Ukrainian 737 down in Iran

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: rickymouse

An engine failure on takeoff is a Bad Thing depending on the weight and configuration of the aircraft.

The 737-800 is fully capable of continuing flight on 1 engine. Of course, that assumes that the decision to continue is made after reaching V1 speed. That speed depends on aircraft weight, flap setting, temperature, airport altitude, condition of the runway, runway gradient, and wind speed. For fully loaded 737, V1 is in the 145 knot (165 mph) range. If the engine fails after V1, you keep it on the ground until reaching Vr or rotation speed, when you pull the nose up to about an 8 degree angle and take off. You let the aircraft accelerate about another 10 knots and climb upward. If the engine fails before V1, you abort the takeoff and stop.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

If it was anything like we speculated above, absolutely.

a reply to: F4guy

I was thinking a less experienced crew, but after seeing their experience, they probably wouldn't even have noticed.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Makes sense. I know all of this is based on speculation. The one thing that is missing are reports of seeing the missile. Lots of on the scene pics coming out now. Wouldn't missile of that sort be bright or leave a visible trail enough for anyone outside at the time to see?

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: weirdguy

Would a hit to the tail be consistent with the video taken?

I dunno, don't listen to me im weird...
Something has punctured that piece of wreckage though, and it seems to be from the side as there is no tearing just a penetration and exit.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: Bigburgh

Even though planes are light aluminum, a flock of birds still wouldn't punch holes in a fuselage traveling at +300mph, would they?

No. They will destroy the carbon fiber radome and smash a windshield but a fuselage hit would be a glancing blow. And there aren't many birds that hang out at 7800 feet.

a reply to: Remy84

Yes, but Iran has been known to censor their internet pretty hard. So reports might not be getting out.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: paraphi

A massive failure brought on by a SAM impact.

Many SAMs that can bring you down don't even have to impact. The one that got me was a Russian S-75 Dvina (NATO Codename SA-2 Guideline). It was a command guided (radar from the ground) missile with either a proximity or cammand fuse. It only had to get within about 800 feet of you and BOOM! Like with horseshoes and hand grenades, close counts.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: carewemust

Of course. If they say it was shot down, there almost has to be a response of some kind. If it suffered a technical malfunction, there's no one to blame. The crew and passengers are dead, so they're not going to dispute it.

One would hope that any punishment aimed at Iran for shooting down this plane would come from countries that had passengers on board.

That they would not look to the United States for delivering the punishment.

originally posted by: solidshot
a reply to: Zaphod58

Don't know what engines this aircraft had fitted? but i remember an old video from a few years back of Rolls Royce saying their engines sent data straight back to HQ so they would likely know of a fault before the pilot? Would this aircraft have done that and just how much info would it have sent?

N o, the -800 has CFM56-7B27 engines, not the Rolls.

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: carewemust

Of course. If they say it was shot down, there almost has to be a response of some kind. If it suffered a technical malfunction, there's no one to blame. The crew and passengers are dead, so they're not going to dispute it.

One would hope that any punishment aimed at Iran for shooting down this plane would come from countries that had passengers on board.

That they would not look to the United States for delivering the punishment.

68 were Canadian, there is no thirst for blood at this point. We don't know for sure what happened, but sure looks like a very bad mistake was made due to piss poor communication.

When stupid games are played, stupid prizes come.

I'm puzzled that any aircraft would be taking off or landing

Im sure that all the people that could sink Bidden were on this plane and are now missing !

a reply to: Zaphod58

Does anyone know what this site is?
35.5912122, 50.8977066


35.5912122, 50.8977066

Ukrainian Air went down in Parand...

What's under the dirt?


This too.35.5615922, 50.9025734


Pistachio Farm??

a reply to: Zaphod58

There's independent reports coming out this morning that it may have been a drone strike or terror attack/shooting down. Any word on the former theory? Not yet clear if the claim is an Iranian or US/Israeli drone, it seems a bit of a stretch and a drone would have to have a lot of mass and fuel on board to create that kind of debris field.

a reply to: bastion

I'm at a loss to imagine how a drone of any kind could make a nice round 4" to 6" entry hole in vertical stabilizer but don't have much trouble imagining Anti-Aircraft Artillery doing so.

a reply to: bastion

Well, as the evidence stacks up supporting a shoot down, you knew that's how Iran would spin it, right???

Once all the excuses (black boxes, missing data, etc) have been exhausted, and there's no other explanation, I-ran will eventually say..."The evil empire of America did it!"

It's only a matter of time.

ETA - You must have been chuckling a bit when you wrote "independent", right?

a reply to: Bigburgh

Toy factory and baby blanket manufacturer.

Obviously.

originally posted by: Bigburgh
a reply to: Zaphod58

Does anyone know what this site is?
35.5912122, 50.8977066

35.5912122, 50.8977066

Ukrainian Air went down in Parand...

What's under the dirt?


This too.35.5615922, 50.9025734

Pistachio Farm??

Not sure where you took that image from but the tweet below suggests there is an IRGC base nearby.

Tweet

originally posted by: Phoenix
a reply to: bastion

I'm at a loss to imagine how a drone of any kind could make a nice round 4" to 6" entry hole in vertical stabilizer but don't have much trouble imagining Anti-Aircraft Artillery doing so.

Agreed, unless it was a massive one full of fuel it seems impossible for it to have caused such a large hole. Surely a drone would disintegrate and leave a much smaller impact zone and not be the shape of a missile impact.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: bastion

Well, as the evidence stacks up supporting a shoot down, you knew that's how Iran would spin it, right???

Once all the excuses (black boxes, missing data, etc) have been exhausted, and there's no other explanation, I-ran will eventually say..."The evil empire of America did it!"

It's only a matter of time.

ETA - You must have been chuckling a bit when you wrote "independent", right?

It's the Ukranian investigators who are looking into the claim, Oleksiy Danilov announced it was one of several posibilities they were looking into alongside a terrorist bomb on the plane, catastrophic engine failure and strike by a missile.

Haven't heard any word of such a claim from Iran, they've gone on record saying it wasn't caused by the US or Iran's 'enemies but engine failure (which isn't consistent with images of the wreckage)'. It's a bizarre one I can't see any evidence for. All the evidence I've seen seems to hint towards a Russian supplied surface to air Tor missile.

I don't know if they're looking into the claim just as a feint possibility due to recent events in the area or because there's any specific evidence that drones were flying in the area but it is one of several possibilities the Ukrainian investigators are looking at (presumably because of the absence of smoke/a rocket plume in pictures and video released so far.

Any evidence the Ukrainian investigation isn't independent or did you just not follow the investigation and wrongly assume Iran had made the claim and wrongly assume I consider anything Iran says to be accurate or independent?

a reply to: Bigburgh


Controlled access point, gated and walled installation.
Looks quite old, if you follow the road back to Qajar there are abandoned checkpoint structures.
These dirt berms look like something they use for protection in rocket launch and missile engine testing facilities.