posted on Oct, 31 2019 @ 04:26 PM
"The Concept of SETI is Fundamentally Flawed
First of all, there is the whole issue around the ability to contact ET. As I showed in my blog post “Could Gliesians be Watching Baywatch “, it
is virtually impossible to communicate with any extraterrestrial civilization beyond our solar system without significant power and antenna gain. The
world’s most powerful radio astronomy dish at Arecibo has a gain of 60 dB, which means that it could barely detect a 100 kilowatt non-directional
signal generated from a planet 20 light years away, such as Gliese 581g, but only if it were pointed right at it. More to the point, what are the odds
that such a civilization would be at the right level of technology to be communicating with us, using a technique that overlaps what we know? To
estimate that, first we need to estimate the duration that even we will be using radio waves to communicate. We began broadcasting in the early
1900’s with reasonably clean and large signal levels many years later. As I write this, we are seeing the end of the radio era. Ham radio is a dying
hobby. Shortwave radio, once teeming with interesting stations, is now a desert of sporadic third world, communist, and religious radio broadcasts.
Over the air TV broadcasting is giving way to cable and satellite, and over the air communications techniques are increasingly low-powered and local
(e.g. wifi) and/or spread spectrum, which are all basically undetectable far from earth. In summary, our period of useful radio transmissions is about
50 years. Assuming (and this is a BIG assumption) that our neighboring ET friends also have a 50-year window of radio technology, we can use this and
a form of Drake’s equation to estimate our odds.
And the total is 1.25•10-22. For those who don’t like scientific notation, how about .0000000000000000000000125."