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How Confident are You in Trump's re-election?

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posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 04:47 PM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun

There you go again sounding like a broken record,
demonrats are favorites with the bookies...

Well kiddies,mama has to go for now,trust me,I'll be back!
edit on 9-12-2019 by mamabeth because: (no reason given)



(post by TooCloseToTheSun removed for a manners violation)

posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 04:52 PM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun

Actually not. You offer a better payout to the one you think will lose to entice bettors to place bets and thus losing money to you. You use part of that profit to pay the winners and pocket the rest.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 04:55 PM
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a reply to: Ahabstar

What are you "actually not"-ing?

You just stated the obvious about odd setting. Bookies give better payouts to the ones they think will lose. No snip.

Its not contradicting my point so I have no idea what you were going for.

They are offering better payouts to the one they think will lose (republicans in this case).



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 05:17 PM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 05:46 PM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun

Every Democrat candidate has a better payout than Trump, thus projected to lose. Yet a “generic unnamed” Democrat is going to beat Trump which is the de facto Republican.

Now there is a way outside chance (probably on the order of 2500 to 1) of a different Republican hitting the bricks which would lend a push towards a Democrat until named. But even I could bury the current crop of Dems starting only at the Convention as a Republican and probably as a Democrat three months ahead of their convention with little more than livestreams and press coverage/interviews.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 06:46 PM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun

umm have you changed it so it says what the odds are for each candidate? now admittedly im not a gambler least not this type but www.oddschecker.com... but if switch it so it goes by favortie instead of by name for example it puts Donald trump at the top implying he is the favorite to win 2020.......

it goes trump at the top,then biden,then ol mayor pete,then sanders

so lets look at a site you didnt share www.oddsshark.com... their politics tab


Life comes at President Donald Trump fast. The morning after a transatlantic flight back from the NATO summit – which he touted as a great success – the president learned that Democrats are moving forward with articles of impeachment against him. If the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives votes in favor of impeachment, Trump will join Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton as presidents who faced a Senate trial. Johnson and Clinton were not, however, removed from office and with the Republican-controlled Senate the ultimate deciders of Trump’s fate, his odds to win the 2020 presidential election are up week over week from +130 to +125.
so they imply like your own link that trump is still the favorite to win in 2020


www.oddsshark.com... solely for amusement sake i post their post from the night of the 2016 election in which paddy broker for example got HAMMERED for paying out to clinton betters before the election even happened

The ballots have been counted and Donald Trump visits the White House on Thursday as president-elect. It was a wild election campaign and an even crazier election night as the results came in and showed that the polls, predictions and oddsmakers were not going to get this one right. Paddy Power in the UK got it so wrong that they paid out Clinton bettors in advance and in doing so cost themselves $4 million by the time November 8 was over. As the polls closed and results began to pour in on election night, books continued to update their odds even as official results were incoming. And while the oddsmakers got it wrong before election night, they were willing to call Trump the favorite earlier than CNN or any other news channel was willing to declare things for “The Donald”. From just before 8 p.m. Eastern time until midnight when numbers came off the board, here are some of the biggest swings in the odds that OddsShark was tracking.
so while they intially got their odds wrong they were more accuate in calling trump the winner before CNN did at least

at 758pm it was clinton -700 to trumps +425
by 1152pm it was clinton +1000 to trumps -2000 so as they eloquently put it

Looking at these numbers it's clear, even in politics, you can never count out the underdog.
of which trump was in that equation and while im pretty confident he will win re-election what with the incumbent advantage,no new wars,and a stellar economy i still plan to get as many like minded individuals to the polls on election day just to do my own small part to increase those odds by well not underestimating the under dog and with almost a whole year tell election time it could very well change but it does seem trump is still the favorite to win 2020

older link www.cnbc.com...

Key Points President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states. Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout. The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.


www.vox.com... vox is allready preparing for him to win once again via EC

Still, the survey shows why fluctuations in Trump’s national approval rating — which currently indicates he’s the second least-popular president at this point in his term in modern times, ahead only of Jimmy Carter — should be taken with a grain of salt. What ultimately matters is the Electoral College. And in that contest, Trump remains in a strong position to win — even if he loses the popular vote by an even wider margin than in 2016.


he also has this advantage over the dems their voters are clustered in big cities in the high population states but the electoral college elects presidents not popular vote www.governing.com...

Like most people who write about politics, I got the last presidential election wrong. I was pretty sure Hillary Clinton would win. But I was right about one thing: I thought she needed a big advantage in the popular vote to prevail in the Electoral College. I guessed that she needed about 5 percent, and that she would get that and become president. She ended up with 2.1 percent, and it wasn’t enough. Why wasn’t it enough? The answer became indisputably clear in the first days after the election. Millions of Clinton votes were piled up in enormous clusters she didn’t need in states where her victory was a foregone conclusion. Clinton won California by 4.4 million votes, New York by 1.7 million, and Illinois and Massachusetts by nearly a million each. California alone dwarfed her national popular vote margin over Donald Trump of 2.87 million. A couple of years later, it seems safe to predict that a narrow lead in the national popular vote won’t be enough to elect a Democratic president anytime in the immediate future. What doesn’t get so much attention is the existence of the same phenomenon in elections farther down the ballot, for Congress and especially for state legislatures. It is a case of clustering in cities, to the Democrats’ distinct disadvantage.
its actualyl a pretty interesting read and near the end even covers the possible foibles of not using the EC like what happened to france in the 1950s where there was no clear winner and the revolving door of prime ministers that ensued


foreignpolicy.com...

Earlier this month, a poll by the New York Times and Siena College showed that Trump, despite overall low approval ratings, remains strong in six key swing states he won in 2016. This should alarm Democrats. Warren fares worse against Trump in those states than Biden or even Sanders. The Times’ electoral guru, Nate Cohn, who directed the survey, said the new numbers indicate Trump may have an even greater advantage in the Electoral College in 2020 than he did in 2016. The president, in other words, could lose the popular vote this time by an even wider margin and still be reelected.

so yeah this is why i think he will win in 2020



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 06:53 PM
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I am confident that a bunch of empty land and the minority of Americans will vote for Trump.
The outcome is still too far out to make a call though.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 07:23 PM
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I think Trump is going to win by a long shot after the last couple years of the Dems making complete jokes of themselves.

I most likely will not vote for Trump due to the excess amount of debt he is putting our country in. I usually vote Libertarian.

Trump fans turn a blind eye to to the fact that Trump has printed more money than Obama did during the bailouts at this point. He's loading up so much debt on us that it will completely break our economy one day.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 07:25 PM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 07:31 PM
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I feel good about the President getting four more years.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 07:35 PM
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a reply to: Nickn3

I wish the evil leftist douche-waffles would get twenty to life.




posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 07:56 PM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun

I think we should have a side bet on what your last username was.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 08:08 PM
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originally posted by: TooCloseToTheSun


Democrats are favorites with the bookies. Fact.



Well Vegas isn't FACT! See how my fact is bigger than yours so it must be correct... Facts would be like post numbers such as I did.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 08:21 PM
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originally posted by: okrian
I am confident that a bunch of empty land and the minority of Americans will vote for Trump.
The outcome is still too far out to make a call though.

Oh yes, are we talking about all the empty land where the minority that you'd like to silence grows and raises the majority of the food you eat? Among just one of the many other commodities you couldn't live without.



posted on Dec, 9 2019 @ 11:56 PM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun
60/40 in favor of re-election.



posted on Dec, 10 2019 @ 12:16 AM
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originally posted by: mtnshredder

originally posted by: okrian
I am confident that a bunch of empty land and the minority of Americans will vote for Trump.
The outcome is still too far out to make a call though.

Oh yes, are we talking about all the empty land where the minority that you'd like to silence grows and raises the majority of the food you eat? Among just one of the many other commodities you couldn't live without.


Well as a vegan that buys local from the farmers market... not exactly. And your point is irrelevant to empty land being what elected the president. You know as well as I do that it wasn't the majority of Americans. What a pointless argument. Your computer and the internet was brought to you by cities. And most other advancements. And the tech that made the farming equipment possible. We all work together... & who said anything about silencing the empty land that actually doesn't have people on it? Ugh, how is it possible to miss the mark that hard.



posted on Dec, 10 2019 @ 12:29 AM
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a reply to: TooCloseToTheSun

President Trump cannot possibly win re-election against Joe "The Crusher" Biden. That is why he's Bribing and Extorting other countries to do what they can to find dirt on the Biden family.



posted on Dec, 10 2019 @ 01:18 AM
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originally posted by: Nickn3
I feel good about the President getting four more years.


The last election has helped me to remember that good can trump evil especially if good is very careful. We seem to be seeing a showdown between good and evil being played out before us everyday.



posted on Dec, 10 2019 @ 08:07 AM
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originally posted by: TooCloseToTheSun
So many super confident posters. I'm assuming they've got their savings firmly on Republicans for the election.

I mean you can't be that confident and not have the balls to back it up... right.

Thanks to those who gave honest answers. Bookies aren't in the market to lose money, but I wouldn't rule anything out.

Imagine if I was 99% sure on something and a bookie offered me double my money!

I wouldn't be able to believe my luck.... or would seriously consider why I might be so wrong and perhaps my view on reality has become warped by memes and catchphrases.

Things that make you go hmmmm


Keep in mind, those odds start based on where they think the money will flow, and change based on the bets that come in. What the books aim for is equilibrium based on odds and money.

In other words, if a lot of money is being bet on one team (or candidate), the odds will start paying out more heavily on the other, to entice more bets.

They're not looking to win or lose based on the outcome, they're looking to get their 10% or so on ALL bets collected, regardless of team.

If you look at the odds on the link OP provided, you'll see right now (super early in the game), odds are pretty close to even for both parties, real close to 1:1 at most books.



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