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This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so‐called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20‐20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades.
Lomborg suffers from a fundamental methodological flaw which means that it could not fulfil its aim, stated in the‘Abstract’, to investigate ‘the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030’.
Projections of global mean surface temperature for the period up to 2100 are based on cumulative annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. While Lomborg purports to analyze the temperature changes associated with policies affecting emissions up to 2030, the author fails to acknowledge that the temperature projections to 2100 are determined primarily by assumptions that are made about cumulative annual global emissions over the 70-year period after 2030, rather than cumulative annual emissions during the period up to 2030.
“Lomborg’s book is seriously flawed and fails to meet basic standards of credible scientific analysis. The authors note how Lomborg consistently misuses, misrepresents or misinterprets data to greatly underestimate rates of species extinction, ignore evidence that billions of people lack access to clean water and sanitation, and minimize the extent and impacts of global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels and other human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases. Time and again, these experts find that Lomborg’s assertions and analyses are marred by flawed logic, inappropriate use of statistics and hidden value judgments. He uncritically and selectively cites literature—often not peer-reviewed— that supports his assertions, while ignoring or misinterpreting scientific evidence that does not. His consistently flawed use of scientific data is, in Peter Gleick’s words 'unexpected and disturbing in a statistician.'”
Lomborg is wrong. His analysis is flawed.
UCS embraces an environmental agenda that often stands at odds with the “rigorous scientific analysis” it claims to employ. A radical green wolf in sheep’s clothing, UCS tries to distinguish itself from the Greenpeaces of the world by convincing the media that its recommendations reflect a consensus among the scientific community. And that’s what makes it so dangerous. Whether it’s energy policy or agricultural issues, UCS’s “experts” are routinely given a free pass from newspaper reporters and television producers when they claim that mainstream science endorses their radical agenda.
Here’s how it works: UCS conducts an opinion poll of scientists or organizes a petition that scientists sign. Then it manipulates or misconstrues the results in order to pronounce that science has spoken. In 1986 UCS asked 549 of the American Physical Society’s 37,000 members if Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was “a step in the wrong direction for America’s national security policy.” Despite the biased wording of the push-poll question, only 54 percent disapproved of SDI. Even so, UCS declared that the poll proved “profound and pervasive skepticism toward SDI in the scientific community.”
I guess I am in a unique situation. As a research engineer, I can understand the scientific jargon just fine and am inherently familiar with the scientific principles involved. Yet, I am primarily self-taught, obtaining my degree later in life. That means my biases are based not on what someone standing in front of a classroom said, but on what I learned myself from a pure desire just to know and understand how things work.
Formal education teaches you to regurgitate the accepted mantra. If you dont, you get a bad grade. Correct regurgitation grants you an A. We see this pattern in adults, especially in science. Questioning "settled science" only grants you scorn, ridicule and possibly a lose of a job.
Over a period of twenty months, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy repeatedly concedes that the Agency's sweeping climate-regulation of America's fossil fuel-fired power plants will have no impact on the Earth's climate. McCarthy openly admits that the Clean Power Plan "is not about end of pipe controls." Instead, she says the rule is about "driving investment in renewables..., [and] advancing our ongoing clean energy revolution". McCarthy says, "That's what... reinventing a global economy looks like."
Lomborg’s book is seriously flawed and fails to meet basic standards of credible scientific analysis.