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BRAVO to the British population for electing the strongest Conservative majority since Thatcher !

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posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 05:49 AM
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a reply to: gortex

People keep glossing over this abstaining in votes from Labour. Conservative votes never surged at all, Labours dropped. The Americans seem to be getting Giddy and thinking this is some left vs right fight, it just doesn't work that way over here, more complicated and Brexit was the main issue (along with an un-electable Labour leader).

Tories will continue to be Tories, and when Brexit is done and dusted, Labour get a leader that is actually electable, the next time around I suspect this will look very different.

I'm just wondering what will happen with Scotland, how can that vote be ignored? strange and uncertain times it is!




posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 06:15 AM
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originally posted by: valiant
a reply to: gortex

People keep glossing over this abstaining in votes from Labour. Conservative votes never surged at all, Labours dropped. The Americans seem to be getting Giddy and thinking this is some left vs right fight, it just doesn't work that way over here, more complicated and Brexit was the main issue (along with an un-electable Labour leader).

Tories will continue to be Tories, and when Brexit is done and dusted, Labour get a leader that is actually electable, the next time around I suspect this will look very different.

I'm just wondering what will happen with Scotland, how can that vote be ignored? strange and uncertain times it is!


There were about +400,000 people over the 2017 election numbers that voted for the Tories or Brexit Party.
However that is just the totals.
In the areas where the Tories gained seats there was abig switch from Labour to Tories and Brexit. THAT is where the election was won and it did represent a major shift.

The reason this switch happened is clear. Brexit. There was a 2+ year effort by the Labour party to betray their voters in those areas by stopping Brexit and the electorate punished the Labour party.

So yes - the Tory vote did surge where it mattered.
What happened is that the Tory's lost votes in some seats that they lost in 2017 also but surged in some seats that they had previously lost in 2017.

Let me give you one of the areas where the Tories surged - Bassetlaw.

Tories 2017 votes = 22,600..... 2019 votes = 28,100 That is a 5.5k increase on a total votes in the area of 50k - a massive surge.
Throw in an increase for the Brexit party of 5k votes and it's clear to see the huge swing away from the left.

So, you can legitimately say that the Tory vote count increase was minor overall - about 300k nationally, but you miss the point.
The Tories DID surge in the new areas that they won. Labour voters switched to Conservative in huge numbers in protest at the betrayal of Brexit.
It was certainly NOT just Labour voters abstaining as you suggested.
edit on 14/12/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 06:26 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

It was less than 300,000 in Tory votes. You are not saying anything different to what I was getting at, I am not missing the point and I get your point on some of the local areas, but at the same time in others the difference was tiny, literally hundreds of votes, that is just as important to look at, as is the overall vote. A 1.2% upvote for Tories vs a 7.6% drop for Labour pretty much shows you exactly what happened across the country and why that happened we all pretty much know and expected.

I didn't suggest it was just the Labour vote abstaining either, I said it is being glossed over, which it is!



edit on VamSaturday32am1231 by valiant because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 06:31 AM
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a reply to: purplemer

Independence and the EU are a contradiction.

If you want independence then fair enough.....but you'll never be independent being an irrelevant part of a dictatorial and undemocratic EU.

And just as many people here in the North East deserted Labour because of their intense dislike of Corbyn and Momentum many Scots may have voted SNP as an expression of their disillusionment with the political elite in Westminster - a sentiment many of us share - but come crunch time they may well shy away from opting for 'independence', again.

As a supporter for a second confirmatory referendum on EU membership if IndyRef2 resulted in a close vote for Scottish independence would you then be consistent and support a confirmatory referendum?



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 06:37 AM
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originally posted by: valiant
a reply to: UKTruth

It was less than 300,000 in Tory votes. You are not saying anything different to what I was getting at, I am not missing the point and I get your point on some of the local areas, but at the same time in others the difference was tiny, literally hundreds of votes, that is just as important to look at, as is the overall vote. A 1.2% upvote for Tories vs a 7.6% drop for Labour pretty much shows you exactly what happened across the country and why that happened we all pretty much know and expected.

I didn't suggest it was just the Labour vote abstaining either, I said it is being glossed over, which it is!




It was over 300k additional for the Tories - about 330k.
principalfish.co.uk...

The Tories surged in the the areas they flipped from 2017.
In the main Labour voters did not abstain - they flipped to Brexit, Tories, Lib Dems and SNP.
So it's not really being glossed over - it's just it was not a major driver of the result.
The Tory surge, flipping votes from Labour in key areas, is the main headline - and likelwise the SNP surge in Scotland

edit on 14/12/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 06:42 AM
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originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: purplemer

Independence and the EU are a contradiction.

If you want independence then fair enough.....but you'll never be independent being an irrelevant part of a dictatorial and undemocratic EU.

And just as many people here in the North East deserted Labour because of their intense dislike of Corbyn and Momentum many Scots may have voted SNP as an expression of their disillusionment with the political elite in Westminster - a sentiment many of us share - but come crunch time they may well shy away from opting for 'independence', again.

As a supporter for a second confirmatory referendum on EU membership if IndyRef2 resulted in a close vote for Scottish independence would you then be consistent and support a confirmatory referendum?



There are zero circumstances that legitimise a second referendum on the EU. Ditto Scotland.
You can;t have a once in generation vote and then change your mind a couple of years later because you claim things have changed. Things are always changing. Do you want a referendum every time something changes? What if we have a 2nd referendum and something changes again? A third? A fourth when it changes again?


edit on 14/12/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 06:51 AM
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originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: M5xaz

Its a dark and desperate night for the UK.

We had truly appalling choices....the leaders of ALL the major party's are thoroughly unfit for high office.

The thing is, this has been more of an anti-Corbyn vote than anything else.
Its a call for The Labour Party to return to its core values and represent their traditional core support.

I can not emphasise just how unfit for office any of the options were.

Personally I'm a passionate Brexit supporter.....Boris Johnson is going to force an appalling Brexit deal on us and he represents everything I hate about this country.....yet unbelievable he was the least damaging choice.

We're well and truly #ed and I suspect that in a few years time many people might look back on this night with deep regret.



Maybe. But you have to start somewhere and Rome wasn't built in a day. You've at least gone a step in the right direction and that's where it begins. Things can change for the better but there are always bumps in the road friend.



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:02 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

I am talking about the increase in Tory votes vs 2017, not how many more votes they got than Labour. The last time I looked it was 270,000 more votes, that's not exactly the picture being painted by many. So yes it is being glossed over. Labour didn't all flip otherwise those numbers would look very different across all parties.



edit on VamSaturday03am1231 by valiant because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:08 AM
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originally posted by: valiant
a reply to: UKTruth

I am talking about the increase in Tory votes vs 2017, not how many more votes they got than Labour. The last time I looked it was 270,000 more votes, that's not exactly the picture being painted by many. So yes it is being glossed over. Labour didn't all flip otherwise those numbers would look very different across all parties.




It was 330,000 additional votes vs 2017.
The picture being painted of a Tory surge is correct as I have explained. They surged in the areas they took from Labour. Labour voters, in the main, did not abstain. They voted for the Tories, Brexit, Libs and SNP.
The vote totals were more or less the same between 2017 and 2019 but Labour got 2.6m less and those votes, in the main, went to the other parties.
There is no story about Labour voters abstaining being glossed over, because it didn't really happen.

Vote totals 2017 vs 2019

Conservative +330,000
Lib Dems +1,300,000
UKIP/Brexit +50,000
SNP +270,000
Green +340,000

TOTAL gains from other top 6 parties = 2.29m
Total LABOUR votes lost = 2.6m

Broken down by area it's clear that the Tories and SNP surged.
So did the Lib Dems, but they just missed out in a numbr of areas - where Labour voters switched to try and beat the Conservatives with tactical voting but largely failed.

edit on 14/12/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:21 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

I am a massive supporter of The British Union and firmly believe we are better together.
We concentrate far too much on the few things that divide us rather than the many, many things that unite us.

But, and it's a massive but, we have to recognise that the increase in SNP representation in Westminster at least justifies a certain level of serious consideration into the possibility of holding another independence referendum in Scotland.

I fully understand the arguments against this, and largely agree with them.
But we can't escape the fact that the Scots themselves may want one.
We can not be selective in our support of The Right to Self-Determination.

And quite worryingly we have to recognise the rise in Irish nationalism.
Support for Ulster remaining in the UK had been steadily growing prior to Brexit.....even in traditional Republican strongholds.
It remained steady after the EU referendum.
But since Boris Johnson's capitulation over Northern Ireland in the appalling Brexit deal he is trying his best to force upon us support is dwindling.

People like to gloss over realities in order to suit their own preconceived ideas.....and this is a classic example of that.
The fact is that Boris Johnson's election could very well result in the complete break up of The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Personally I'd like to see radical reform of our Union; increased devolved power to ALL the regions within some sort of Federal framework.
But we can not, and should not, deny people the right to self-determination.....providing their is enough support and justification for such an expression of opinion.



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:24 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

I was just looking at the numbers, 1.5% drop in overall vote vs 2017 so you are actually right about the abstaining, although it happened just not as much as I first thought.

Still I don't believe those numbers show a massive surge for Tories. 1.2% overall vs 2017.






posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:27 AM
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originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: UKTruth

I am a massive supporter of The British Union and firmly believe we are better together.
We concentrate far too much on the few things that divide us rather than the many, many things that unite us.

But, and it's a massive but, we have to recognise that the increase in SNP representation in Westminster at least justifies a certain level of serious consideration into the possibility of holding another independence referendum in Scotland.

I fully understand the arguments against this, and largely agree with them.
But we can't escape the fact that the Scots themselves may want one.
We can not be selective in our support of The Right to Self-Determination.

And quite worryingly we have to recognise the rise in Irish nationalism.
Support for Ulster remaining in the UK had been steadily growing prior to Brexit.....even in traditional Republican strongholds.
It remained steady after the EU referendum.
But since Boris Johnson's capitulation over Northern Ireland in the appalling Brexit deal he is trying his best to force upon us support is dwindling.

People like to gloss over realities in order to suit their own preconceived ideas.....and this is a classic example of that.
The fact is that Boris Johnson's election could very well result in the complete break up of The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Personally I'd like to see radical reform of our Union; increased devolved power to ALL the regions within some sort of Federal framework.
But we can not, and should not, deny people the right to self-determination.....providing their is enough support and justification for such an expression of opinion.



If I were PM in this situation, here is what I would do - for the sake of harmony as opposed to what I believe (which is that there should be no 2nd Scottish referendum)
I would offer Sturgeon a Scottish referendum in 2022 and make it clear (i.e. don't hide the reason) that Scotland would stay part of the UK until AFTER we have left the EU. That would give the Scottish people ACTUAL experience of the UK out of the EU in order to form a considered opinion of their future without all the BS and propaganda swirling around BREXIT.

edit on 14/12/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:35 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

That's definitely an option worth considering.

Anything is better than dismissing their calls outright without giving them any sort of consideration or even respectful acknowledgement.
Entering into open and candid discussion with them could be a starting point.

I suspect any IndeyRef2 would be another close call and would be incredibly divisive regardless of the outcome.
I don't think the UK as a whole needs that at present and more to the point neither does Scotland.
Let's concentrate on trying to move this country forward and then see where we are in a year or two's time.



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:35 AM
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originally posted by: valiant
a reply to: UKTruth

I was just looking at the numbers, 1.5% drop in overall vote vs 2017 so you are actually right about the abstaining, although it happened just not as much as I first thought.

Still I don't believe those numbers show a massive surge for Tories. 1.2% overall vs 2017.





There was a 0.6% drop in total votes between 2017 and 2019.
The numbers overall show an increase in Tory votes of 330k (whis is a 2.4% uplift on 2017), so not a massive surge overall - BUT, what happened is that the Tories surged in certain areas that were Labour strongholds... really big gains (like 25%!). In other areas they actually did worse, losing some votes to Lib Dems and the SNP giving them smaller margins of victory in some seats vs 2017. That is why the overall net gain for the Tories is only 2.4%



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:40 AM
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originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: UKTruth

That's definitely an option worth considering.

Anything is better than dismissing their calls outright without giving them any sort of consideration or even respectful acknowledgement.
Entering into open and candid discussion with them could be a starting point.

I suspect any IndeyRef2 would be another close call and would be incredibly divisive regardless of the outcome.
I don't think the UK as a whole needs that at present and more to the point neither does Scotland.
Let's concentrate on trying to move this country forward and then see where we are in a year or two's time.



I do agree that there is little gain from stonewalling.
The noise won't die down.

Don;t be so sure that the Scottish have changed their mind from 2014 to a level that would make the vote close, though.
The latest poll I saw just over a week ago had the vote at 56-44% AGAINST independence (YouGov)
www.scotsman.com...

That is a wider margin than the actual referendum in 2014.

There is a perception (not from you, but from others I have spoken to or heard from) that an SNP vote = a YES to independence. That's not even close to being the case.

By the way - with Scotland I think the PM needs to do more than sort out indyref. Just like we need to do more for the North of England (and other areas outside of the London and the surrounding suburbs), I'd like to see a plan the focuses growth and investment in areas that need it most. That is an acid test for Johnson. If wealth continues to flow to London and the home counties he's going to lose votes and support.

edit on 14/12/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:45 AM
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a reply to: Freeborn

Most people in Scotland have had enough of this tripe from Westimster. It really is not anything person. I am sure there are many peeps south of the border that if given the chance would vote independence from Westminster. II am all for regional demcoracy. If peeps want self rule let them have it. To deny it is to deny the process of democracy.

To answer your question the reason I would prefer to be in Europe than the UK is the EU has far better env laws and human right laws. These things are important to me.

Yes maybe it contradictory to you.

Happy days




posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:46 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

Yet with the casual disdain Johnson seems to be showing them I suspect those figures may change.
44% is hardly an insignificant amount.

Let's hope he shows a more conciliatory and respectful manner once the obvious elation from his victory dies down a bit and the reality of governing becomes more apparent.



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:46 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

Where are you getting the numbers? everywhere I look keeps saying 1.5% turnout drop and 1.2% Tory vote vs 2017.



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:49 AM
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originally posted by: purplemer
a reply to: Freeborn

Most people in Scotland have had enough of this tripe from Westimster. It really is not anything person. I am sure there are many peeps south of the border that if given the chance would vote independence from Westminster. II am all for regional demcoracy. If peeps want self rule let them have it. To deny it is to deny the process of democracy.

To answer your question the reason I would prefer to be in Europe than the UK is the EU has far better env laws and human right laws. These things are important to me.

Yes maybe it contradictory to you.

Happy days



'Most people'?
You don;t speak for most people.
According to the last referendum and recent polls MOST PEOPLE in Scotland want to stay part of the UK.



posted on Dec, 14 2019 @ 07:49 AM
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a reply to: purplemer

We've all had enough of the political elites that infest Westminster and the thoroughly unfit for purpose party political model.
But that's at least equally true of the EU as well.

Specifically which environmental and human rights laws?



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