Jerome Powell Lying to the Public

I watched this live. I have several open positions in the market right now so this has been a real hot topic in the trading community the last 2 days. Literally the entire market / world is paying attention to these events.



Let me try to sum up the parts that pissed me off. Powell in the first few minutes opens his speech by saying that the economy is strong and it's supported by consumer spending, he iterates this position several times as he is railed with questions. Some of them good but obviously no one is asking the important questions here. Well almost anyway.

The interesting part here is that he follows up his statement about the strong consumer spending by stating that in contrast business investment and outputs remain week and manufacturing output is declining.

HELLO!! If business output and manufacturing is weak how can employement and consumer spending remains strong!!!!!

How is no one talking about this! Unbelievable, I know he's not stupid enough realize this isn't true. This entire Fed meeting was incredibly hawkish.

Skip ahead to what I think is the most important topic of the day, THE REPO MARKETS. Powell states that they don't know why the bigger banks stop adding liquidity to the repo market. I don't know if this is true or not but this is not good. How can the big banks not know what the reason for them holding liquidity back from the market? What is going on that even the Fed isn't aware of it? I'm not even sure if he's telling the truth or not.

I don't know the time stamps however this entire meeting is worth listening to. It's one of the best FOMC meetings I've seen.

Less goods being sold, but the goods that are sold are at a higher price could make it a wash.

a reply to: dubiousatworst

Heres what i dont get


If business are producing less and cutting back...

What are consumers buying? It just doesnt make sense.

a reply to: toysforadults
The savings rate in the US has gone from 5.7% (1996) to 8.1% (2019), mostly due to millenials saving at far higher rates than any other living generation. They are the largest population segment now.

Rather ironically the market flavor has changed and they are buying quality goods rather than disposable plastic goods which are more expensive and labor intensive.

Other than that electronics/digital goods and services.

originally posted by: toysforadults
HELLO!! If business output and manufacturing is weak how can employement and consumer spending remains strong!!!!!

How is no one talking about this! Unbelievable, I know he's not stupid enough realize this isn't true. This entire Fed meeting was incredibly hawkish.

Simple. Consumers are taking on debt. This the part of the business cycle ensuring nobody ever gets ahead in the game. We have super computers with deep data analytics ensuring the economy is perfectly engineering so there's enough money in the system to keep people from rioting but not enough money to allow people to get out of debt. Right now the economy is the perfect Goldilocks zone of no rioting maximum debt.

Now why would it ever be in the interest of bankers to ensure everyone has the maximum amount of debt?

a reply to: dubiousatworst

For the most part we got reamed by the recession for several years

I dont spend on crap I do have a nice car which I purchased as a strategic investment because Toyotas last forever and buying a used car comes with massive risk

Other than that I literally spend no money on anything other than the bare minimum apartment things like that

originally posted by: dubiousatworst
a reply to: toysforadults
The savings rate in the US has gone from 5.7% (1996) to 8.1% (2019), mostly due to millenials saving at far higher rates than any other living generation. They are the largest population segment now.

The people spend so much money on food, energy, and healthcare there's not enough left over for anything else. Since we've had hyperinflation from oil going up to $145.93 per barrel pricing of goods and services have never returned back to normal.

"The absolute peak occurred in June 2008 with the highest inflation adjusted monthly average crude oil price of $145.93 / barrel."

This is why the economy stinks and the workers are deeply screwed

It's okay. Marx always said laissez faire capitalism is always followed by communism. This is because unfettered greed would result in the governments currency collapsing to nothing in value as it is concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. Once the currency becomes worthless people in the breadlines will demand MORE government not less. See you in the breadlines comrades!

a reply to: dfnj2015

I bet if we looked at the debt we could get a better picture

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: dfnj2015

I bet if we looked at the debt we could get a better picture

Is there a way to do that ?

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: dfnj2015

I bet if we looked at the debt we could get a better picture

"In June 2019, U.S. consumer debt rose 4.3% to $4.1 trillion. That surpassed last month's record of $4.09 trillion. Of this, $3.03 trillion was non-revolving debt, and it rose 5.8%. Most non-revolving debt is education and auto loans."


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originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: dfnj2015
I bet if we looked at the debt we could get a better picture

Is there a way to do that ?

Everyone I know has tons of debt.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: dfnj2015

I bet if we looked at the debt we could get a better picture

Is there a way to do that ?

usdebtclock.org...

a reply to: dfnj2015

I have none!

a reply to: toysforadults

Its not called lying its called Spin, and anyone who feels he is the Captain sailing the financial ship competently., can relax and smile. Anyone who looks for the logic and reasons for what they are doing has the dire feeling that the ship is heading for the rocks. Even after the ship hits the rocks and starts taking on water, it can be "We are sinking" Or it's "Just a bump along the road" It just depends how long you want to live thinking all fine, or when to start panicking.

originally posted by: dfnj2015

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: dfnj2015
I bet if we looked at the debt we could get a better picture

Is there a way to do that ?

Everyone I know has tons of debt.

95% of people here live on debt, it's the norm.

a reply to: scraedtosleep

Thanks, I'll check it out later.

a reply to: dfnj2015

Yeah it’s called a Mortgage.

Rent is just pissing away hard earned money.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: dubiousatworst

Heres what i dont get


If business are producing less and cutting back...

What are consumers buying? It just doesnt make sense.

It's probably being driven by service related industries instead of manufacturing.

originally posted by: 38181
Rent is just pissing away hard earned money.

Not always.

Buying a home right now would be pissing away hard earned money. You're better off renting until the next housing downturn, then buy.

The corrupt establishment is beginning to eat itself