumstances.

www.abc.net.au...

Arson overstated
As for the cause, the website article claims "many of the fires were set by arsonists." The article cites a news story in The Australian that said that more than 180 people have been arrested since the start of the bushfire season and that Swinburne University professor James Ogloff said that about 50% of bushfires were "lit by firebugs."

The 180 figure is wrong.

New South Wales police reported on Jan. 6 that it has taken "legal action" against 183 people for bushfire-related offenses since Nov. 8. But that number includes 24 people charged with deliberately setting bushfires, 53 people cited for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban and 47 people cited for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land. Not all of these people were arrested, as the Starnes article claims.

Moreover, bot and troll accounts are likely involved in a "disinformation campaign" exaggerating the role of arson in the fires, according to a social media analysis by a lecturer at Queensland University of Technology in Australia, The Guardian reported.

www.politifact.com...

The NSW Police Force has taken legal action against more than 180 people for bushfire-related offences since late last year.

Numerous bush and grass fires have impacted the state, claiming the lives of 18 people and destroying hundreds of millions of animals and livestock, thousands of homes, and more than 4.9 million hectares of land, so far this bushfire season.

Since Friday 8 November 2019, legal action – which ranges from cautions through to criminal charges – has been taken against 183 people – including 40 juveniles – for 205 bushfire-related offences.

Of note:

24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires
53 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, and
47 people have had legal actions for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land.

And those statistics are for the entire state of NSW. Not necessarily just in the area's effected by these bushfires.

This controversy surrounding arson originated from an article from 'The Australian', owned by News Corporation (Rupert Murdoch). It has been refuted as false by Australian Authorities. It is misinformation. As seen above, fire authorities in Australia have laid the blame on lighting for the majority of ignition sources. Spread is by fire and embers whipped through dry forest by winds.

Deny Ignorance.