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What's the black swan event the Federal Reserve sees that we don't?

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posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 06:55 PM
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CNN



Those T-bill purchases drew enormous demand, banks requesting nearly four times as much cash from the Fed with .




These aggressive steps from the Fed, along with the strong demand from banks, shows that the overnight lending market is not back to normal. Banks are still clamoring for cash -- and the Fed is rushing to fill the vacuum.




The NY Fed eased the stress by injecting tons of cash, marking its first rescue in the overnight lending market since 2008.




"It is worrisome that these numbers continue to rise, and we don't yet have a very clear explanation," said Colas.


The last one is the one you should be paying attention. SOMEONE knows what's happening and why and they aren't telling anybody. That should have all of you worried.




posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 07:07 PM
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www.zerohedge.com...



The only possible explanation, is someone really needed to lock in cash for month end (the maturity of the op is on Nov 7) which is when a "No Deal" Brexit may go live, and as a result one or more banks are bracing for the worst. The question, as before, remains why: just what is the source of this unprecedented spike in liquidity needs in a system which already has $1.5 trillion in excess reserves? And while we await the answer, expect stocks to close pleasantly in the green as dealers transform their newly granted liquidity into bets on risk assets.



posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 07:11 PM
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almost everyone that thought about buying short term bonds/paper isturning their backs and zipping up their wallets... the buying is collapsing

just like the EZ Auto Loans, for say 5 years... those people don't buy Bank or Treasury Paper/bonds..
.but neither are they paying their Loans.... even recent brand new auto loans are in default at about a 400% increase from normal

~I reckon the buyers are buying a new car to live-in then skipping town to a better job market, knowing the banks or Re-Po man won't likely get them any time soon~

most everyone is hand-to-mouth cash flow
edit on th31157222164127142019 by St Udio because: (no reason given)




ETA: usawatchdog.com...

link has a 44:44 YT with interview of Michael Pento

(There is free information on PentoPort.com. To become a subscriber to Michael Pento’s podcasts, click here. There is a five week free trial option.)


edit on th31157222236927262019 by St Udio because: (no reason given)



in the OP linked YT... the speaker stated the Banks are in Trouble, more so than in the great recession

your housing defaults along side the car loan defaulta are sapping the Banks' reserves & they are cash strapped because the masses are defaulting enmasse on bank loans, finance obligations through other outlets ---- so that B anks are sinking to bankruptcy and can't buy Fed default assets nor bonds/paper/et al.... the B lack Swan is the bankers are all gone-fishing
edit on th31157222313227382019 by St Udio because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 07:15 PM
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www.movoto.com...



Median List Price $450,000 $489,900-8% $614,450-26%



posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 07:16 PM
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a reply to: St Udio

Yup, the housing market is cratering across the country as well, even in places like Silicone Valley and Seattle. Things are getting real.



posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 07:18 PM
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originally posted by: scraedtosleep
a reply to: toysforadults

Could this be related?
Lot of ceo's resigning.
www.resignation.info...



www.businessinsider.com...



During the first three quarters of 2019, 1,160 CEOs left their positions, according to the staffing firm Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.
This figure exceeds the number of CEOs who departed during the same nine-month span at the height of the 2008 recession (which saw 1,132 CEO departures).
The tech sector has seen the second-highest number of CEO departures, with 154 executives in that industry leaving their positions.



posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 07:45 PM
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Bonds or a bank is failing, which is it??



posted on Oct, 27 2019 @ 09:16 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

They know the whole system is stuffed, and any one with any sense is organizing hard assets while they can. CEO's would be well up with the play.



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 02:49 PM
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Just read someone commenting that the repo market lock up may be related to either a large foriegn bank ( think Deutsche Bank) failing and/ or unforeseen systemic issues with negative yielding bonds. The second part makes a lot of sense as to what has happened.

The repo market is a place where banks, insurers, and others get their liquidity needs. A bond with a negative 1 percent coupon with 6 years to maturity is only going to be worth 94% of its face value if you accept it as collateral and then get stuck with it, if your debtor defaults. So you'd be a fool to lend anything like it's face value. There is a lot of this negative yielding sovereign debt on EU bank balance sheets right now.

The repo market should be the most boring function of the financial system. To be locked up this long, and requiring this level of FED action says that the banksters have once again pooped in the pool and will soon be screaming for a bailout because no one saw this crisis coming.

edit on 28-10-2019 by jefwane because: Typo



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 04:41 PM
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a reply to: jefwane

Isn't that why the Fed is buying Tbills again?

Duestche Bank has a surprise in store for everyone



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 07:34 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Everything is expressed in US dollars, many countries are buying in because their countries fiat is weaker so its a perceived flight to safety. So America has to hold Euros and issue dollars. The only place for these dollars to hang out is in the stock market because everything else cant cut the mustard. Hence the stock market reaching new highs. This has the effect of keeping the price of Gold and Silver suppressed because it keeps demand down. This allows central banks to buy at suppressed prices.
Every economy on Earth exists because of stable food supply, if the supply shows any sign of instability the effect on the stock market will be the same as oil interruptions. According to the MSM the poor harvest is nothing to worry about, even though the price of a box of Kellogg's has gone up thirty per cent in Australia. This inflation in food prices should suppress the retail sector over the Christmas period, with the penny dropping after Xmas, when a flight to safety should begin. Many asset managers are putting a per cent age of gold into clients portfolios. But if the Central Banks have bought all the cheap precious metals, and demand goes up for what's left in the event of a rush, that would put a strong competitor against the Fiat dollar. Since the American dollar is the only game in town, and has to chase Gold/Silver as demand increases we could be looking as massive inflation in the new year at least under this scenario.



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 08:15 PM
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a reply to: anonentity

once the Fed drops rates on Wednesday, there might be a massive move into bonds and eventually PMs, the volume has been dead waiting for the Fed meeting and we gap up in the morning with zero follow through day after day

I'm expecting a solid sell off and move into bonds and PMs Wednesday-Friday in that time frame



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 09:08 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

I wonder... simply because if they move to bonds, the Fed just pumps up the share market again, its not like they have to print notes, the money is just created on a screen. None of this new money does anything for the real economy, in fact it cant because theirs nothing to invest in outside the Stock market without getting into deep water. This illusion could go on for a long time. Since theirs a lack of cash in the real economy, demand is falling as Hooverville accelerates.



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 09:14 PM
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a reply to: anonentity



look at the S&P the last few days, gap up, no follow through flat day, this is basically the last 2 weeks (which can be somewhat normal going into FOMC)



Look at the volume, today it was 2 million in the first hour then dead for the rest of the day, I could take 30-40 minute breaks from watching the market and come back to the same exact candlesticks, but you see how it's everyday there's a gap up then flat/ dead market for the rest of the day with super low volume

it's like there's no institutional investing happening right now
edit on 28-10-2019 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 28 2019 @ 09:28 PM
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a reply to: anonentity



Look at the channel the SPY is in...



it gaps up over to ATH today (all time high) and then literally rides right along the trendline I've had sitting there for about 2 weeks and then closes right below it, that's a very weak break up/ out.. no institutional commitment to ATH's



now look at the SPY (S&P ETF), you see how it has been forming this larger pattern of reaching highs then correcting down, another high, correction, another high, correction?

With the Fed dropping rates for the 3rd time in a row, repo market chaos, and POMO... something is up.. one or more of the big banks is failing.

www.investopedia.com...



Repo 105 was a type of loophole in accounting for repurchase (repo) transactions that the now-extinguished Lehman Brothers exploited in an attempt to hide true amounts of leverage during its times of trouble in 2007-2008. In this repurchase agreement, since updated to close the loophole, a company could classify a short-term loan as a sale and subsequently use the cash proceeds from the "sale" to reduce its liabilities.



www.zacks.com...



Per the source, the first loan worth $340 million, backing the leveraged buyout of Smart & Final grocery chain by Apollo Global Management, was priced at a discount of 90 cents on the dollar by a group of banks led by Deutsche Bank, on the one hand. Moreover, such deal eroded the fees to be earned by the bank on the transaction. Though the amount of loss was not known, it was incurred as investors refrained from buying the debt under the prior terms offered.


This is Germany and the EU's banking crisis bleeding into the US stock markets and banking system.

www.theguardian.com...

markets.businessinsider.com...



Germany's economy may have already slumped into recession, its central bank says



posted on Oct, 30 2019 @ 07:40 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

I came across this discourse in a Gold orientated thread posted way back in 97'. Basically it states that if you were a middle eastern oil producing nation, you were never going to sell the only thing your country had of real value for American dollars which may end up worthless in a hundred years time. , but you would sell it at least a proportion of it as long as some of the deal was done in real money i.e.. Gold. So a deal was set up to facilitate this and keep all parties happy. The whole discourse maintains that the price of gold has to be kept controlled because the moment it doesn't a bull market develops and Gold goes into lockdown. It goes on to claim, that because the Western society is oil dependent, the control of the Gold price remains essential. So a form of stealth purchasing is used so as not to upset the apple cart. When this discourse was produced Gold was about 350 US dollars an ounce. Twenty years later its around 1500us per ounce. The LMBA which fixes the price opened its books around the time this discourse was produced, it literally shocked the world as to how much gold was being used as a real money source to settle transactions around the world. Now that the US dollar is being used to bail out Banks and institutions with regards to QE. The spot price of Gold with regards to partial settling on oil deals would have a lot of pressure on it to go up. But the price of oil would also go up, which would drive the West into a deeper recession. Until as the article states controls on the price of Gold would cease to exist and it would skyrocket until it would have to be withdrawn from sale, when this point will happen cant be pinpointed with any accuracy but it will coincide with the rise of the US Dollar and the rise in the price of Gold at the same time. Guess what it happened the other day.www.usagold.com...



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